A weekend for away teams.....

Week Five: College Football Picks

Greetings College Football Fans,

A top five team has tumbled every week this season. Let’s see what happens next.

Big Games:

Oklahoma @ Miami
Remember when these teams used to battle in the 80’s? If Miami had not lost to Virginia Tech last week this game would be a throwback with the same implications on the national championship spotlight that existed twenty years ago. That’s OK, because this game is still huge. You’ve got to love Miami QB Jacory Harris. Did you see the story on him during Game Day last Saturday? How can you root against him? If Miami can beat Oklahoma this Saturday, it will prove they are a contender once again. With a Miami win this weekend, they will show the character it takes to be champions (bouncing back from the VT loss). If Oklahoma can win they will get back into the national title chase. As I’m typing, ESPN just announced Sam Bradford will not play against Miami.

You were witness last week to what Virginia Tech’s defense did to Miami. I like Virginia Tech’s defense a lot, but I’d take Oklahoma’s defense anytime over VT’s. Virginia Tech’s defense held Miami’s running game to only 59 yards and brought significant on Jacory Harris all afternoon. If you think about the Miami games against Florida State and Georgia Tech, Harris had time. Against Virginia Tech, Harris was just 9-25 for only 150 yards and one pick. Oklahoma’s defense has a better pass rush than Virginia Tech’s. The Sooners have had 12 sacks in three games. They also lead the nation is tackles for a loss. Oklahoma’s defense also leads the nation in run defense only allowing 41 yards per game. Oklahoma wins on the road. Oklahoma wins 26-17.


USC @ California
We all want a college football playoff. Consider this a PAC-10 playoff game, because the loser will be out of the Rose Bowl race. California can’t seem to get out of the “we’re almost good”bucket. They were absolutely blown out against Oregon last week. Cal has a great opportunity to show the country they are better than almost good. Bottom line here, whoever loses this game can pack it up for the season.

USC’s offense hasn’t been this bad since pre Pete Carroll. Last week against Washington State USC put up big numbers. However, Cal is playing at home and their much better team than Washington State. The Golden Bears have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the country. I think Cal will pick it up and beat USC this year. Cal wins 33-27. USC is done.


LSU @ Georgia
Who is the quietest team in the country? LSU is now ranked #5 in the country (very sneaky). I’ll say they sure don’t seem like a #5 team. LSU just barely squeaked past Mississippi State last week, holding them in a goal line stand to win the game. Remember the magic #5. One top five team has lost every week this season. Georgia is also finding ways to win games. It’s been a weird year for the Dawgs. Shoot outs against Arkansas and South Carolina and a last second field goal to beat Arizona State last week. Georgia has clearly rebounded from their first game against Oklahoma State, but they are incredibly inconsistent. Georgia really needs to win this game. The Dawgs following two games are on the road and then they travel to Jacksonville for the cocktail party against Florida.

Weird games like this come down to turnovers. LSU is fifth in the country in turnover ratio and only has three total turnovers this year. Georgia is 115th in turnover margin. LSU beats Georgia between the hedges. LSU wins 39-15.

Auburn @ Tennessee
Here is a social status game. Both teams want their social status back. Auburn is actually scoring points this year. The offense and defense both look good and new coach Gene Chizik is off to a great start. Auburn is much improved when you compare them to last year’s team. For example, last year Auburn only scored 207 points the entire season (17 points per game). Auburn’s competition so far this year hasn’t been awful. They have beaten Mississippi State, West Virginia and Louisiana Tech who blew out Hawaii last night. Let’s examine Tennessee…They played a good game against Florida, holding them to 23 points in a Tennessee loss. The Vol’s beat Ohio University (not Ohio State) and Western Kentucky. Almost forgot about Tennessee’s loss to an improved UCLA in Knoxville.

I asked my good friend Wade, (a diehard Tennessee fan) what Tennessee’s biggest challenge is this year and he explicitly said “QUARTERBACK”. Looking at Jonathan Crompton’s (UT QB) passing stats, he has thrown seven touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. On the bright side Tennessee’s running game is descent. However, it is going to be tough for Tennessee against a not perfect but competitive Auburn defense. Tennessee will have to rush for over 200 yards to make up for their inefficient passing game and Auburns defense isn’t that bad. Auburn wins a close one. Auburn wins 26-24.


Texas A&M @ Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas)
Do you remember the old Southwest Conference? That old conference consisted of all the Texas schools and Arkansas. This is an old Southwest Conference game. These team are just average, but this should be an entertaining game. These two team are the types that will beat an undefeated team and ruin their season while Arkansas and Texas A&M have nothing to play for. Both teams will probably make a bowl this year, but they are average at best. So why am I writing about them and wasting our time?, pure entertainment value, offense and nostalgia. Arkansas was blasted 35-7 last week against Alabama (my #1 team in the country). Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (Michigan transfer) is 6’7” and will play in the NFL in a few years. He can put up points and Arkansas’s defense can too (team can score at will on Arkansas). Did you know Texas A&M had the #1 offense in the country averaging 575 yards per game? Their defense so far has only given up 55 points in three games.

It takes eleven players to field a defense. However, Arkansas has only been fielding seven. The Razorbacks have no secondary at all. Arkansas’s other seven players are a little better and can apply a moderate pass rush, but Texas A&M QB Jarrod Johnson is mobile and an above average passer. Georgia QB Joe Cox lit up the Arkansas defense for over 50 points and Alabama QB Greg McElroy threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M will have a field day. Texas A&M wins 24-10.


Wisconsin @ Minnesota
This game is not always on the radar, especially if you don’t live in the Midwest. IF you look at the history of this game it’s always a shootout. Not surprising since both teams are playing for the Paul Bunyan Axe every year. These two teams are tied for first in the Big Ten (along with four other teams). But they are the only teams tied for first in the Big Ten that are playing each other this week. Last week Minnesota won an impressive game against tricky Northwestern 35-24. This week’s game will be the first road game for Wisconsin this year. Wisconsin has won by vary narrow margins this year. They beat Fresno State in overtime, and beat both Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight. Wisconsin has to look forward to playing Ohio State and Iowa the following two weeks after their game against Minnesota.

Wisconsin has a very strong running game with John Clay leading the way for the Badgers. Minnesota’s run defense only looks good against average running games. Wisconsin won’t need to rely only on the run against Minnesota. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien will throw to many receivers. He doesn’t make many mistakes and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass as their defense gave up 309 and 252 yards to Northwestern and Cal respectively. Wisconsin wins the Ax. Wisconsin wins 38-27.


Michigan @ Michigan State
As a diehard Wolverine fan, this game scares me. Michigan State has its back against the wall with a 1-3 record. The Spartans are supposed to be a good balanced football team this year. Mark Dantonio was supposed to have a breakout year as Michigan State’s coach. Michigan State lost to a better Wisconsin team last week, handed a victory to Notre Dame and literally gave the game away to Central Michigan. Now it’s Michigan’s tern to be given a gift by the Spartans. Not so fast my friend. Michigan is a few players and two years away from competing for the national championship. Last year Michigan State was competing for the Big ten championship while rival Michigan was in the cellar. Things seem doom and gloom for Michigan State this year, but if they can beat rival Michigan on Saturday life seems a little sunnier for the Spartans.

Michigan State has a defense that doesn’t do anything fancy. They don’t blitz or stunt very often. They tend to stay in a base defense and play very aggressively. Notre Dame had no problem running against the Spartans and Wisconsin put up 193 yards last week. If Michigan State can’t stop the Wolverines rushing attack the Michigan backfield will have a field day (QBs included). Wolverine QB Tate Forcier is banged up so Denard Robinson will get more snaps. The first play of his career at Michigan, Robinson ran for a 40 yard touchdown. Watch out for him against the Spartans this week. Michigan beats Michigan State 38-20. The Wolverines move to 5-0.


Quick Picks

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against SEC teams this year. Vanderbilt was only able to put up 210 yards total offense against LSU and only 157 yards against Mississippi State. The Ole Miss defense will be tough against Vanderbilt rushing offense and they will put lots of pressure on Vandy’s QB Larry Smith.
Ole Miss wins 28-7.

South Florida @ Syracuse
South Florida took Florida State behind the woodshed last week. So far, South Florida’s defense has only allowed 27 points all season (in four games). Their defensive line led by George Selvie is disrupting opposing offenses before the play even gets started. South Florida wins 25-19.

Washington @ Notre Dame
USC and Stanford ran for 571 yards against Washington. I strongly assume Notre Dame’s game plan is the run the football. Notre Dame is at home and more talented than the improved Huskies. Notre Dame wins 24-14.

UCLA @ Stanford
Stanford has a great running back in Toby Gerhart. History shows that when Toby rushes for less than 100 yards Stanford loses. UCLA will shut him down. The Bruins win and stays undefeated. UCLA wins 23-21.

Oregon State @ Arizona State
Arizona State’s defense is the real deal. Last week in Athens, ASU held Georgia’s offense to just 20 points. Arizona State leads the nation in turnover margin, which helps their struggling offense. Arizona State beats Oregon State 12-3.

Enjoy all the games this week. Until next week…..