College Football: Freaky Week Four


There is something to be said about trusting your initial instincts. The games last week crushed me. I can’t tell you how I agenized over picks and changed winner to losers at the last minute. This week I’m going to trust my initial instincts. Let’s see what happens…..

Games of the Week:

Miami @ Virginia Tech
This is could be the Coastal Division championship game. Miami has looked tremendous with impressive wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. Miami has the opportunity to beat three straight ACC ranked teams if they can beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. Miami plays Oklahoma next week and if they go into that game 3-0 and beat Oklahoma, watch out!! Virginia Tech just barely beat Nebraska last week on the last play of the game escaping a 1-2 start. Last week Nebraska held Virginia Tech’s offense to almost nothing until the last drive of the game. The only team Virginia tech has look really good against is Marshall (given they have played Alabama & Nebraska).

Here goes that instinct thing (oh boy). Virginia Tech is clearly going to have to put massive pressure on Miami QB Jacory Harris. No one has been able to do this yet. (Dr. Lou is on TV right now)..
I think Jacory Harris will struggle against Virginia Tech’s defense. Virginia Tech’s secondary is allowing only 164 yards per game and has only allowed one touchdown pass all season. Virginia Tech does not lose in Lane Stadium, so my instincts are yelling Virginia Tech in the upset. Virginia Tech wins 27-19.


Texas Tech @ Houston
If you play fantasy college football you definitely have to watch this game. Houston’s offensive coordinator (Dana Holgorsen) used to work for Texas Tech’s head coach Mike Leach. This game will be nothing but offense.

Houston has no pass rush what so ever. If they can’t put pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will dissect and exploit Houston’s defense. Taylor Potts high school teammate, wide receiver Lyle Leong has replaced NFL hold out receiver Michael Crabtree as the go to receiver. Texas Tech played well against Texas and could have beaten them in Austin. I’m confident that Texas Tech can beat Houston in Houston. Texas Tech wins in a shootout 57-40.


Iowa @ Penn State
You may recall that Penn State’s only loss last year (until they played USC in the Rose Bowl) came on a last second field goal to Iowa. Iowa is not supposed to beat Penn State on a last second field goal, at least based on recruiting class rankings. However, Iowa wins its fair share of games against Penn State. Iowa seem to have their number.

Defenses have put a tremendous amount of pressure on Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi. I mean it’s been easy for other teams. Can Iowa fight off the pass rush that Penn State will put on Iowa? I don’t think this game will even be close. Penn State wins 34-15.


California @ Oregon
So far Cal is meeting the media’s expectations. The winner of this game will get a great jump on the rest of the PAC-10, especially with USC’s loss to Washington last week.

Oregon’s defense is allowing 30 points a game so far this year. Their defense has only gotten to the opposing quarterback twice all this season. Cal will clearly exploit Oregon’s defense. Cal’s QB Kevin Riley is playing better than expected this year. The Bears running game is incredible with the best (literally) running back in the country in Jahvid Best (my Heisman choice so far). Both teams will have to play with balanced offensives, however Oregon is very run heavy and not a very efficient passing team (particularly playing from behind). Even though this game is in Oregon (very loud stadium) Cal wins 41-21.


Arizona State @ Georgia
My gut is tingling……Uh Oh. Georgia’s offense hasn’t been this productive since about 2004. The Dawgs have put up a combined 93 points against Arkansas and South Carolina. However, Georgia’s defense could use some work. Georgia is an exciting team to watch as they have rebounded nicely from their season opening loss to Oklahoma State. They are slowly climbing up in the rankings. Arizona State is also playing great football. They just haven’t played anyone at all this year (Idaho State & Louisiana-Monroe).

Remember, Georgia QB Joe Cox had the flu against Oklahoma State and had to be flown in on a private jet as a game time decision. Now that he is feeling better, he’s thrown seven touchdown passes in the last two games. Georgia also features two stud receivers in AJ Green and Michael Moore. My gut isn’t tingling enough to pick an upset, but I think Arizona State will make it close. Georgia wins 26-21.


Washington State @ USC
Why did I list this game under, games of the week? If you want to see perfect offensive and defensive execution check this game out. Basically, USC’s season is over. The 16-13 loss last week to Washington ended any hopes of a national championship (lottery odds at this point). While USC was losing to Washington, Washington State was rallying from behind to beat SMU. How many times can you recall WSU celebrating while USC is sulking in the same week?

Reality will set back in for both teams soon. USC will be angry this week. I’m one to pick upsets, but there is no way Washington State beats USC this week. I mean no way. USC wins the first half 35-0. If you want to see perfect football, from USC this week tune in to this game. This game will look like the Saints offense and Steelers defense versus not the Lions, but Washington State. USC sins 51-7 taking it easy in the second half.


Other Good Games: The Quick Picks

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech at home is a great match up for the much improved but this year untested Tar Heels. Georgia Tech gets back to their winning ways. Georgia Tech wins 33-18.

South Florida @ Florida State: South Florida starts a freshman quarterback this week in Tallahassee. FSU’s strong run defense will force the young QB to throw. FSU offense looked unstoppable last week against BYU. Florida State wins 25-17.

Wake Forest @ Boston College: A week ago Boston College only threw for 25 yards on 21 attempts. Wake Forest stacks the box against BCs ground attack. Wake Forest QB Ryan Skinner looks great. Wake Forest wins on the road 21-14.

Texas Christian @ Clemson: TCU is not used to this kind of speed. Clemson should have beat Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. Clemson’s defense has some much more speed than what TCH has seen this year. Clemson running back CJ Spiller will get loose against TCU from the backfield and on special teams. Clemson squeaks past a talented but out matched TCU team 28-25.

Fresno State @ Cincinnati: Fresno State’s defense is suspect against the run. Watch Cincinnati running backs Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey. Cincinnati wins 37-12.

Missouri @ Nevada: Nevada’s defense has not created a turnover yet this year. Nevada’s offense has given up four fumbles and four interceptions (the nation’s worst turnover ratio). Missouri puts up almost 500 yards of total offense. Missouri wins 36-17.

Southern Mississippi @ Kansas: This is an interesting game. Kansas wins a close one 31-29.

Indiana @ Michigan: Michigan is 3rd in the nation in rushing, averaging 271 yards per game. Michigan should control field position with their improved defensive and special teams. However, I think this game may be closer than Vegas suggests. Michigan wins homecoming 36-24.

Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin has played in close games this season, but their run defense is excellent. Wisconsin is huge and plays a physician style of football. Wisconsin will not lose to Michigan State. Wisconsin wins 43-38.

Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State’s defense is tough. They actually played a brilliant game against USC. Ohio State shuts down the Juice. The Buckeyes win 33-14.

Purdue @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defensive backs are awful. Purdue is an effective passing team and QB Joey Elliott will go to town. Purdue wins 23-14.

Arizona @ Oregon State: Oregon State has two sacks all season. Arizona QB Nick Foles Shouldn’t be to rushed. Arizona’s defense has only given up only two touchdown passes (when the games were already over) all year. This game will resemble the old “Dessert Storm” Arizona defenses against Oregon State. Arizona wins 31-24.

Washington @ Stanford: Can you say LET DOWN? Stanford is much improved with an impressive offense. The Cardinal (not Cardinals) have a great running back in Toby Gerhart and quarterback Andrew Luck. Gerhard is averaging more than 100 yards per game and Luck is getting better every week. Stanford wins 34-18.

LSU @ Mississippi State: Mississippi State can’t score enough points to keep up with LSU. LSU’s defense isn’t as intimidating as those teams a few years ago, but they are still very good. LSU just needs to play conservative and control the ball. No problem, LSU wins 51-26.

Arkansas @ Alabama: It will be a long day for Arkansas’s defense. Alabama’s rushing offense will go to town against a weak Arkansas front seven. Alabama will put up at least 250 yards rushing. Alabama will have a big game passing too. Alabama wins big 39-3.

Florida @ Kentucky: Florida will get its passing game in line this week. Louisville lit up Kentucky on the deep ball. Florida will open things up against Kentucky in preparation for the tougher games in the SEC. Florida’s offense is ranked second in the nation in rushing averaging 289 yards per game. Florida wins easily 37-7.

If I have more time next week, I will start analyzing data and sharing some interesting statistics and their implications on the game.

Enjoy your weekend!