Alabama vs. TCU ?

Sorry for my absense. Here are some very quick picks for this weeks games.

Will Alabama play TCU in the National Championship? If Alabama beats Florida and Nebraska beats Texas will TCU hold on in the polls over Cincinnati?
Here is how it will play out today. Enjoy.

Florida 23 Alabama 28

Texas 20 Nebraska 21

Cincinnati 37 Pittsburgh 25

New Mexico State 7 Boise State 51

Georgia Tech 26 Clemson 17

Arizona 25 UCS 29

California 40 Washington 30

Houston 24 East Carolina 29

West Virginia 28 Rutgers 21

Robby D

Short and Sweet

Greetings College Football Fans,

There is a direct correlation between work time and blog time. When business is slow, I'm blogging and when business is booming I'm not blogging as much. As you can tell the blog posts have slowed down which is a great sign for the household economy. Maybe my micro-expirence is a reflection of the national macoeconomic situation. Hopefully getting better...

With that said, I'm rushing to give you some quick picks, Not much text this week but here are some predictions.

Top 25 games:

Florida International 10 @ Florida 51

Chattanooga 9 @ Alabama 50

Kansas 14 @ Texas 50

TCU 28 @ Wyoming 10

LSU 13 @ Mississippi 12

Ohio State 35 @ Michigan 10

Oregon 21 @ Arizona 10

Minnesota 3 @ Iowa 30

Penn State 31 @ Michigan State 17

North Carolina State 30 @ Virginia Tech 63

Wisconsin 27 @ Northwestern 17

California 23 @ Stanford 19 (Upset Allert)

Oregon State 38 @ Washington State 23

Duke 31 @ Miami 35

San Diego State 13 @ Utah 36

Air Force 29 @ BYU 21 (Upset Allert)

Virginia 15 @ Clemson 26

Memphis 13 @ Houston 44

Note: Teams that beat USC are 4-11 the following week. Cal Beats Stanford.

Enjoy the games.

Robby D.

No Blog this Week

Greetings college football fans. It was a crazy work week so I was not able to post. However, I will be back for week 12. Stay tuned for launch of "Math & Sports", which will go live after college football season.

Talk with you next week.

Robby D

For those at least 30 years old.

Week 10 Football Predictions:

Greetings College Football Fans,

College football season unfortunately goes to fast. We only have am month left before bowl season. The games are getting more and more important as teams go into the final stretch.

Let’s dive right in…..

The Big Games this week:

LSU @ Alabama
Will LSU pull off a huge road upset and position themselves for the National Championship race or will Alabama beat LSU and stay on course to play Florida in the SEC Championship game? Last week against Tulane, LSU dominated the Green Wave 42-0 both running and passing the football (clearly no power house). Alabama has been vulnerable lately and less convincing in their wins, while LSU seems to be getting stronger with convincing a win against a significant opponent a few weeks ago in Auburn winning 31-10. Alabama will need to start playing like a team deserving of national championship aspirations if they want to go 13-0. Bama will have a chance this Saturday to show what it can do in their high profile rivalry game. Florida showed what it could do last week in their rivalry game against Georgia. If Alabama can’t beat LSU this weekend, it will launch the Tigers back into the national title hunt.

LSU’s defensive front is at a huge disadvantage to Alabama’s offensive line. This is not the defensive line that won it all three years ago. The Tigers are last in the SEC in sacks and very average against the run. Alabama’s defense is one of the best in the country against the run. LSU will not be able to run effectively against the Tide. The best way for LSU to make big plays this week will be through “trickeration”.

This game will be a big time defensive battle. Offensively, LSU will have the passing advantage while Alabama and running back Mark Ingram will own the running game. Alabama wins 24-14.


Ohio State @ Penn State
Iowa is faced with an Ohio State sandwich to end their season. One piece of bread is Northwestern while the other is Minnesota. The tasty part in the middle will determine the Big Ten championship next week if Ohio State beats Penn State this weekend. If Penn State beats Ohio State then Iowa will have a clear path to the Rose Bowl baring any food poising from the elements of the sandwich. Regardless of sandwich analogies and Iowa, this game will be huge for BCS aspirations in Happy Valley and Columbus. If Penn State wins this weekend and run the table in their final games finishing 11-1, they will have a BCS invitation for sure.

Iowa has been the only tough team Penn State has played this year and the Nittany Lions lost at home. Ohio State’s best win this year has been against Wisconsin and their second best against Navy. The last two weeks Ohio State has outscored its opponents 83-7 (Minnesota and New Mexico State), bouncing back from their loss against Purdue. Once again (without the bad sandwich analogy), if Ohio State can beat Penn State this weekend, it sets up a huge game in the battle of the eyes (Buckeyes & Hawkeyes).

This will be a close game. Unfortunately for Ohio State their kicker was hurt in the huge battle last week against New Mexico State, which could mean wide left or right for the Buckeyes. This also means that Ohio State will have to score touchdowns in the red zone versus field goals. Every time Terrell Prior tries to improvise, the now healthy Penn State defense (Sean Lee & Navorro Brown) will stop him in his tracks.

Terrell Prior arguably had his best game this year against USC the second week of the season. We have all seen how inconsistent Prior has been all season and while I claim that Penn State’s defense will stop him in his tracks it still won’t be easy. Prior will have to play a better game than he did against USC for Ohio State to have a chance to beat Penn State. On the Penn State side Darryl Clark will have to be a closer for the Nittany Lions. Last year against Ohio State, Clark was knocked out of the game and didn’t contribute to closing the deal and against Iowa he threw an interception that led to Iowa’s game winning field goal. Mariano Rivera is not a good comparison to Darryl Clark. However, Clark will not need to be a closer against the Buckeyes. Penn State wins 19-9.


Oregon @ Stanford
Last week Oregon had the most convincing win against USC in the Pete Carroll ear, almost assuring the Ducks path to the Rose Bowl. Oregon might be the best team in the country as they ended the Trojans seven year PAC-10 reign.

Oregon is running on all cylinders. The Ducks have one of the most potent running games in the country behind freshman running back LaMichael James and quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Defensively, Oregon leads the PAC-10 in scoring defense and passing efficiency defense (statistics that strongly correlate to wins), with a no household names. One of those unknowns is redshirt freshman safety John Boyett who has emerged as a leader on this talented defense. Boyett got his shot when upper classman free safety T.J. Ward was injured. Boyett is one of the best open field tacklers in the country.

Could Oregon be ripe for an upset after their huge win last week? When Stanford has faced teams that run the ball effectively the Cardinal (singular mascot) has lost. Oregon wins this game 35-16.


Oregon State @ California
If Oregon State can win this weekend they will have locked themselves into their fourth straight bowl appearance. Cal has won their last three games (UCLA, Washington State and Arizona State) and they are playing their best football of the season. Oregon and USC were both able to dominate Cal and Oregon State will represent their third toughest opponent this weekend. This game features two of the best running backs in college football in Javid Best and Jacquizz Rodgers.

Cal’s Javid Best and Shane Vereen (other RB) are fast and have the ability to get to the second level of defenders quickly. The running game has really exploded since quarterback Kevin Riley has gained consistency. Cal has run up 117 points in their last three games. Oregon State’s defense has not been successful generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks resulting in big plays. Cal should be able to race up and down the field if Oregon State can’t get to Kevin Riley.

Cal’s defense has the speed to slow down Jacquizz Rodgers. The Bear defenders will have to stop Rodgers before he gets started. Cal will win a high scoring game in Berkley 36-26.


Oklahoma @ Nebraska
Remember the Big-8? Those were the days when Nebraska and Oklahoma would play every year in a games that would determine the Big-8 champion. If you are less than 35 years old, you know nothing about this great rivalry. Back in the day this was the game of the week every single year with serious national championship implications. This rivalry is straight up old school. Once the Big-8 expanded to the Big-12, the North and South divisions were created and Oklahoma and Nebraska were divided up. The game between these two teams hasn’t been the same since. However, it’s still a game worth watching. The Big-12 North is awful, with no ranked teams. Nebraska has been playing to the level of their Big-12 North peers (awful), and still in the hunt for a chance at the Big-12 championship game probably against Texas. Nebraska has been spanked by Texas Tech and Iowa State in the last three weeks. This would be a huge win for Nebraska before their next game against Kansas.

When the Sooners get rolling on offense they are tough to stop. The days of Nebraska’s black shirt defense are gone (at least for now). Nebraska’s offense has turned the ball over, been inefficient running, and nonexistent passing the football. Against Nebraska, Oklahoma will just need to protect the football, nothing spectacular. Oklahoma has had injuries to their offensive line and will play underclassmen this weekend. Nebraska will get star running back Roy Helu back from injury this weekend. If he doesn’t provide respectable production to the running game, Nebraska doesn’t have a chance. Oklahoma dominates this old school matchup to the tune of 41-17.

All the others……

USC 35 @ Arizona State 10
South Carolina 30 @ Arkansas 17
Connecticut 9 @ Cincinnati 16
Florida State 7 @ Clemson 24
Vanderbilt 7 @ Florida 52
Wake Forest 19 @ Georgia Tech 33
Fresno State 23 @ Idaho 7
Indiana 21 @ Wisconsin 47
Northwestern 27 @ Iowa 42
Oklahoma State 13 @ Iowa State 3
Kansas 24 @ Kansas State 14
Boise State 29 @ Louisiana Tech 19
Virginia 13 @ Miami 37
Purdue 26 @ Michigan 25
Duke 14 @ North Carolina 25
Navy 35 @ Notre Dame 37
Syracuse 18 @ Pittsburgh 30
TCU 52 @ San Diego State 22
Central Florida 10 @ Texas 38
Houston 29 @ Tulsa 18
Washington 26 @ UCLA 29
Louisville 12 @ West Virginia 34
BYU 33 @ Wyoming 23

Until next weekend my friends.

College Football Week 9

College Football Week 9: Big Pack-10 Showdown

Greetings College Football Fans,

Pardon my absence last week but I had to take a bye week. Work load and travel got the best of me.
Great to be back this week! Let’s dive into the big games.

Big Games

SEC

Mississippi @ Auburn
Ole Miss has seemed too fallen of the hype wagon. They are dealing with two losses this season, one to South Carolina and the other against Alabama. Not bad company, particularly Alabama. Ole Miss was in both of these games and made a strong effort to come back in both losses. Ole Miss could possibly be the third best team in the SEC by the time we reach bowl season. Ole Miss could still actually play in a New Year’s Day bowl. Surprisingly, Ole Miss hammered new and improved Arkansas last week and it seems things are looking up for the Rebels. We know Auburn likes to pass the football and Ole Miss is 3rd in the nation is pass efficiency defense.

Auburn also likes to run the football with Senior RB Ben Tate. He was on a roll in the first five games rushing for 100 plus yards until Auburn faced Arkansas. Against the Razorbacks Tate only rushed for 67 yards. Auburn’s passing game has slowed down significantly as well during their loss of momentum. It will be imperative to get Ben Tate back on track with an efficient passing game. We all know offensive football is about creating space and to beat Ole Miss and they will have to get Ben Tate in space. Ole Miss finally generated strong production from their multipurpose back Dexter McCluster against Arkansas. My hunch is that the Ole Miss defensive front will dominate Auburn’s o-line from the start. Auburns offense will continue to struggle. I like Ole Miss winning 17-16 in a close game on the road.

Georgia vs. Florida in Jacksonville
A bit of a downer this year at “The Cocktail Party” with Georgia falling below their teams typical expectations. If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, they will be positioned nicely to win the SEC East, particularly if Tennessee beats South Carolina. As the Florida fans yawn at that last sentence, their expectations of course are winning another national championship and going down as maybe the best college football team of all time. This game could a dangerous one for the Gators. They haven’t been their sharp explosive selves lately.

Florida has been struggling to close the deal against teams they would have beaten by forty points last year. The Gators passing game is unproductive with Tim Tebow seemingly still not at full speed from the concussion. Their receivers haven’t been effective either particularly when you compare this group to the receiving corps of the recent past. Their expectations and everyone else’s are so high that regardless of the Gators output their performance just seems average. We must not forget this football team is still pretty good with enough team speed to compete with the NFL in a track meet. Florida’s defense has been banged up, but they are getting healthier and the timing couldn’t be better. Georgia will need to be inventive this weekend, because any traditional play calling will doom any hopes of the Dawgs moving the football against this Florida defense.

The Heisman race seems to now be favoring Ingram (Alabama Running Back), so it Tim Tebow wants to win it again “The Cocktail Party” is the stage to make up for lost momentum. It appears that he is trying to do too much, but I suppose that’s how he plays football. These two teams clearly don’t like each other. If there were a week for Florida to make a statement it would be in this love fest against Georgia. Georgia has had two weeks to rest for this game. Maybe we will see some new looks from the Dawgs, but it won’t matter. Florida star linebacker Brandon Spikes is back this week and Florida’s offense will just do what it needs to do to beat Georgia. Have a martini for me Gators; you continue to roll against the Dawgs to the tune of 32-10.

Big-12

Texas @ Oklahoma State
What the chances of Texas rolling through the rest of their schedule without contention? Great odds! The Big-12 is very average this year and the Longhorns are in a class by themselves in this conference. What about Oklahoma State? It’s interesting to consider that they are doing as well as they are with the loss of All American wide receiver Dez Bryant (Who lied to the NCAA for something that wasn’t illegal, only to be suspended for lie) and All Big-12 running back Kendal Hunter to a knee injury. Without these two the Cowboys are starting to resemble the Oklahoma State that everyone expected at the beginning of the year. The Cowboys are currently ranked 14th in the nation with only one loss. The national championship is not out of reach for this team yet. It they can beat Texas and win the remainder of their games anything’s possible for this team. Sound crazy? Let’s pretend for a moment that the Cowboys win the rest of their games. They would have beaten Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Missouri and Oklahoma at home. Not bad!! If this happens, the loss to Houston will be almost be expunged. I’d rather lose to Houston than Washington (as USC did). Back to reality…Oklahoma State needs to beat Texas first. Get this statistic; Oklahoma State has only beaten Texas twice since 1944! Texas currently holds an 11 game winning streak against the Cowboys. Texas’s last two wins over Oklahoma State have only been for a combined seven points and this game should be no different.

It’s tough to respect a five game winning streak when three of those win were against Baylor, Grambling and Rice. This is who Oklahoma State has battled against three of the last five weeks of the season. The other two games where against Texas A&M and Missouri. Oh well. The Cowboys defense has never been stellar, with a below average pass rush and a secondary that allows points. Oklahoma State will have a very hard time running against that great Texas defense. Only one team has rushed for more than 100 yards and only one team has scored a rushing touchdown against the Longhorns. This happens to be the same team, any guesses? Louisiana-Monroe! But it was the first game of the season and no one has come close since.

You may recall that Colt McCoy has been starting since his freshman year. Early on he used to run with the football instead of stay in the pocket (as many young QBs do). Defenses forced McCoy in the pocket the following year and he developed into a great passer. Now he can effectively run and throw and is a significant threat. McCoy let Texas in rushing and passing last year. This year McCoy’s numbers have been a little down, but that’s okay, because all he has to do is control the game, protect the ball and make good decisions. Oklahoma State will be fired up for this game. The first half will be close 17-14ish with Oklahoma State winning at half time. QB Zac Robinson will do his best, but it won’t be good enough against the Longhorns. Look for the second half to resemble a scrimmage as Texas pulls away with a crushing victory. Texas wins 35-17.

PAC-10
USC @ Oregon: The Game of the Week!!
Here is a good old heavy weight match up. The stakes can’t get any higher in the PAC-10. The winner of this game is almost destined to play in the Rose Bowl. Arizona is statistically in the mix as well, but I can’t see Arizona going to Pasadena before USC or Oregon. USC has won the PAC-10 seven years in a row. It appears that Pete Carroll has the best job in the country. However, Oregon , looking like they will be a big disappointment with their opening loss to Boise State (and the punch) has been rolling over opponents ever since. The Ducks have won six games in a row while battling injuries along the way. The BSC collateral damage will be extensive in the college football world with the outcome of this game. Both teams are ranked in the BCS top 10.

USC fans don’t sleep on this Oregon team. Last week against Oregon State, USC gave up 482 yards total offense. The week before against Notre Dame, The Irish passed for 285 yards against the Trojans. What’s up with that mighty USC defense? The Oregon Ducks run the football almost better than anyone in the country averaging over 193 yards per game in their last six games. Oregon running back LaMichael James has gone over 150 yards in thereof his last five games. The Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli seems to be back in full strength after his knee injury. The big question for Oregon will be, can they beat USC with a one dimensional offense? The answer is other teams have. Case in point, Oregon State last year, shocking the Trojans defense by running the football down their throat. The Oregon Ducks have a better passing game than their cross state rival. I like Oregon’s chances at home. Oregon wins a tight one over the Trojans 20-14.


Quick Picks for the other games of interest:

SEC

Mississippi State @ Kentucky
35 27

South Carolina @ Tennessee
28 33

Big-12

Nebraska @ Baylor
29 12

Kansas State @ Oklahoma
7 36

Iowa State @ Texas A&M
19 16

Kansas @ Texas Tech
28 35

Mountain West

UNLV @ TCU
6 50

Wyoming @ Utah
23 41

Big-10

Michigan @ Illinois
32 20

Indiana @ Iowa
7 32

Michigan State @ Minnesota
17 14

Penn State @ Northwestern
20 0

Purdue @ Wisconsin
23 30

WAC

San Jose State @ Boise State
9 51

PAC-10

California @ Arizona State
33 18

UCLA @ Oregon State
29 39

Big East

Rutgers @ Connecticut
16 18

Cincinnati @ Syracuse
27 9

ACC

Central Michigan @ Boston College
31 35

Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt
31 3

Miami @ Wake Forest
20 7

Conference USA

Southern Miss @ Houston
35 45

Independents

Temple @ Navy
9 20

Enjoy the games this weekend!!

Why Cougars Rule!! Week Seven

Why Cougars Rule!! : Week Seven

Greetings College Football Fans,

I’m sure like for most of you it was a crazy work week. It clearly was for me, but a good one.
With that said, I’m just getting around to the college football update this week. It’s Friday night and I’m watching Pitt vs. Rutgers. It’s cold outside here in Atlanta.

This week we will just go down the Top 25 and review the games. Here we go:

It’s a beautiful thing that Florida and Alabama don’t play each other this year during the regular season. These two teams are on a catastrophic collision course for what could be the best SEC Championship Game in history. If both teams maintain their consistent play we will see one versus two in this game. I love it. How about the Red River Shootout this weekend. It will be the first game between Texas and Oklahoma in the Dallas Cowboy’s new stadium. Texas continues to struggle in the first half against opponents. Last week against Colorado, Texas made the Buffalo’s look like a ranked team, and then the Longhorns pummeled them in the second half. Texas can’t afford to have a slow first half this week against the Sooners.

1. Florida Gators (5-0): Tim Tebow played as expected and the Gators came away with a huge win in Baton Rouge. The Gators are at home this weekend against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas looked great in their win against Auburn last week. Florida is favored by 25.5 this week against Arkansas. If you’re in Vegas take that bet. The Gators win big in Gainesville against the Razorbacks. Florida 47, Arkansas 18.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0): The hype is over…Not the Crimson Tide hype, the Ole Miss hype. Alabama took them from Ole Miss, to OLD Miss. The Rebels BSC hopes are over. Last week I suggested Miss QB Snead needs a big week against Alabama and the Tide shut him down. This week the Alabama faces Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Game Cocks in Tuscaloosa. South Carolina may be able to pull off the upset!! Not so fast my friend. Alabama wins a close defensive battle. Alabama 17, South Carolina 7.
3. Texas Longhorns (6-0): Last week Texas played a bad Colorado team in Austin. Texas beat the Buffalos 38-14. I can’t get over the consistent slow starts Texas gets against the weak opponents they’ve faced this year. The Longhorns strength of schedule so far this year is 101 out of 120. This week all that will change on a neutral site against the Oklahoma Sooners. Do you remember last year’s game? Will the Sooners stampede the Longhorns? Texas wins again. Texas 43, Oklahoma 39.
4. USC Trojans (4-1): Last week the USC Trojans had a bye week. Bye weeks are huge in college football, particularly when the team with the week off has such a good coach. I was listening to “The Hurd” on ESPN radio this morning and former Notre Dame great Tim Brown was a guest. He said that Notre Dame Fans expect to beat USC this weekend. I guess Notre Dame has a lot of confidence. USC does have to travel to cold South Bend. USC plays out of conference teams on the road better than any team in the country. It will be closer than usual. USC 23, Notre Dame 17.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1): Boston College is a pretty good football team. Virginia Tech beat Boston College 48-14 last week. This week Virginia Tech has to travel back to Atlanta. I say travel back, because the first week of the season Virginia Tech played Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Bama gave the Hokies a beat-down. This week Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech. This visit to Georgia will make Tech happy. Which Tech? Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 12.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1): Last week Ohio State handled Wisconsin fairly easily. It was tough for the Buckeyes in the first half, and then Ohio State pulled away. This week the Buckeyes travel to Purdue. I have a feeling it will be a tough game, but only in the first half. Ohio State 28, Purdue 7.
7. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0): Last night (Thursday) Cincinnati played South Florida. Remember what I said about having a bye week in college football, particularly when the bye team has a good coach. In this case it was Cincinnati and their coach is one of the best coaches in the country. South Florida gave Cincinnati a tough game but Cincinnati pull it out 34-17, in a game that was closer than the score suggests.
8. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (5-0): TCU played a tough Air Force Academy team last week. Air Force played a great game on their home field in a loss to TCU (24-17). This week Colorado State travels to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs. TCU stays undefeated. TCU 32, Colorado State 19.
9. Miami Hurricanes (4-1): It’s about time the Canes played a team that wasn’t ranked. Miami had their way with Florida A&M last week 48-16, in a well deserved break from the action. This week it gets a little tougher for Miami as they play Central Florida. Miami cruises to a victory. Miami 28, Central Florida 12.
10. Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) : Clearly the best two loss team in the country. The Sooners played an improved Baylor as a warm up game for Sam Bradford in his first game back in action. I think Oklahoma and Texas are evenly matched. As I suggested earlier, the Sooners will soon be the best three loss team in the country. Texas beats Oklahoma 43-39.
11. LSU Tigers (4-1): A well needed bye week for the LSU Tigers. Last week their defense looked impressive against Florida, holding them to only 13 points. If LSU can get their offense together this year perhaps they can be ready for Bama later this year. First LSU has to deal with Auburn next weekend. That should game be interesting.
12. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0): Iowa just keeps winning ugly. Last week it was against my beloved Wolverines in prime time. The importance of home games. The game against Michigan could have gone either way. Michigan QB Tate Forcier was hurt and didn’t play the last two series of the game. Iowa stepped up big in a 30-28 win. This week will be another grinder for Iowa as they travel to Wisconsin. Look for Iowa to get its first loss of the year in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beats Iowa 28-20.
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-1): Georgia Tech made history last week in Tallahassee. They beat Florida State at home for the first time in school history. “Da Gummit” (spelling?), is what Bobby Bowden said after the historic loss to the Yellow Jackets in a high scoring weather delayed shootout (49-44). This week in the battle of the Tech schools the Yellow Jackets lose to a very good Virginia tech team. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 12.
14. Boise State Broncos (6-0): Those bye weeks again. Boise State had the week of before traveling to Tulsa in a game that was up for grabs until the final minute. Tulsa wide out Slick Shelly was wide open on a fourth down play when QB G.J. Kinney couldn’t connect. Boise State lucked out in this game. The Broncos barely won 28-21, and as you can tell from the score it wasn’t a convincing win for Boise State.
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1): “Yawn” , Penn State plays another weak non-conference opponent as they crushed Eastern Illinois 52-3 in a challenging (to stay awake) contest. Don’t look for any blowouts in Happy Valley this week. The Minnesota Golden Gophers come to town. It depends on how you define blowouts. Penn State beats Minnesota firmly 37-7.
16. BYU Cougars (5-1): Last week UNLV hosted BYU and was dominated 59-21 by the Cougars. It would be tough to be a college football player that has to travel to Vegas to play a game. But I guess it’s worse if you’re a college football player and you live in Vegas. Another distracting place to travel to play a game is San Diego. That’s where BYU travels this week to play San Diego State. BYU stays focused and smashes San Diego State 48-19.
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1): I’m still getting over Oklahoma State wide out Dez Bryant getting suspended for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. His suspension kept fans in suspense as Oklahoma State barely beat Texas A&M last week. This week the Cowboys face the Missouri Tigers. The suspense continues and Oklahoma State keeps winning. Oklahoma State 27, Missouri 20.
18. Oregon Ducks (5-1): UCLA looked awful on offense last week against Oregon. The Ducks beat the Bruins 24-10 in Pasadena. Oregon’s next road trip is to Washington after a bye week this week.
19. Kansas Jayhawks (5-0): Kansas barely beat Iowa State last week in a 41-36 defensiveness Big-12 classic. Kansas puts their undefeated record on the line this week against Colorado in beautiful Boulder. Kansas KO’s Colorado 32-18.
20. Wisconsin Badgers (5-1): Wisconsin had a chance to make a statement in Columbus last week but fell way short losing 31-13. Too many mistakes against Ohio State proved to be the difference. Wisconsin returns to Madison to host the Iowa Hawkeyes who are either lucky or good. Iowa’s luck runs out this weekend. Wisconsin 28, Iowa 20.
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1): Back to the Bye week again. This advantage only applies when the opposing team doesn’t also have a bye week and/or the coach is average. Notre Dame had a bye week to prepare for USC, but USC also had a bye week to prepare for Notre Dame. I’ll take Pete or Charlie any day. USC 23, Notre Dame 15.
22. South Florida Bulls (5-1): The Bulls hosted a brilliant Cincinnati team last night (Thursday) on ESPN. Cincinnati does it again beating South Florida 34-17.
23. Houston Cougars (4-1) : Cougars seem to be popular these days, at least in the college football rankings (see BYU). Houston makes it back into the top 25 with a win against SEC Mississippi State. Houston heads to the Big Easy to take on Tulane. Let’s see if the Houston Cougars can beat Tulane the same way the BYU Cougars beat them. Cougars rule!! Houston 41, Tulane 14.
24. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1): Nebraska looked great beating a good Missouri team 27-12. If my memory recalls, Nebraska score all their points in the second half. Will Nebraska get back into the Big-12 limelight this year? The Cornhuskers will have another solid test against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. It will be a fun game to watch as Nebraska gets back to elite form. Nebraska 43, Texas Tech 39.
25. Utah Utes (4-1): Teams that battle from behind and win games on the road are teams to watch and respect. Last week Utah pulled out a close win against Colorado State in Ft. Collins, CO 24-17. UNLV travels to Utah (what a contrast in geographies, again see BYU) this week. Utah makes it look easy. Utah 54, UNLV 27.

Enjoy the weekend college football fans. I look forward to catching up to you next week from Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Michigan vs. Penn State)

Week sIx: First Rob Rankings Post

College Football Week Six


Greetings College Football Fans,

I typically pick games on gut using a little data to back up my assumptions. This week we will take the approach of picking for supreme accuracy. Not only will we look at win/loss accuracy, but we will also attempt to pick against the spread and predict the over/under and beat Las Vegas. Let’s see how it goes!! We also have the fist calculations of the patent protected College Football Rob Rankings.


Can’t Miss Games in Week Six:

Florida @ LSU (Vegas Picks Florida by 7.5, over/under 45.5)

This is a tricky pick. Tebow or no Tebow? We are going to make a strong assumption that Tim Tebow will play against LSU Saturday night. The next questions is, how effective will he be with the remnants of a concussion? He is in concussion suburbia. I still see that hit from Kentucky defender #97. I’ve never seen a hit shown so much in two weeks. The expectations the Gators have put on themselves are beyond winning the national championship. Florida wants this team to be the best college football team in history. Not Florida history…College Football History. If they are going to achieve this beyond lofty goal, they clearly need to win this weekend in Red Baton. If Florida can escape with a BIG win, they will make a great argument for their historic expectations.

LSU will play at home against the best team in the world. The Tigers are ranked #4 in the country and have a chance to win a national title of their own. I’m sure Les Miles made practice as difficult as possible while working on the teams weaknesses. What are their weaknesses? LSU doesn’t score a heck of a lot of points for a fourth ranked team. They only average 27 points per game compiled against Washington, Vanderbilt Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Another challenge LSU has is their defense allows many long sustained drives. Fortunately these drives only resulted in a total of 74 points in five games. However, against Florida, those drives will be converted into touchdowns. LSU could not have made it any closer against Georgia last weekend. On the bright side, LSU is playing at home, at night, with arguably the wildest crowd in the country to see a football game.

When LSU won the national championship a few years ago, they had the best defensive front four in the country by far, this year that front four is just average. Tim Tebow will probably play because the stakes are so high. The fortunate thing for LSU is that Tebow will not be try to bull over defenders head first this week. We will see the fineness version of him. The fineness version of Tebow will get the job done. Florida will win this game and fall just below Las Vegas’7.5 spread. Both teams will have just enough offense to be over the 45.5. Florida beats LSU 28-21.


Auburn @ Arkansas (Vegas Picks Auburn by 2.5, over/under 65.5)

This will be the SEC’s week’s step child game (still important, but not quite as important). We’ve talked about Florida and LSU, but don’t forget about Alabama and Ole Miss. So this game falls in the tertiary step child position. Anyway…This might be the most entertaining game in the SEC this week. Auburn won at Tennessee and is now 5-0. Who would have thought an Iowa State head coach (yes, Chizik was Iowa State’s head coach last year) would turn the storied Auburn program around in his first year. Auburn is finally on the national radar ranked #17 in the country. Will the Tigers (War Eagle?) be ready for the high flying team from the land of Wal-Mart? Last week Arkansas gave an improved Texas A&M team a wood shed beat down in a 47-19 blowout on a semi neutral field (in Dallas). The Razorbacks are the SEC’s number one passing team led by Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett. The ex Wolverine has put Arkansas in the position (at least offensively) to beat any team in the SEC. If Arkansas can beat Auburn, they will make the SEC race wide open. The Razorbacks need beat Auburn, because the following two weeks they face Florida and Ole Miss.

While I’m very impressed with Arkansas’s offense, their defense is quite the disappointment. I suppose Bobby Petrino is only an offensive coach. Arkansas’s defense ranks 105 in opponent yards per play. This stat is a major predictor for winning football games and they are fifteen places from being worst in the country in that catogory. What about the Texas A&M game? A&M only scored 19 points but Arkansas’s defense allowed 345 yards passing and 115 yards rushing. While Arkansas can hang with anyone in a shootout, Auburn is much more efficient when it comes to scoring points than Texas A&M . I strongly suggest that Auburn will be 6-0 after this weekend. Auburn will barely beat the spread and collectively both teams fall just short of the over/under. Auburn shops at Wal-Mart this weekend and comes away with a deal. Auburn beats Arkansas 32-29.


Alabama @ Ole Miss (Vegas picks Bama by 4.5, over/under 46.5)
Can you believe this is the second most important game in the SEC this week? The bigger question, what is up with Jevan Snead? He looks terrible this year. The offense is unproductive and Snead’s passer rating is 68th in the country. According to Mel Kiper, Snead is supposed to be the first QB picked in the NFL draft. The Ole Miss offense was dismal at best against South Carolina in a loss. Alabama is ranked # 1 in the Rob Rankings and deserve to be #1 in the other polls. Alabama manhandled Arkansas a few weeks ago and that first win against Virginia Tech was quite impressive. If Alabama can beat Ole Miss this weekend they should ranked # 1 in the country. (My opinion, but won’t happen unless Florida &Texas lose). Alabama will have to beat LSU and Auburn down the road to increase their chances of a # ranking. Ole Miss is too talented to be playing the underachiever roll the entire season. If Ole Miss beats Alabama, they will shake up the standings in the SEC West.
For Ole Miss to have a chance against Alabama, Jevan Snead will have to step up this weekend. Ole Miss will not be able to run the football against the Alabama front seven led by Terrance Cody. So the pressure is on Mr. Snead to make it happen for the Rebels. Alabama has the best defense in the country and will put incredible pressure on Snead all afternoon. Ole Miss is playing at home which may help them. Home field helps Ole Miss against the spread, but not in the win/loss column. Alabama beats Ole Miss at home 24-22 on the under.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Vegas picks OSU by 16, over/under 47.5)
Ohio State lost a tough game to USC the second game of the season. The game was so close that it took a Matt Barkley 90 yard drive for the game winning touchdown with little time left in the game. Since that tough loss, Ohio State has bounced back with a vengeance beating Toledo, Illinois and Indiana by acombined score of 101-14. Indiana is much improved but Illinois and Toledo are bad. Ohio State ends their season with games at Penn State and Iowa with their final game at Michigan. Before those three tough games Ohio State has Purdue, Minnesota and New Mexico State. So Ohio State could be 8-1 and undefeated in the Big 10 before that last stretch. But they must first beat Wisconsin. The Badgers are 5-0. They are an interesting team as they dominate teams in the first three quarters and let the opposition creep back in during the fourth quarter. They have actually owned the teams they’ve played, but that fourth quarter creep makes games seem closer than they are. If Wisconsin can beat Ohio State this weekend they will face Iowa the following week for what could be a Big Ten title game. Can Wisconsin play four quarters of football against Ohio State? Will Ohio State top their biggest win of the season so far (Navy)? Ohio State and Wisconsin have played some exciting games in the last three years. Terrell Prior led Ohio State to a last minute comeback in camp Randal Stadium last year. Wisconsin beat Ohio State in 2003 and 2004. Ohio State has dominated the Big 10 the last nine years but is only 7-5-1 against the Badgers since 1992.
Terrell Prior is quietly becoming an efficient pocket passer. We haven’t even talked about the 6’5” quarterbacks 4.3 speed. Wisconsin has had an excellent pass rush this year, but their secondary has given up to may short to mid-range pass completions on critical downs. Wisconsin also hasn’t seen a rushing game like the one they will see against Ohio State. Fresno State has a great rushing game, but they threw most of the time against Wisconsin trying to get back into the game. Wisconsin beats the spread but Ohio State wins the game. Ohio State beats Wisconsin 27-20. The combined score will fall on the under.

Michigan @ Iowa (Vegas picks Iowa by 7.5, over/under 47.5)
I will be one of the few people in the country watching this game as the priority game. As we know 90% of the college football world will be watching Florida and LSU. So this is a must read. Both Michigan and Iowa will be drinking truth serum as we will find out how good these teams really are. Last week Michigan scored two touchdowns with four minutes left in the game to tie Michigan State before losing to the Spartans in overtime. Tate Forcier is proving himself as a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10. Forcier led Michigan to comeback wins against Notre Dame and Indiana before finally striking out to Michigan State. Iowa is undefeated with a below average offense, a defense that gives up a ton of yards (but few points) and special teams that are average.
Tate Forcier plays beyond his years, but he is still only a true freshman playing high school football last year in sunny San Diego. As impressive as he’s been, he’s good for one critical interception a game. As I mentioned Iowa gives up yards but not points. They are great at getting turnovers at the right time. This game is strength on strength. Michigan is 13th in the country in scoring offensive and 15th in the country in scoring per play. Iowa is 19th in the country in scoring defense. Unfortunately for Michigan Iowa is at home. Michigan beats the spread but losses the game in a hard fought battle. Both teams score enough to favor the over. Iowa beats Michigan 27-23.

Quick Picks: Other games to watch

Georgia Tech @ Florida State (Vegas picks Florida State by 2.5, over/under 54.5)

Christian Ponder has been getting hit often, but he is the guy that will need to change the direction of the offense. Georgia Tech has had problems defending the pass this year and Ponder is good enough to exploit this. Georgia Tech has given up ten touchdown passes in five games and rank 88th in the country in pass efficiency defense. Florida State wide-outs Bert Reed, Richard Goodman and Rod Owens are going to have to help Ponder as Florida State’s rushing offense hasn’t been very impressive this year. Florida State should have won this game last year at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech will beat the spread but Florida State wins the game, but barely. Both teams score enough to combine for the over. Florida State beats Georgia Tech 28-27.

Oregon @ UCLA (Vegas favors Oregon by 3.5, over/under 46.5)

The Oregon Ducks have not lost since the infamous punch at Boise State. Oregon’s offense looks good but their defense looks better. Oregon lost their best defensive back (Walter Thurman), but the Ducks have only given up one touchdown in the last two games. They are on a roll. Oregon’s defense leads the PAC 10 in turnovers and that has been reflected in their wins. It’s all about Oregon. UCLA beats the spread but Oregon wins the game. Both teams score barely enough to beat the spread. Oregon beats UCLA 26-23.

Stanford @ Oregon State (Vegas favors Oregon State by 0.5, over/under 51.5)

Stanford leads the PAC-10 in fewest sacks allowed. Stanford QB Andrew Luck will have all day to find open receivers. Oregon State ranks 114th in the country in pass defense and only has three sacks all year. Stanford beats Vegas and Oregon State and the scoring aggregate is over 51.5. Stanford beats Oregon State 27-25.

Georgia @ Tennessee (Vegas favors Tennessee by 1, over/under 46.5)

Georgia’s defense will provide all the big breaks Tennessee needs to get its offense in sink. Who has the bigger turnover problem this year between these two teams? Georgia. The Dawgs are 115th in the country in turnover margin and dead last in the SEC. Tennessee beats the spread and Vegas and both teams score just enough for the over. Tennessee beats Georgia 28-20. Check out the biggest Tennessee fan I know and his new blog. www.letstalksecfootball.blogspot.com Wade, good luck with those Vols this weekend.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M (Vegas favors OSU by 5.5, over/under 61.5)

Houston’s quarterback ripped Oklahoma State’s defense for 366 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Texas A&M lost last week to Arkansas, but A&M’s passing game was still effective. Oklahoma State has a mediocre pass rush and A&M QB Jarrod Johnson should have plenty of time to pick apart Oklahoma State’s defense. Don’t forget about Dez Bryant, OSU’s best receiver is suspended for the year for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State in an upset. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State 30-29 with the twelfth man on their side.

The first look at this year’s Rob Rankings:

The methodology behind the rankings is a reflection of the offensive and defensive stats that directly correlate to wins combined with strength of schedule: Here is my top 25. These rankings will obviously shift as the season continues.

Rob Rankings Top 25: Reflecting the first five weeks of the season.

1. Alabama 5.51
2. Florida 7.43
3. Nebraska 10.38
4. USC 11.29
5. Texas 15.26
6. TCU 15.76
7. Boise State 17.07
8. Oklahoma 21.88
9. Virginia Tech 22.44
10. Ohio State 23.51
11. Kansas 24.44
12. Oregon 26.67
13. Cincinnati 28.73
14. South Florida 29.76
15. Tennessee 32.48
16. Stanford 32.65
17. Arizona 36.19
18. LSU 37.60
19. UCLA 37.77
20. Pittsburgh 39.49
21. Miami (FL) 39.66
22. South Carolina 39.88
23. Georgia 40.11
24. Penn State 40.20
25. West Virginia 40.28

Enjoy the games this weekend.

A weekend for away teams.....

Week Five: College Football Picks

Greetings College Football Fans,

A top five team has tumbled every week this season. Let’s see what happens next.

Big Games:

Oklahoma @ Miami
Remember when these teams used to battle in the 80’s? If Miami had not lost to Virginia Tech last week this game would be a throwback with the same implications on the national championship spotlight that existed twenty years ago. That’s OK, because this game is still huge. You’ve got to love Miami QB Jacory Harris. Did you see the story on him during Game Day last Saturday? How can you root against him? If Miami can beat Oklahoma this Saturday, it will prove they are a contender once again. With a Miami win this weekend, they will show the character it takes to be champions (bouncing back from the VT loss). If Oklahoma can win they will get back into the national title chase. As I’m typing, ESPN just announced Sam Bradford will not play against Miami.

You were witness last week to what Virginia Tech’s defense did to Miami. I like Virginia Tech’s defense a lot, but I’d take Oklahoma’s defense anytime over VT’s. Virginia Tech’s defense held Miami’s running game to only 59 yards and brought significant on Jacory Harris all afternoon. If you think about the Miami games against Florida State and Georgia Tech, Harris had time. Against Virginia Tech, Harris was just 9-25 for only 150 yards and one pick. Oklahoma’s defense has a better pass rush than Virginia Tech’s. The Sooners have had 12 sacks in three games. They also lead the nation is tackles for a loss. Oklahoma’s defense also leads the nation in run defense only allowing 41 yards per game. Oklahoma wins on the road. Oklahoma wins 26-17.


USC @ California
We all want a college football playoff. Consider this a PAC-10 playoff game, because the loser will be out of the Rose Bowl race. California can’t seem to get out of the “we’re almost good”bucket. They were absolutely blown out against Oregon last week. Cal has a great opportunity to show the country they are better than almost good. Bottom line here, whoever loses this game can pack it up for the season.

USC’s offense hasn’t been this bad since pre Pete Carroll. Last week against Washington State USC put up big numbers. However, Cal is playing at home and their much better team than Washington State. The Golden Bears have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the country. I think Cal will pick it up and beat USC this year. Cal wins 33-27. USC is done.


LSU @ Georgia
Who is the quietest team in the country? LSU is now ranked #5 in the country (very sneaky). I’ll say they sure don’t seem like a #5 team. LSU just barely squeaked past Mississippi State last week, holding them in a goal line stand to win the game. Remember the magic #5. One top five team has lost every week this season. Georgia is also finding ways to win games. It’s been a weird year for the Dawgs. Shoot outs against Arkansas and South Carolina and a last second field goal to beat Arizona State last week. Georgia has clearly rebounded from their first game against Oklahoma State, but they are incredibly inconsistent. Georgia really needs to win this game. The Dawgs following two games are on the road and then they travel to Jacksonville for the cocktail party against Florida.

Weird games like this come down to turnovers. LSU is fifth in the country in turnover ratio and only has three total turnovers this year. Georgia is 115th in turnover margin. LSU beats Georgia between the hedges. LSU wins 39-15.

Auburn @ Tennessee
Here is a social status game. Both teams want their social status back. Auburn is actually scoring points this year. The offense and defense both look good and new coach Gene Chizik is off to a great start. Auburn is much improved when you compare them to last year’s team. For example, last year Auburn only scored 207 points the entire season (17 points per game). Auburn’s competition so far this year hasn’t been awful. They have beaten Mississippi State, West Virginia and Louisiana Tech who blew out Hawaii last night. Let’s examine Tennessee…They played a good game against Florida, holding them to 23 points in a Tennessee loss. The Vol’s beat Ohio University (not Ohio State) and Western Kentucky. Almost forgot about Tennessee’s loss to an improved UCLA in Knoxville.

I asked my good friend Wade, (a diehard Tennessee fan) what Tennessee’s biggest challenge is this year and he explicitly said “QUARTERBACK”. Looking at Jonathan Crompton’s (UT QB) passing stats, he has thrown seven touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. On the bright side Tennessee’s running game is descent. However, it is going to be tough for Tennessee against a not perfect but competitive Auburn defense. Tennessee will have to rush for over 200 yards to make up for their inefficient passing game and Auburns defense isn’t that bad. Auburn wins a close one. Auburn wins 26-24.


Texas A&M @ Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas)
Do you remember the old Southwest Conference? That old conference consisted of all the Texas schools and Arkansas. This is an old Southwest Conference game. These team are just average, but this should be an entertaining game. These two team are the types that will beat an undefeated team and ruin their season while Arkansas and Texas A&M have nothing to play for. Both teams will probably make a bowl this year, but they are average at best. So why am I writing about them and wasting our time?, pure entertainment value, offense and nostalgia. Arkansas was blasted 35-7 last week against Alabama (my #1 team in the country). Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (Michigan transfer) is 6’7” and will play in the NFL in a few years. He can put up points and Arkansas’s defense can too (team can score at will on Arkansas). Did you know Texas A&M had the #1 offense in the country averaging 575 yards per game? Their defense so far has only given up 55 points in three games.

It takes eleven players to field a defense. However, Arkansas has only been fielding seven. The Razorbacks have no secondary at all. Arkansas’s other seven players are a little better and can apply a moderate pass rush, but Texas A&M QB Jarrod Johnson is mobile and an above average passer. Georgia QB Joe Cox lit up the Arkansas defense for over 50 points and Alabama QB Greg McElroy threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M will have a field day. Texas A&M wins 24-10.


Wisconsin @ Minnesota
This game is not always on the radar, especially if you don’t live in the Midwest. IF you look at the history of this game it’s always a shootout. Not surprising since both teams are playing for the Paul Bunyan Axe every year. These two teams are tied for first in the Big Ten (along with four other teams). But they are the only teams tied for first in the Big Ten that are playing each other this week. Last week Minnesota won an impressive game against tricky Northwestern 35-24. This week’s game will be the first road game for Wisconsin this year. Wisconsin has won by vary narrow margins this year. They beat Fresno State in overtime, and beat both Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight. Wisconsin has to look forward to playing Ohio State and Iowa the following two weeks after their game against Minnesota.

Wisconsin has a very strong running game with John Clay leading the way for the Badgers. Minnesota’s run defense only looks good against average running games. Wisconsin won’t need to rely only on the run against Minnesota. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien will throw to many receivers. He doesn’t make many mistakes and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass as their defense gave up 309 and 252 yards to Northwestern and Cal respectively. Wisconsin wins the Ax. Wisconsin wins 38-27.


Michigan @ Michigan State
As a diehard Wolverine fan, this game scares me. Michigan State has its back against the wall with a 1-3 record. The Spartans are supposed to be a good balanced football team this year. Mark Dantonio was supposed to have a breakout year as Michigan State’s coach. Michigan State lost to a better Wisconsin team last week, handed a victory to Notre Dame and literally gave the game away to Central Michigan. Now it’s Michigan’s tern to be given a gift by the Spartans. Not so fast my friend. Michigan is a few players and two years away from competing for the national championship. Last year Michigan State was competing for the Big ten championship while rival Michigan was in the cellar. Things seem doom and gloom for Michigan State this year, but if they can beat rival Michigan on Saturday life seems a little sunnier for the Spartans.

Michigan State has a defense that doesn’t do anything fancy. They don’t blitz or stunt very often. They tend to stay in a base defense and play very aggressively. Notre Dame had no problem running against the Spartans and Wisconsin put up 193 yards last week. If Michigan State can’t stop the Wolverines rushing attack the Michigan backfield will have a field day (QBs included). Wolverine QB Tate Forcier is banged up so Denard Robinson will get more snaps. The first play of his career at Michigan, Robinson ran for a 40 yard touchdown. Watch out for him against the Spartans this week. Michigan beats Michigan State 38-20. The Wolverines move to 5-0.


Quick Picks

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against SEC teams this year. Vanderbilt was only able to put up 210 yards total offense against LSU and only 157 yards against Mississippi State. The Ole Miss defense will be tough against Vanderbilt rushing offense and they will put lots of pressure on Vandy’s QB Larry Smith.
Ole Miss wins 28-7.

South Florida @ Syracuse
South Florida took Florida State behind the woodshed last week. So far, South Florida’s defense has only allowed 27 points all season (in four games). Their defensive line led by George Selvie is disrupting opposing offenses before the play even gets started. South Florida wins 25-19.

Washington @ Notre Dame
USC and Stanford ran for 571 yards against Washington. I strongly assume Notre Dame’s game plan is the run the football. Notre Dame is at home and more talented than the improved Huskies. Notre Dame wins 24-14.

UCLA @ Stanford
Stanford has a great running back in Toby Gerhart. History shows that when Toby rushes for less than 100 yards Stanford loses. UCLA will shut him down. The Bruins win and stays undefeated. UCLA wins 23-21.

Oregon State @ Arizona State
Arizona State’s defense is the real deal. Last week in Athens, ASU held Georgia’s offense to just 20 points. Arizona State leads the nation in turnover margin, which helps their struggling offense. Arizona State beats Oregon State 12-3.

Enjoy all the games this week. Until next week…..

College Football: Freaky Week Four


There is something to be said about trusting your initial instincts. The games last week crushed me. I can’t tell you how I agenized over picks and changed winner to losers at the last minute. This week I’m going to trust my initial instincts. Let’s see what happens…..

Games of the Week:

Miami @ Virginia Tech
This is could be the Coastal Division championship game. Miami has looked tremendous with impressive wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. Miami has the opportunity to beat three straight ACC ranked teams if they can beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. Miami plays Oklahoma next week and if they go into that game 3-0 and beat Oklahoma, watch out!! Virginia Tech just barely beat Nebraska last week on the last play of the game escaping a 1-2 start. Last week Nebraska held Virginia Tech’s offense to almost nothing until the last drive of the game. The only team Virginia tech has look really good against is Marshall (given they have played Alabama & Nebraska).

Here goes that instinct thing (oh boy). Virginia Tech is clearly going to have to put massive pressure on Miami QB Jacory Harris. No one has been able to do this yet. (Dr. Lou is on TV right now)..
I think Jacory Harris will struggle against Virginia Tech’s defense. Virginia Tech’s secondary is allowing only 164 yards per game and has only allowed one touchdown pass all season. Virginia Tech does not lose in Lane Stadium, so my instincts are yelling Virginia Tech in the upset. Virginia Tech wins 27-19.


Texas Tech @ Houston
If you play fantasy college football you definitely have to watch this game. Houston’s offensive coordinator (Dana Holgorsen) used to work for Texas Tech’s head coach Mike Leach. This game will be nothing but offense.

Houston has no pass rush what so ever. If they can’t put pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will dissect and exploit Houston’s defense. Taylor Potts high school teammate, wide receiver Lyle Leong has replaced NFL hold out receiver Michael Crabtree as the go to receiver. Texas Tech played well against Texas and could have beaten them in Austin. I’m confident that Texas Tech can beat Houston in Houston. Texas Tech wins in a shootout 57-40.


Iowa @ Penn State
You may recall that Penn State’s only loss last year (until they played USC in the Rose Bowl) came on a last second field goal to Iowa. Iowa is not supposed to beat Penn State on a last second field goal, at least based on recruiting class rankings. However, Iowa wins its fair share of games against Penn State. Iowa seem to have their number.

Defenses have put a tremendous amount of pressure on Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi. I mean it’s been easy for other teams. Can Iowa fight off the pass rush that Penn State will put on Iowa? I don’t think this game will even be close. Penn State wins 34-15.


California @ Oregon
So far Cal is meeting the media’s expectations. The winner of this game will get a great jump on the rest of the PAC-10, especially with USC’s loss to Washington last week.

Oregon’s defense is allowing 30 points a game so far this year. Their defense has only gotten to the opposing quarterback twice all this season. Cal will clearly exploit Oregon’s defense. Cal’s QB Kevin Riley is playing better than expected this year. The Bears running game is incredible with the best (literally) running back in the country in Jahvid Best (my Heisman choice so far). Both teams will have to play with balanced offensives, however Oregon is very run heavy and not a very efficient passing team (particularly playing from behind). Even though this game is in Oregon (very loud stadium) Cal wins 41-21.


Arizona State @ Georgia
My gut is tingling……Uh Oh. Georgia’s offense hasn’t been this productive since about 2004. The Dawgs have put up a combined 93 points against Arkansas and South Carolina. However, Georgia’s defense could use some work. Georgia is an exciting team to watch as they have rebounded nicely from their season opening loss to Oklahoma State. They are slowly climbing up in the rankings. Arizona State is also playing great football. They just haven’t played anyone at all this year (Idaho State & Louisiana-Monroe).

Remember, Georgia QB Joe Cox had the flu against Oklahoma State and had to be flown in on a private jet as a game time decision. Now that he is feeling better, he’s thrown seven touchdown passes in the last two games. Georgia also features two stud receivers in AJ Green and Michael Moore. My gut isn’t tingling enough to pick an upset, but I think Arizona State will make it close. Georgia wins 26-21.


Washington State @ USC
Why did I list this game under, games of the week? If you want to see perfect offensive and defensive execution check this game out. Basically, USC’s season is over. The 16-13 loss last week to Washington ended any hopes of a national championship (lottery odds at this point). While USC was losing to Washington, Washington State was rallying from behind to beat SMU. How many times can you recall WSU celebrating while USC is sulking in the same week?

Reality will set back in for both teams soon. USC will be angry this week. I’m one to pick upsets, but there is no way Washington State beats USC this week. I mean no way. USC wins the first half 35-0. If you want to see perfect football, from USC this week tune in to this game. This game will look like the Saints offense and Steelers defense versus not the Lions, but Washington State. USC sins 51-7 taking it easy in the second half.


Other Good Games: The Quick Picks

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech at home is a great match up for the much improved but this year untested Tar Heels. Georgia Tech gets back to their winning ways. Georgia Tech wins 33-18.

South Florida @ Florida State: South Florida starts a freshman quarterback this week in Tallahassee. FSU’s strong run defense will force the young QB to throw. FSU offense looked unstoppable last week against BYU. Florida State wins 25-17.

Wake Forest @ Boston College: A week ago Boston College only threw for 25 yards on 21 attempts. Wake Forest stacks the box against BCs ground attack. Wake Forest QB Ryan Skinner looks great. Wake Forest wins on the road 21-14.

Texas Christian @ Clemson: TCU is not used to this kind of speed. Clemson should have beat Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. Clemson’s defense has some much more speed than what TCH has seen this year. Clemson running back CJ Spiller will get loose against TCU from the backfield and on special teams. Clemson squeaks past a talented but out matched TCU team 28-25.

Fresno State @ Cincinnati: Fresno State’s defense is suspect against the run. Watch Cincinnati running backs Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey. Cincinnati wins 37-12.

Missouri @ Nevada: Nevada’s defense has not created a turnover yet this year. Nevada’s offense has given up four fumbles and four interceptions (the nation’s worst turnover ratio). Missouri puts up almost 500 yards of total offense. Missouri wins 36-17.

Southern Mississippi @ Kansas: This is an interesting game. Kansas wins a close one 31-29.

Indiana @ Michigan: Michigan is 3rd in the nation in rushing, averaging 271 yards per game. Michigan should control field position with their improved defensive and special teams. However, I think this game may be closer than Vegas suggests. Michigan wins homecoming 36-24.

Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin has played in close games this season, but their run defense is excellent. Wisconsin is huge and plays a physician style of football. Wisconsin will not lose to Michigan State. Wisconsin wins 43-38.

Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State’s defense is tough. They actually played a brilliant game against USC. Ohio State shuts down the Juice. The Buckeyes win 33-14.

Purdue @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defensive backs are awful. Purdue is an effective passing team and QB Joey Elliott will go to town. Purdue wins 23-14.

Arizona @ Oregon State: Oregon State has two sacks all season. Arizona QB Nick Foles Shouldn’t be to rushed. Arizona’s defense has only given up only two touchdown passes (when the games were already over) all year. This game will resemble the old “Dessert Storm” Arizona defenses against Oregon State. Arizona wins 31-24.

Washington @ Stanford: Can you say LET DOWN? Stanford is much improved with an impressive offense. The Cardinal (not Cardinals) have a great running back in Toby Gerhart and quarterback Andrew Luck. Gerhard is averaging more than 100 yards per game and Luck is getting better every week. Stanford wins 34-18.

LSU @ Mississippi State: Mississippi State can’t score enough points to keep up with LSU. LSU’s defense isn’t as intimidating as those teams a few years ago, but they are still very good. LSU just needs to play conservative and control the ball. No problem, LSU wins 51-26.

Arkansas @ Alabama: It will be a long day for Arkansas’s defense. Alabama’s rushing offense will go to town against a weak Arkansas front seven. Alabama will put up at least 250 yards rushing. Alabama will have a big game passing too. Alabama wins big 39-3.

Florida @ Kentucky: Florida will get its passing game in line this week. Louisville lit up Kentucky on the deep ball. Florida will open things up against Kentucky in preparation for the tougher games in the SEC. Florida’s offense is ranked second in the nation in rushing averaging 289 yards per game. Florida wins easily 37-7.

If I have more time next week, I will start analyzing data and sharing some interesting statistics and their implications on the game.

Enjoy your weekend!

Notorious Week Three:

Greetings College Football Fans,


There are a ton of great college football games this weekend. Let's not waste time.
I'm typing this with my Black Berry so please pardon any typos.

Here we go….

SEC:

Tennessee @ Florida
Here is a huge challenge for a young Lane Kiffin. He has been agitating urban Meyer since the day he took the job at Tennessee. It seems like every press conference Kiffin is talking about Urban Meyer or the Gators. He accused Meyer of recruiting violations and suggested Tennessee will beat Florida at the swamp while singing “Rocky Top”. If Lane Kiffin weren’t talking trash, this is a rivalry game and Florida will be ready anyway. Florida needs to make a statement anyway since they really haven’t played anyone this season. However, Tennessee is still a good football team with enough talent to make this a game. How crazy would it be if Tennessee actually beat Florida? No one in America seems to think this could happen.

Two weeks ago Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton threw five touchdown passes and the running game racked up almost 400 yards against Western Kentucky. Tennessee looked like it was back in contention. Last week UCLA came to Knoxville and shut down all offensive production. The problem here is that Florida’s defense is so much better than UCLA’s. Also, in a rivalry game like this Florida’s defense will be fired up and emotional. Florida’s defense (entire team for that matter) is rested. They have had no competition in the first two games (spring ball was tougher). Watch out for the #1 team in the country. Florida finally has a game to play and they have been waiting for this one. I haven’t even mentioned Tim Tebow and the offense. Florida wins this game but not a compete blowout. I like that Tennessee defense. Florida 31-7.

Georgia @ Arkansas
Arkansas plans on making things hard on the Dawgs of Georgia this Saturday. This is why Bobby Petrino quit the Atlanta Falcons job. He wants to coach another high powered offense in the college football world. Arkansas started that high powered offense against Missouri State where the Razorbacks rolled up 480 passing yards and almost 600 yards total offense. However, Georgia is not Missouri State. But Georgia has struggled on defense so far this year. If Georgia’s defense plays like it did last week, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett could light up the scoreboard and show the SEC what he is capable of. For Georgia, Arizona State and LSU loom on the schedule the following two week and I’m sure Mark Richt is working hard to get the Dawgs back on track or the season could spell disaster. These two teams don’t have the history that other SEC games have, but Arkansas has not beaten Georgia since 1993.

Last week Georgia took advantage of every opportunity to beat South Carolina and still barely won. If Georgia had not returned a kickoff for a touchdown or had the long touchdown from scrimmage by Branden Smith, Georgia would have probably lost to South Carolina. Last week Georgia barely survived as the defense held for a last second defensive stand. Georgia really has not been in a high powered offensive shootout (not against Oklahoma State either). Arkansas will win if Ryan Mallette gets his rhythm. If that happens the Dawgs will be 1-2 as Arizona State and LSU come to Georgia the following two weeks. Arkansas wins 37-34.


The Big -12

Texas Tech @ Texas
This game is my personal favorite this week. We’ll call it the game of the week. Last year Texas only lost one game all season. Can you name the team? You got it…Texas Tech. The game was dramatic as Michael Crabtree caught a last second pass to beat the Longhorns. The loss crushed Texas in the BCS rankings and Oklahoma moved ahead and eventually played for the National Championship (but Texas beat Oklahoma). Texas Tech is not considered to be a major threat in the Big-12 this year. They are in a “rebuilding” year. Texas Tech, so far this year has only passed for 918 yards in two games. It’s seems like the Red Raiders are back filling for those lost upper classmen nicely. This year Oklahoma State is supposed to be the Texas Tech of last year (the sleeper). Since Oklahoma State lost to Houston last week and Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford’s shoulder injury, the Big-12 landscape has changed. With a win, Colt McCoy and the Longhorns can begin to position themselves nicely for the Heisman and BCS Championship Game respectively is they beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can go from the perception of “rebuilding” to national contender if they beat Texas.

Can Texas generate the pass rush to disrupt Texas Tech’s passing game? This year Texas has good defensive backs, but not great ones like they have had in the past. If Texas can’t get any pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will pick apart the Longhorns defense all night. Texas Tech winning at Texas is a tall order, but it could happen. Let’s just see if Texas Tech is “rebuilding” this year. Texas Tech wins 39-36.

The WAC

Boise State @ Fresno State
Don’t sleep on this game. This is my second favorite game of the week. Fresno State will play anyone anywhere and play well. Fresno State can match the athletes of Boise State and if they play well at home this could be an upset. Boise State is arguably the best coached football team in the country. They have a very efficient offense, a defense that doesn’t make mistakes and special teams that make big plays. Fresno State had Wisconsin on the ropes in Madison in a double overtime loss to the Badgers. Again, don’t sleep on this game. These are the best two teams in the WAC by far. And they can beat any team in the country.

The bottom line in this game is that Fresno State makes mistakes and Boise State does not. Fresno State QB Ryan Colburn has thrown four interceptions in his first two games. If he throws one pick against Boise State that will be the difference in winning or losing. Boise State has a better secondary than Wisconsin and they will lock down the Fresno State receivers. Boise State will also be able to put enough pressure on Colburn to force him out of his game. Boise State wins 34-16.


Cross Conference Games

Florida State @ BYU
Here is another high profile game for BYU. If they can pull it off, the entire country will be believers and it will be more than just Sam Bradford getting hurt in the Oklahoma game. Last week BYU traveled to New Orleans and beat Tulane 54-3 and clearly avoided an Oklahoma emotional letdown. Florida State on the other hand, just barely beat Jacksonville State last week and lost an instant classic to Miami the week before (in five days). Yes, I did say Jacksonville State earlier in the last sentence. Maybe Florida State needs a vacation or a change of scenery. How about a road trip to Utah?

Florida State seems like an emotionally wounded program. They could have lost to Jacksonville State and be 0-2. Florida State is used to playing at sea level. BYU is in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains (the air is thin up there). BYU is just starting to get in a rhythm and will use a hurry-up offense to tire out the Noles as they attempt to catch their breath and stay focused. We all know BYU likes to pass the football and we also know what Miami did to Florida State, Miami QB Jacory Harris threw for 386 yards.
This will be a tough game for Florida State. BYU wins 48-24.

Nebraska @ Virginia Tech
Last year Virginia Tech and QB Tyrod Taylor rolled into Lincoln and thrashed the Cornhuskers 35-20. Nebraska and their new head coach were still getting to know each other. Nebraska is clearly playing with more confidence this year. Nebraska is more focused than they have been in the past. The Cornhuskers will be ready for the Big-12 this year. But first….Virginia Tech. The ACC and Virginia Tech need a big non-conference win. It would help Virginia Tech regain the perception of national strength after losing to Alabama in the first game. Virginia tech has a shot at a BSC bowl if they win the ACC or not lose any more games.

Nebraska is a tough team to play in a non-conference game. I take my hat off to Virginia Tech for scheduling Alabama and Nebraska in the same season. Nebraska still sports those ridiculously big offensive and defensive linemen. The Cornhuskers are better than they were last year and still just as physical as they have been in their heyday. Check out Nebraska’s big nose tackle Ndamukong Suh. He anchors Nebraska’s tough defensive line and will help shut down Virginia Tech’s running game. Nebraska’s secondary is fast and make good open field tackles. Virginia Tech’s offensive line has allowed eight sacks this year and they will be forced to pass because of Nebraska’s tough run defense. Nebraska wins in a tough battle 24-22.

West Virginia @ Auburn
West Virginia is averaging double digit victories so far this season. So has Auburn…Will the real team please stand up? This game will provide clarity regarding the quality of both teams. How tough is the Big East this year? West Virginia will travel for the first time this year. The winner of this game will be ranked in the top 25.

West Virginia senior QB Jarrett Brown is a big strong guy that can run through tackles and effectively pass the ball. He is about the same size as Tim Tebow. Last week against a respectable East Carolina Brown ran for 73 yards and threw for four touchdowns. West Virginia wins a challenging road game 34-24.

Michigan State @ Notre Dame
This is almost the matchup of the week. If both Notre Dame and Michigan State hadn’t lost last second games last week they would both be undefeated. Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week by allowing them to recover an onside kick. Michigan State also gave Central Michigan a second shot at a game winning field goal do to a penalty. The odds of Michigan State losing that game the way they did were like Central Michigan winning the lottery. Whoever loses this game will be scrambling for the remainder of the season. Both of these teams were ranked at the start of the season. One team will go disappointingly in the wrong direction after this weekend’s game. Michigan State can at least still have BSC aspirations as they can start their season over when they hit the Big-10 schedule. Any respectable team Notre Dame plays is a conference game since they are independent. Notre Dame is a lot better than they have been in the last few years, but Michigan State has won three out of four in the Charlie Weis era. All the sports writers think Notre Dame is a BCS Bowl team. This will be their chance to prove it. With an easier schedule than ND has had in the past, they are running out of teams to prove it against.

Notre Dame has a balanced offense. If Michigan State puts pressure on Clausen, Notre Dame can run the football with Armando Allen who rushed for 139 yards last week against Michigan. Notre Dame wins big 38-10.

Other Interesting Games: The Quick Picks

USC @ Washington: Washington is getting better but USC is just too good. USC wins 38-6.

California @ Minnesota: Upset alert. Cal has a long trip to Minnesota. Both teams are undefeated. Minnesota shocks Cal 19-16.

Tulsa @ Oklahoma: The Sooners are hobbled without their Heisman Trophy winner. Tulsa is an explosive football team. Oklahoma wins 34-21.

Ohio State @ Toledo: I can’t believe Ohio State is playing at Toledo. At Toledo? Toledo beat Colorado at Toledo. Ohio State is not Colorado, but it’s still a competitive game. Ohio State wins 33-27.

Utah @ Oregon: Oregon lost their best running back with the infamous punch. They also have a new coach. Utah wins 26-10.

Cincinnati @ Oregon State: Cincinnati is very good. Oregon State beat the USC Trojans last year. Oregon State makes a statement 35-6.

Connecticut @ Baylor: UConn travels to Baylor. Quietly, Baylor has one of the best QBs in the country and the team is much better. Baylor wins 24-10.

Arizona @ Iowa: Two undefeated teams. Iowa wins big at home 30-0.

Eastern Michigan @ Michigan: Can Michigan’s former defensive coordinator Ron English beat the Wolverines? Anything can happen. However, Tate Forcier and company are getting better every week.
Michigan wins 45-21.

Enjoy the college football weekend.

Wild Week Two

Wild Week Two:

Greetings College Football Fans,

How about that first week of college football? Lets dive right into what we think will happen this week.

This week’s BIG games:

USC @ Ohio State

Ohio State has finally has a chance to get the non-conference ranked opponent monkey off its back. However, USC owns the Big 10, and everyone outside the PAC-10. USC has only lost one game outside of PAC-10 play since 2002 (Loss to Kansas State). That was the National Championship game when USC lost to Texas in 2006. Auburn fans remember back in 2003 when USC came to town and beat the Tigers 23-0. Arkansas fans remember when USC rolled into Fayetteville and dominated the Razorbacks 50-14. That same year Arkansas (2006) made it to the SEC Championship game. In 2007 USC traveled to Nebraska to play the Cornhuskers and the Trojans handled the home team 49-31. Just last year USC beat Virginia 52-7 in Charlottesville. The question is can Ohio State get the ranked non-conference opponent off their back this weekend? Will Ohio State go down as a team that plays good football in a mediocre Big 10? Without a win against USC this weekend, that perception will continue to be firmly imprinted in the minds of college football fans. Particularly, after the blowout loss to USC last year and the two National Championship games the two years before.

Believe it or not but the weakest link of the Ohio State defense last five years have been the defensive line (statistically great run defenses because of the great OSU linebackers). USC has arguably the best offensive line in the country this year. If Ohio State doesn’t get creative with stunts and blitz packages, the USC offensive line will control the line of scrimmage early and often. USC ran for over 340 yards against San Jose State last week and we know the trouble Ohio State had with Navy. I think USC wins this game fairly close. USC wins 35-21.


Notre Dame @ Michigan

Notre Dame and Michigan easily beat two respectable opponents last week, which changed the national level of interest of this game dramatically. These are the two best college football programs in the history of college football. Michigan has more total wins than any team and the highest winning percentage in football history (Notre Dame is now third in wins after Texas past them last year). No one would know this about these teams if you were introduced to college football a few years ago. Notre Dame and Michigan made big statements with their wins last week. These two historic football programs are both tired of getting their behinds kicked and are set to prove it this year. Unfortunately, one of these teams will lose tomorrow. Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis have taken their respected teams from scratch and totally rebuilt them (Weis has had more time to do this) to fit each coaches system. Jimmy Clausen is has a war torn veteran and the hard knocks Notre Dame has taken the last few years are starting to pay off. Michigan’s schedule is favorable the next few games as they face off against Eastern Michigan and Indiana in the Big House. So, if Rich Rod and crew can beat Notre Dame, Michigan will probably be 4-0 going into the tougher part of their schedule.

Notre Dame will play a very aggressive scheme against Michigan. Notre Dame had two sacks and four tackles for losses against Nevada (resulting in a 35-0 victory). Notre Dame defensive coordinator John Tenuta will blitz and try to stop Michigan’s offense before it has a chance to get any momentum. Nevada returned its offensive backfield from last year which averaged 278 yards per game running the football (third in the nation last year). Nevada and Michigan run similar spread offensives (Nevada out of the Pistol formation versus shotgun) and Notre Dame was able to shut down the veteran Nevada spread attack. As much as this hurts to predict this outcome, I think Notre Dame will wear out a very young Michigan team in the second half. Notre Dame wins 27-17.


Quick Picks:

East Carolina @ West Virginia

This will be a close battle with two evenly matched teams. West Virginia’s defense should hold off East Carolina long enough for Noel Devin to do his thing. West Virginia wins 24-17

South Carolina @ Georgia

This game clearly won’t be a barn burner. Georgia will get on track after a tough game last week against Oklahoma State. Georgia should be able to control the trenches and squeak out a low scoring hard hitting battle. Georgia wins 21-17

Houston @ Oklahoma State

Last year these two teams played in a slug fest high scoring match up. Houston will have a tough time stopping Oklahoma State’s offense. Eventually, Houston wears down and Oklahoma State pulls ahead in the fourth quarter. Lots of offense in this game. Oklahoma State wins 41-38

UCLA @ Tennessee

Tennessee’s defense will control the Bruins. Don’t expect Tennessee to explode on offense like they did against Western Kentucky, but it won’t be that far off. Check out running back Bryce Brown for Tennessee. He was rated the number one running back in high school last year. Tennessee rolls 41-17.

Enjoy the weekend. Talk with you next week.

Wonderful Week One

The 2009 College Football season is finally here!

Greetings college football fans,

I am back this year to share my college football thoughts with you. This year I’ve decided to upgrade to a blog instead of the antiquated word document. I suppose Blogs are antiquated with the popularity Twitter. I won’t be Tweeting anytime soon.

So where do we start? How about the most intriguing games of this first week.


Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
This game reminds me of last year’s opening game featuring Alabama versus Clemson. This time last year Clemson was projected to win the ACC and Alabama was predicted to be competitive in the SEC. The game ended with Alabama beating Clemson 34-10. This year’s SEC vs. ACC kickoff game is a splitting image of last year’s game. This time Virginia Tech is predicted to win the ACC and Alabama is predicted to be competitive in the SEC. If Alabama win this game, they will have a fairly smooth ride before they get to Oxford, MS. If Virginia Tech wins this game, it will literally be one of the biggest wins in school history. Think about that for a minute! A Virginia Tech win will take them out of the ACC cage of mediocrity and escalate them into a national power.

Unfortunately, Virginia Tech is not known for it’s passing game. As you know VT’s top back Darren Evans is out for the season. Virginia Tech typically reloads at the running back position, but not at the last minute against one of the best defenses in the country. Virginia Tech finished ranked 111 in the country last year in passing yards. This clearly won’t be a high scoring game with these two great defenses, but Alabama will score more points than Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech will probably open up the playbook for this game, but they don’t have a playbook that's deep enough for Bama. Alabama wins 26-7


Miami @ Florida State
I love this rivalry. I remember when these two teams would play each other both ranked in the top five in the country. The energy in this game is always intense like an NFL playoff game. This year the winner of this game will be in a decent position to elevate their ranking to that of the good old days. Miami almost played their entire #7 recruiting class a year ago. This year the youngsters will be better and more experienced. Florida State was able to get some momentum last year with their nine win season and clearly hope to build on their relative success.

Florida State relied on Antone Smith to run the football last year, but he gone. However, FSU’s offensive line is one of the best in the country (Phil Steel ranks the OL #7). Christian Ponder is a great athlete at quarterback. He has the ability to run effectively when he gets in trouble. Running backs Jermaine Thomas and Tavares Pressley will more than make up for Antone Smith’s departure. If Florida State can pick up from last year’s running game, Miami will be challenged, also having to defend an improved passing game. These two teams are evenly matched from a talent perspective. Where they differ is at quarterback. I like Miami’s young QB and he will continue to improve (Jacory Harris), but Christian Ponder has just enough big game experience to make the difference in an evenly matched rivalry game. I think Florida State continues the momentum they generated last year. Florida State wins 31-21


Georgia @ Oklahoma State
I think this is the best match up of the weekend. This game not only features two great teams, but also the two best conferences with major national championship implications riding on this game. A few years ago, Georgia pummeled Oklahoma State in Athens. If Oklahoma State can win, they will be elevated to the next level with Texas and Oklahoma and position themselves nicely in the hunt for the Big 12. Actually, this is a huge game for the Big 12, as they were man handled by the SEC last year (Texas Tech losing to Ole Miss & Oklahoma losing to Florida). Oklahoma State can start a new argument for the best conference in the land if they beat Georgia. What’s interesting for Georgia is that Oklahoma State is just another tough game. After the Oklahoma State game, Georgia has the luxury of playing South Carolina, Arkansas, Arizona State LSU and Tennessee consecutively (WOW). We haven’t even mentioned Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State is just another game for Georgia and they play good football on the road.

Georgia will run the football against Oklahoma State. Good old smash mouth football. Caleb King is hurt, but somewhere on the bench is another Knowshon Moreno. Oregon and Oklahoma ran the football all over Oklahoma State last year. It’s reasonable to assume Georgia can do the same. Georgia has the O-Line and depth at running back to rush for 200 plus yards. If they achieve that they will win. This will be a knockdown, drag out, high scoring game with both teams scoring a lot of points. This one should keep you at the edge of your seat. It would notbe a surprise if this game went into overtime. The edge goes to Georgia’s defense. Georgia wins 41-34.


Missouri vs. Illinois
Here is another high scoring game. This will be another 1,000 yard combined offensive effort. No one is talking about either of these teams. One of these teams could be a sleeper. Did you know Juice Williams let the Big 10 in passing last year throwing for over 3,000 yards? Chase Daniel is gone for Missouri, but Blaine Gabbert was ranked much higher than Daniel coming out of high school.

I think this game will come down to the last team with the ball wins in a track meet. Illinois seems to never win this game. I don’t see that changing this year. Missouri wins 42-35.

BYU vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is ranked on everyone’s top three teams in the country. Oklahoma lost a few good receivers from last year’s team. Their offensive line is also rebuilding. But the guys that accounted for about 70% of their touchdowns are back and the defensive will be better than last year. With all that said, this could be an upset alert for Oklahoma. Remember three years ago when Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl? If Oklahoma isn’t ready BYU could serve them. However, if Oklahoma is ready BYU doesn’t have a chance.

With Oklahoma’s o-line rebuilding, they won’t be completely functioning at full capacity until the Big 12 schedule starts. This could be the sweet spot for the upset if BYU’s defense can get enough pressure on Sam Bradford . For some reason I have a strange feeling about this game (which means nothing). Since we are not putting money on this game, BYU pulls of the stunning upset. BYU wins 38-35 on a last second field goal.


Cincinnati @ Rutgers
Nothing like starting your season with a key conference game. The team that wins this game will be in first place in the Big East and the team that loses will be in last, at least for the first three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense was decimated by graduation. Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country. He does more with less better than any coach in college football. If there is a coach that can still win with what Cincinnati has lost, its Kelly. Could this be the year that Rutgers gets a BCS birth? They have developed a winning mentality and expect to win every week.

The quarterback is arguably the most important position on the field and Rutgers is rebuilding here. Cincinnati has their starter back from last year (Tony Pike), who let Cincinnati to a BCS bowl. Cincinnati’s defense will have to develop as a unit, but Cincinnati’s offense has the ability to carry the defense until that happens. Wide receiver, Marty Gillard is the best of an impressive receiving core for Cincinnati. Rutgers defense may be a little light in the secondary and may be susceptible to the run. Rutgers got off to a slow start last year. If they start the season the same way this year they will lose. This game will be a battle in New Jersey. Cincinnati pulls out an exciting one. Cincinnati wins 37-25. Sorry New Jersey friends.

Western Michigan @ Michigan
We are talking about my Wolverines here. I will try to be unbiased. Once things for sure, I miss being a football super power. All Rich Rodriguez has to do is win, and the controversy will be forgotten. Michigan fans will have a short memory if the Wolverines can win at least seven games (looking good doing it). If Michigan loses this year, than Rich Rodriguez will look worse than Bob Davie when he took over Notre Dame after Low Holtz. Two years ago Western Michigan rolled into Iowa City and beat good Iowa football team. Last year Illinois lost to Western Michigan 23-17. If Michigan loses to Western Michigan all hell will break loose (in terms of the fan patients). Michigan faces Notre Dame the following week. If Michigan can beat Western Michigan and Notre Dame they will probably be 4-0 before their schedule gets tough (more wins than last year total of three).

Western Michigan has no defense (theoretically) to compete with Michigan’s athletes. Michigan has two true freshman quarterbacks . Tate Forcier has been compared to a young Colt McCoy and Denard Robinson has been compared to Pat White (Robinson ran a 4.32 40 in camp),but they’re both true freshman. Michigan also has Nick Sheridan back from last year. Rodriguez said he will play all three QBs to help create separation on the depth chart. The race will come down to Forcier and Robinson. Michigan will win a tough first game. Michigan wins 35-24.

Next week I will share the first installment of the Rob Rankings.

Have a great weekend college football fans and I’ll catch up with you next week.