College Football Week 9: Big Pack-10 Showdown
Greetings College Football Fans,
Pardon my absence last week but I had to take a bye week. Work load and travel got the best of me.
Great to be back this week! Let’s dive into the big games.
Big Games
SEC
Mississippi @ Auburn
Ole Miss has seemed too fallen of the hype wagon. They are dealing with two losses this season, one to South Carolina and the other against Alabama. Not bad company, particularly Alabama. Ole Miss was in both of these games and made a strong effort to come back in both losses. Ole Miss could possibly be the third best team in the SEC by the time we reach bowl season. Ole Miss could still actually play in a New Year’s Day bowl. Surprisingly, Ole Miss hammered new and improved Arkansas last week and it seems things are looking up for the Rebels. We know Auburn likes to pass the football and Ole Miss is 3rd in the nation is pass efficiency defense.
Auburn also likes to run the football with Senior RB Ben Tate. He was on a roll in the first five games rushing for 100 plus yards until Auburn faced Arkansas. Against the Razorbacks Tate only rushed for 67 yards. Auburn’s passing game has slowed down significantly as well during their loss of momentum. It will be imperative to get Ben Tate back on track with an efficient passing game. We all know offensive football is about creating space and to beat Ole Miss and they will have to get Ben Tate in space. Ole Miss finally generated strong production from their multipurpose back Dexter McCluster against Arkansas. My hunch is that the Ole Miss defensive front will dominate Auburn’s o-line from the start. Auburns offense will continue to struggle. I like Ole Miss winning 17-16 in a close game on the road.
Georgia vs. Florida in Jacksonville
A bit of a downer this year at “The Cocktail Party” with Georgia falling below their teams typical expectations. If Florida beats Georgia this weekend, they will be positioned nicely to win the SEC East, particularly if Tennessee beats South Carolina. As the Florida fans yawn at that last sentence, their expectations of course are winning another national championship and going down as maybe the best college football team of all time. This game could a dangerous one for the Gators. They haven’t been their sharp explosive selves lately.
Florida has been struggling to close the deal against teams they would have beaten by forty points last year. The Gators passing game is unproductive with Tim Tebow seemingly still not at full speed from the concussion. Their receivers haven’t been effective either particularly when you compare this group to the receiving corps of the recent past. Their expectations and everyone else’s are so high that regardless of the Gators output their performance just seems average. We must not forget this football team is still pretty good with enough team speed to compete with the NFL in a track meet. Florida’s defense has been banged up, but they are getting healthier and the timing couldn’t be better. Georgia will need to be inventive this weekend, because any traditional play calling will doom any hopes of the Dawgs moving the football against this Florida defense.
The Heisman race seems to now be favoring Ingram (Alabama Running Back), so it Tim Tebow wants to win it again “The Cocktail Party” is the stage to make up for lost momentum. It appears that he is trying to do too much, but I suppose that’s how he plays football. These two teams clearly don’t like each other. If there were a week for Florida to make a statement it would be in this love fest against Georgia. Georgia has had two weeks to rest for this game. Maybe we will see some new looks from the Dawgs, but it won’t matter. Florida star linebacker Brandon Spikes is back this week and Florida’s offense will just do what it needs to do to beat Georgia. Have a martini for me Gators; you continue to roll against the Dawgs to the tune of 32-10.
Big-12
Texas @ Oklahoma State
What the chances of Texas rolling through the rest of their schedule without contention? Great odds! The Big-12 is very average this year and the Longhorns are in a class by themselves in this conference. What about Oklahoma State? It’s interesting to consider that they are doing as well as they are with the loss of All American wide receiver Dez Bryant (Who lied to the NCAA for something that wasn’t illegal, only to be suspended for lie) and All Big-12 running back Kendal Hunter to a knee injury. Without these two the Cowboys are starting to resemble the Oklahoma State that everyone expected at the beginning of the year. The Cowboys are currently ranked 14th in the nation with only one loss. The national championship is not out of reach for this team yet. It they can beat Texas and win the remainder of their games anything’s possible for this team. Sound crazy? Let’s pretend for a moment that the Cowboys win the rest of their games. They would have beaten Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Missouri and Oklahoma at home. Not bad!! If this happens, the loss to Houston will be almost be expunged. I’d rather lose to Houston than Washington (as USC did). Back to reality…Oklahoma State needs to beat Texas first. Get this statistic; Oklahoma State has only beaten Texas twice since 1944! Texas currently holds an 11 game winning streak against the Cowboys. Texas’s last two wins over Oklahoma State have only been for a combined seven points and this game should be no different.
It’s tough to respect a five game winning streak when three of those win were against Baylor, Grambling and Rice. This is who Oklahoma State has battled against three of the last five weeks of the season. The other two games where against Texas A&M and Missouri. Oh well. The Cowboys defense has never been stellar, with a below average pass rush and a secondary that allows points. Oklahoma State will have a very hard time running against that great Texas defense. Only one team has rushed for more than 100 yards and only one team has scored a rushing touchdown against the Longhorns. This happens to be the same team, any guesses? Louisiana-Monroe! But it was the first game of the season and no one has come close since.
You may recall that Colt McCoy has been starting since his freshman year. Early on he used to run with the football instead of stay in the pocket (as many young QBs do). Defenses forced McCoy in the pocket the following year and he developed into a great passer. Now he can effectively run and throw and is a significant threat. McCoy let Texas in rushing and passing last year. This year McCoy’s numbers have been a little down, but that’s okay, because all he has to do is control the game, protect the ball and make good decisions. Oklahoma State will be fired up for this game. The first half will be close 17-14ish with Oklahoma State winning at half time. QB Zac Robinson will do his best, but it won’t be good enough against the Longhorns. Look for the second half to resemble a scrimmage as Texas pulls away with a crushing victory. Texas wins 35-17.
PAC-10
USC @ Oregon: The Game of the Week!!
Here is a good old heavy weight match up. The stakes can’t get any higher in the PAC-10. The winner of this game is almost destined to play in the Rose Bowl. Arizona is statistically in the mix as well, but I can’t see Arizona going to Pasadena before USC or Oregon. USC has won the PAC-10 seven years in a row. It appears that Pete Carroll has the best job in the country. However, Oregon , looking like they will be a big disappointment with their opening loss to Boise State (and the punch) has been rolling over opponents ever since. The Ducks have won six games in a row while battling injuries along the way. The BSC collateral damage will be extensive in the college football world with the outcome of this game. Both teams are ranked in the BCS top 10.
USC fans don’t sleep on this Oregon team. Last week against Oregon State, USC gave up 482 yards total offense. The week before against Notre Dame, The Irish passed for 285 yards against the Trojans. What’s up with that mighty USC defense? The Oregon Ducks run the football almost better than anyone in the country averaging over 193 yards per game in their last six games. Oregon running back LaMichael James has gone over 150 yards in thereof his last five games. The Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli seems to be back in full strength after his knee injury. The big question for Oregon will be, can they beat USC with a one dimensional offense? The answer is other teams have. Case in point, Oregon State last year, shocking the Trojans defense by running the football down their throat. The Oregon Ducks have a better passing game than their cross state rival. I like Oregon’s chances at home. Oregon wins a tight one over the Trojans 20-14.
Quick Picks for the other games of interest:
SEC
Mississippi State @ Kentucky
35 27
South Carolina @ Tennessee
28 33
Big-12
Nebraska @ Baylor
29 12
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
7 36
Iowa State @ Texas A&M
19 16
Kansas @ Texas Tech
28 35
Mountain West
UNLV @ TCU
6 50
Wyoming @ Utah
23 41
Big-10
Michigan @ Illinois
32 20
Indiana @ Iowa
7 32
Michigan State @ Minnesota
17 14
Penn State @ Northwestern
20 0
Purdue @ Wisconsin
23 30
WAC
San Jose State @ Boise State
9 51
PAC-10
California @ Arizona State
33 18
UCLA @ Oregon State
29 39
Big East
Rutgers @ Connecticut
16 18
Cincinnati @ Syracuse
27 9
ACC
Central Michigan @ Boston College
31 35
Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt
31 3
Miami @ Wake Forest
20 7
Conference USA
Southern Miss @ Houston
35 45
Independents
Temple @ Navy
9 20
Enjoy the games this weekend!!
Friday, October 30, 2009
Friday, October 16, 2009
Why Cougars Rule!! Week Seven
Why Cougars Rule!! : Week Seven
Greetings College Football Fans,
I’m sure like for most of you it was a crazy work week. It clearly was for me, but a good one.
With that said, I’m just getting around to the college football update this week. It’s Friday night and I’m watching Pitt vs. Rutgers. It’s cold outside here in Atlanta.
This week we will just go down the Top 25 and review the games. Here we go:
It’s a beautiful thing that Florida and Alabama don’t play each other this year during the regular season. These two teams are on a catastrophic collision course for what could be the best SEC Championship Game in history. If both teams maintain their consistent play we will see one versus two in this game. I love it. How about the Red River Shootout this weekend. It will be the first game between Texas and Oklahoma in the Dallas Cowboy’s new stadium. Texas continues to struggle in the first half against opponents. Last week against Colorado, Texas made the Buffalo’s look like a ranked team, and then the Longhorns pummeled them in the second half. Texas can’t afford to have a slow first half this week against the Sooners.
1. Florida Gators (5-0): Tim Tebow played as expected and the Gators came away with a huge win in Baton Rouge. The Gators are at home this weekend against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas looked great in their win against Auburn last week. Florida is favored by 25.5 this week against Arkansas. If you’re in Vegas take that bet. The Gators win big in Gainesville against the Razorbacks. Florida 47, Arkansas 18.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0): The hype is over…Not the Crimson Tide hype, the Ole Miss hype. Alabama took them from Ole Miss, to OLD Miss. The Rebels BSC hopes are over. Last week I suggested Miss QB Snead needs a big week against Alabama and the Tide shut him down. This week the Alabama faces Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Game Cocks in Tuscaloosa. South Carolina may be able to pull off the upset!! Not so fast my friend. Alabama wins a close defensive battle. Alabama 17, South Carolina 7.
3. Texas Longhorns (6-0): Last week Texas played a bad Colorado team in Austin. Texas beat the Buffalos 38-14. I can’t get over the consistent slow starts Texas gets against the weak opponents they’ve faced this year. The Longhorns strength of schedule so far this year is 101 out of 120. This week all that will change on a neutral site against the Oklahoma Sooners. Do you remember last year’s game? Will the Sooners stampede the Longhorns? Texas wins again. Texas 43, Oklahoma 39.
4. USC Trojans (4-1): Last week the USC Trojans had a bye week. Bye weeks are huge in college football, particularly when the team with the week off has such a good coach. I was listening to “The Hurd” on ESPN radio this morning and former Notre Dame great Tim Brown was a guest. He said that Notre Dame Fans expect to beat USC this weekend. I guess Notre Dame has a lot of confidence. USC does have to travel to cold South Bend. USC plays out of conference teams on the road better than any team in the country. It will be closer than usual. USC 23, Notre Dame 17.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1): Boston College is a pretty good football team. Virginia Tech beat Boston College 48-14 last week. This week Virginia Tech has to travel back to Atlanta. I say travel back, because the first week of the season Virginia Tech played Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Bama gave the Hokies a beat-down. This week Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech. This visit to Georgia will make Tech happy. Which Tech? Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 12.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1): Last week Ohio State handled Wisconsin fairly easily. It was tough for the Buckeyes in the first half, and then Ohio State pulled away. This week the Buckeyes travel to Purdue. I have a feeling it will be a tough game, but only in the first half. Ohio State 28, Purdue 7.
7. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0): Last night (Thursday) Cincinnati played South Florida. Remember what I said about having a bye week in college football, particularly when the bye team has a good coach. In this case it was Cincinnati and their coach is one of the best coaches in the country. South Florida gave Cincinnati a tough game but Cincinnati pull it out 34-17, in a game that was closer than the score suggests.
8. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (5-0): TCU played a tough Air Force Academy team last week. Air Force played a great game on their home field in a loss to TCU (24-17). This week Colorado State travels to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs. TCU stays undefeated. TCU 32, Colorado State 19.
9. Miami Hurricanes (4-1): It’s about time the Canes played a team that wasn’t ranked. Miami had their way with Florida A&M last week 48-16, in a well deserved break from the action. This week it gets a little tougher for Miami as they play Central Florida. Miami cruises to a victory. Miami 28, Central Florida 12.
10. Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) : Clearly the best two loss team in the country. The Sooners played an improved Baylor as a warm up game for Sam Bradford in his first game back in action. I think Oklahoma and Texas are evenly matched. As I suggested earlier, the Sooners will soon be the best three loss team in the country. Texas beats Oklahoma 43-39.
11. LSU Tigers (4-1): A well needed bye week for the LSU Tigers. Last week their defense looked impressive against Florida, holding them to only 13 points. If LSU can get their offense together this year perhaps they can be ready for Bama later this year. First LSU has to deal with Auburn next weekend. That should game be interesting.
12. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0): Iowa just keeps winning ugly. Last week it was against my beloved Wolverines in prime time. The importance of home games. The game against Michigan could have gone either way. Michigan QB Tate Forcier was hurt and didn’t play the last two series of the game. Iowa stepped up big in a 30-28 win. This week will be another grinder for Iowa as they travel to Wisconsin. Look for Iowa to get its first loss of the year in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beats Iowa 28-20.
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-1): Georgia Tech made history last week in Tallahassee. They beat Florida State at home for the first time in school history. “Da Gummit” (spelling?), is what Bobby Bowden said after the historic loss to the Yellow Jackets in a high scoring weather delayed shootout (49-44). This week in the battle of the Tech schools the Yellow Jackets lose to a very good Virginia tech team. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 12.
14. Boise State Broncos (6-0): Those bye weeks again. Boise State had the week of before traveling to Tulsa in a game that was up for grabs until the final minute. Tulsa wide out Slick Shelly was wide open on a fourth down play when QB G.J. Kinney couldn’t connect. Boise State lucked out in this game. The Broncos barely won 28-21, and as you can tell from the score it wasn’t a convincing win for Boise State.
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1): “Yawn” , Penn State plays another weak non-conference opponent as they crushed Eastern Illinois 52-3 in a challenging (to stay awake) contest. Don’t look for any blowouts in Happy Valley this week. The Minnesota Golden Gophers come to town. It depends on how you define blowouts. Penn State beats Minnesota firmly 37-7.
16. BYU Cougars (5-1): Last week UNLV hosted BYU and was dominated 59-21 by the Cougars. It would be tough to be a college football player that has to travel to Vegas to play a game. But I guess it’s worse if you’re a college football player and you live in Vegas. Another distracting place to travel to play a game is San Diego. That’s where BYU travels this week to play San Diego State. BYU stays focused and smashes San Diego State 48-19.
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1): I’m still getting over Oklahoma State wide out Dez Bryant getting suspended for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. His suspension kept fans in suspense as Oklahoma State barely beat Texas A&M last week. This week the Cowboys face the Missouri Tigers. The suspense continues and Oklahoma State keeps winning. Oklahoma State 27, Missouri 20.
18. Oregon Ducks (5-1): UCLA looked awful on offense last week against Oregon. The Ducks beat the Bruins 24-10 in Pasadena. Oregon’s next road trip is to Washington after a bye week this week.
19. Kansas Jayhawks (5-0): Kansas barely beat Iowa State last week in a 41-36 defensiveness Big-12 classic. Kansas puts their undefeated record on the line this week against Colorado in beautiful Boulder. Kansas KO’s Colorado 32-18.
20. Wisconsin Badgers (5-1): Wisconsin had a chance to make a statement in Columbus last week but fell way short losing 31-13. Too many mistakes against Ohio State proved to be the difference. Wisconsin returns to Madison to host the Iowa Hawkeyes who are either lucky or good. Iowa’s luck runs out this weekend. Wisconsin 28, Iowa 20.
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1): Back to the Bye week again. This advantage only applies when the opposing team doesn’t also have a bye week and/or the coach is average. Notre Dame had a bye week to prepare for USC, but USC also had a bye week to prepare for Notre Dame. I’ll take Pete or Charlie any day. USC 23, Notre Dame 15.
22. South Florida Bulls (5-1): The Bulls hosted a brilliant Cincinnati team last night (Thursday) on ESPN. Cincinnati does it again beating South Florida 34-17.
23. Houston Cougars (4-1) : Cougars seem to be popular these days, at least in the college football rankings (see BYU). Houston makes it back into the top 25 with a win against SEC Mississippi State. Houston heads to the Big Easy to take on Tulane. Let’s see if the Houston Cougars can beat Tulane the same way the BYU Cougars beat them. Cougars rule!! Houston 41, Tulane 14.
24. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1): Nebraska looked great beating a good Missouri team 27-12. If my memory recalls, Nebraska score all their points in the second half. Will Nebraska get back into the Big-12 limelight this year? The Cornhuskers will have another solid test against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. It will be a fun game to watch as Nebraska gets back to elite form. Nebraska 43, Texas Tech 39.
25. Utah Utes (4-1): Teams that battle from behind and win games on the road are teams to watch and respect. Last week Utah pulled out a close win against Colorado State in Ft. Collins, CO 24-17. UNLV travels to Utah (what a contrast in geographies, again see BYU) this week. Utah makes it look easy. Utah 54, UNLV 27.
Enjoy the weekend college football fans. I look forward to catching up to you next week from Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Michigan vs. Penn State)
Greetings College Football Fans,
I’m sure like for most of you it was a crazy work week. It clearly was for me, but a good one.
With that said, I’m just getting around to the college football update this week. It’s Friday night and I’m watching Pitt vs. Rutgers. It’s cold outside here in Atlanta.
This week we will just go down the Top 25 and review the games. Here we go:
It’s a beautiful thing that Florida and Alabama don’t play each other this year during the regular season. These two teams are on a catastrophic collision course for what could be the best SEC Championship Game in history. If both teams maintain their consistent play we will see one versus two in this game. I love it. How about the Red River Shootout this weekend. It will be the first game between Texas and Oklahoma in the Dallas Cowboy’s new stadium. Texas continues to struggle in the first half against opponents. Last week against Colorado, Texas made the Buffalo’s look like a ranked team, and then the Longhorns pummeled them in the second half. Texas can’t afford to have a slow first half this week against the Sooners.
1. Florida Gators (5-0): Tim Tebow played as expected and the Gators came away with a huge win in Baton Rouge. The Gators are at home this weekend against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas looked great in their win against Auburn last week. Florida is favored by 25.5 this week against Arkansas. If you’re in Vegas take that bet. The Gators win big in Gainesville against the Razorbacks. Florida 47, Arkansas 18.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0): The hype is over…Not the Crimson Tide hype, the Ole Miss hype. Alabama took them from Ole Miss, to OLD Miss. The Rebels BSC hopes are over. Last week I suggested Miss QB Snead needs a big week against Alabama and the Tide shut him down. This week the Alabama faces Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Game Cocks in Tuscaloosa. South Carolina may be able to pull off the upset!! Not so fast my friend. Alabama wins a close defensive battle. Alabama 17, South Carolina 7.
3. Texas Longhorns (6-0): Last week Texas played a bad Colorado team in Austin. Texas beat the Buffalos 38-14. I can’t get over the consistent slow starts Texas gets against the weak opponents they’ve faced this year. The Longhorns strength of schedule so far this year is 101 out of 120. This week all that will change on a neutral site against the Oklahoma Sooners. Do you remember last year’s game? Will the Sooners stampede the Longhorns? Texas wins again. Texas 43, Oklahoma 39.
4. USC Trojans (4-1): Last week the USC Trojans had a bye week. Bye weeks are huge in college football, particularly when the team with the week off has such a good coach. I was listening to “The Hurd” on ESPN radio this morning and former Notre Dame great Tim Brown was a guest. He said that Notre Dame Fans expect to beat USC this weekend. I guess Notre Dame has a lot of confidence. USC does have to travel to cold South Bend. USC plays out of conference teams on the road better than any team in the country. It will be closer than usual. USC 23, Notre Dame 17.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1): Boston College is a pretty good football team. Virginia Tech beat Boston College 48-14 last week. This week Virginia Tech has to travel back to Atlanta. I say travel back, because the first week of the season Virginia Tech played Alabama in the Georgia Dome. Bama gave the Hokies a beat-down. This week Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech. This visit to Georgia will make Tech happy. Which Tech? Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 12.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1): Last week Ohio State handled Wisconsin fairly easily. It was tough for the Buckeyes in the first half, and then Ohio State pulled away. This week the Buckeyes travel to Purdue. I have a feeling it will be a tough game, but only in the first half. Ohio State 28, Purdue 7.
7. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0): Last night (Thursday) Cincinnati played South Florida. Remember what I said about having a bye week in college football, particularly when the bye team has a good coach. In this case it was Cincinnati and their coach is one of the best coaches in the country. South Florida gave Cincinnati a tough game but Cincinnati pull it out 34-17, in a game that was closer than the score suggests.
8. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (5-0): TCU played a tough Air Force Academy team last week. Air Force played a great game on their home field in a loss to TCU (24-17). This week Colorado State travels to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs. TCU stays undefeated. TCU 32, Colorado State 19.
9. Miami Hurricanes (4-1): It’s about time the Canes played a team that wasn’t ranked. Miami had their way with Florida A&M last week 48-16, in a well deserved break from the action. This week it gets a little tougher for Miami as they play Central Florida. Miami cruises to a victory. Miami 28, Central Florida 12.
10. Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) : Clearly the best two loss team in the country. The Sooners played an improved Baylor as a warm up game for Sam Bradford in his first game back in action. I think Oklahoma and Texas are evenly matched. As I suggested earlier, the Sooners will soon be the best three loss team in the country. Texas beats Oklahoma 43-39.
11. LSU Tigers (4-1): A well needed bye week for the LSU Tigers. Last week their defense looked impressive against Florida, holding them to only 13 points. If LSU can get their offense together this year perhaps they can be ready for Bama later this year. First LSU has to deal with Auburn next weekend. That should game be interesting.
12. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0): Iowa just keeps winning ugly. Last week it was against my beloved Wolverines in prime time. The importance of home games. The game against Michigan could have gone either way. Michigan QB Tate Forcier was hurt and didn’t play the last two series of the game. Iowa stepped up big in a 30-28 win. This week will be another grinder for Iowa as they travel to Wisconsin. Look for Iowa to get its first loss of the year in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beats Iowa 28-20.
13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-1): Georgia Tech made history last week in Tallahassee. They beat Florida State at home for the first time in school history. “Da Gummit” (spelling?), is what Bobby Bowden said after the historic loss to the Yellow Jackets in a high scoring weather delayed shootout (49-44). This week in the battle of the Tech schools the Yellow Jackets lose to a very good Virginia tech team. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 12.
14. Boise State Broncos (6-0): Those bye weeks again. Boise State had the week of before traveling to Tulsa in a game that was up for grabs until the final minute. Tulsa wide out Slick Shelly was wide open on a fourth down play when QB G.J. Kinney couldn’t connect. Boise State lucked out in this game. The Broncos barely won 28-21, and as you can tell from the score it wasn’t a convincing win for Boise State.
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1): “Yawn” , Penn State plays another weak non-conference opponent as they crushed Eastern Illinois 52-3 in a challenging (to stay awake) contest. Don’t look for any blowouts in Happy Valley this week. The Minnesota Golden Gophers come to town. It depends on how you define blowouts. Penn State beats Minnesota firmly 37-7.
16. BYU Cougars (5-1): Last week UNLV hosted BYU and was dominated 59-21 by the Cougars. It would be tough to be a college football player that has to travel to Vegas to play a game. But I guess it’s worse if you’re a college football player and you live in Vegas. Another distracting place to travel to play a game is San Diego. That’s where BYU travels this week to play San Diego State. BYU stays focused and smashes San Diego State 48-19.
17. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1): I’m still getting over Oklahoma State wide out Dez Bryant getting suspended for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. His suspension kept fans in suspense as Oklahoma State barely beat Texas A&M last week. This week the Cowboys face the Missouri Tigers. The suspense continues and Oklahoma State keeps winning. Oklahoma State 27, Missouri 20.
18. Oregon Ducks (5-1): UCLA looked awful on offense last week against Oregon. The Ducks beat the Bruins 24-10 in Pasadena. Oregon’s next road trip is to Washington after a bye week this week.
19. Kansas Jayhawks (5-0): Kansas barely beat Iowa State last week in a 41-36 defensiveness Big-12 classic. Kansas puts their undefeated record on the line this week against Colorado in beautiful Boulder. Kansas KO’s Colorado 32-18.
20. Wisconsin Badgers (5-1): Wisconsin had a chance to make a statement in Columbus last week but fell way short losing 31-13. Too many mistakes against Ohio State proved to be the difference. Wisconsin returns to Madison to host the Iowa Hawkeyes who are either lucky or good. Iowa’s luck runs out this weekend. Wisconsin 28, Iowa 20.
21. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1): Back to the Bye week again. This advantage only applies when the opposing team doesn’t also have a bye week and/or the coach is average. Notre Dame had a bye week to prepare for USC, but USC also had a bye week to prepare for Notre Dame. I’ll take Pete or Charlie any day. USC 23, Notre Dame 15.
22. South Florida Bulls (5-1): The Bulls hosted a brilliant Cincinnati team last night (Thursday) on ESPN. Cincinnati does it again beating South Florida 34-17.
23. Houston Cougars (4-1) : Cougars seem to be popular these days, at least in the college football rankings (see BYU). Houston makes it back into the top 25 with a win against SEC Mississippi State. Houston heads to the Big Easy to take on Tulane. Let’s see if the Houston Cougars can beat Tulane the same way the BYU Cougars beat them. Cougars rule!! Houston 41, Tulane 14.
24. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1): Nebraska looked great beating a good Missouri team 27-12. If my memory recalls, Nebraska score all their points in the second half. Will Nebraska get back into the Big-12 limelight this year? The Cornhuskers will have another solid test against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. It will be a fun game to watch as Nebraska gets back to elite form. Nebraska 43, Texas Tech 39.
25. Utah Utes (4-1): Teams that battle from behind and win games on the road are teams to watch and respect. Last week Utah pulled out a close win against Colorado State in Ft. Collins, CO 24-17. UNLV travels to Utah (what a contrast in geographies, again see BYU) this week. Utah makes it look easy. Utah 54, UNLV 27.
Enjoy the weekend college football fans. I look forward to catching up to you next week from Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Michigan vs. Penn State)
Friday, October 9, 2009
Week sIx: First Rob Rankings Post
College Football Week Six
Greetings College Football Fans,
I typically pick games on gut using a little data to back up my assumptions. This week we will take the approach of picking for supreme accuracy. Not only will we look at win/loss accuracy, but we will also attempt to pick against the spread and predict the over/under and beat Las Vegas. Let’s see how it goes!! We also have the fist calculations of the patent protected College Football Rob Rankings.
Can’t Miss Games in Week Six:
Florida @ LSU (Vegas Picks Florida by 7.5, over/under 45.5)
This is a tricky pick. Tebow or no Tebow? We are going to make a strong assumption that Tim Tebow will play against LSU Saturday night. The next questions is, how effective will he be with the remnants of a concussion? He is in concussion suburbia. I still see that hit from Kentucky defender #97. I’ve never seen a hit shown so much in two weeks. The expectations the Gators have put on themselves are beyond winning the national championship. Florida wants this team to be the best college football team in history. Not Florida history…College Football History. If they are going to achieve this beyond lofty goal, they clearly need to win this weekend in Red Baton. If Florida can escape with a BIG win, they will make a great argument for their historic expectations.
LSU will play at home against the best team in the world. The Tigers are ranked #4 in the country and have a chance to win a national title of their own. I’m sure Les Miles made practice as difficult as possible while working on the teams weaknesses. What are their weaknesses? LSU doesn’t score a heck of a lot of points for a fourth ranked team. They only average 27 points per game compiled against Washington, Vanderbilt Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Another challenge LSU has is their defense allows many long sustained drives. Fortunately these drives only resulted in a total of 74 points in five games. However, against Florida, those drives will be converted into touchdowns. LSU could not have made it any closer against Georgia last weekend. On the bright side, LSU is playing at home, at night, with arguably the wildest crowd in the country to see a football game.
When LSU won the national championship a few years ago, they had the best defensive front four in the country by far, this year that front four is just average. Tim Tebow will probably play because the stakes are so high. The fortunate thing for LSU is that Tebow will not be try to bull over defenders head first this week. We will see the fineness version of him. The fineness version of Tebow will get the job done. Florida will win this game and fall just below Las Vegas’7.5 spread. Both teams will have just enough offense to be over the 45.5. Florida beats LSU 28-21.
Auburn @ Arkansas (Vegas Picks Auburn by 2.5, over/under 65.5)
This will be the SEC’s week’s step child game (still important, but not quite as important). We’ve talked about Florida and LSU, but don’t forget about Alabama and Ole Miss. So this game falls in the tertiary step child position. Anyway…This might be the most entertaining game in the SEC this week. Auburn won at Tennessee and is now 5-0. Who would have thought an Iowa State head coach (yes, Chizik was Iowa State’s head coach last year) would turn the storied Auburn program around in his first year. Auburn is finally on the national radar ranked #17 in the country. Will the Tigers (War Eagle?) be ready for the high flying team from the land of Wal-Mart? Last week Arkansas gave an improved Texas A&M team a wood shed beat down in a 47-19 blowout on a semi neutral field (in Dallas). The Razorbacks are the SEC’s number one passing team led by Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett. The ex Wolverine has put Arkansas in the position (at least offensively) to beat any team in the SEC. If Arkansas can beat Auburn, they will make the SEC race wide open. The Razorbacks need beat Auburn, because the following two weeks they face Florida and Ole Miss.
While I’m very impressed with Arkansas’s offense, their defense is quite the disappointment. I suppose Bobby Petrino is only an offensive coach. Arkansas’s defense ranks 105 in opponent yards per play. This stat is a major predictor for winning football games and they are fifteen places from being worst in the country in that catogory. What about the Texas A&M game? A&M only scored 19 points but Arkansas’s defense allowed 345 yards passing and 115 yards rushing. While Arkansas can hang with anyone in a shootout, Auburn is much more efficient when it comes to scoring points than Texas A&M . I strongly suggest that Auburn will be 6-0 after this weekend. Auburn will barely beat the spread and collectively both teams fall just short of the over/under. Auburn shops at Wal-Mart this weekend and comes away with a deal. Auburn beats Arkansas 32-29.
Alabama @ Ole Miss (Vegas picks Bama by 4.5, over/under 46.5)
Can you believe this is the second most important game in the SEC this week? The bigger question, what is up with Jevan Snead? He looks terrible this year. The offense is unproductive and Snead’s passer rating is 68th in the country. According to Mel Kiper, Snead is supposed to be the first QB picked in the NFL draft. The Ole Miss offense was dismal at best against South Carolina in a loss. Alabama is ranked # 1 in the Rob Rankings and deserve to be #1 in the other polls. Alabama manhandled Arkansas a few weeks ago and that first win against Virginia Tech was quite impressive. If Alabama can beat Ole Miss this weekend they should ranked # 1 in the country. (My opinion, but won’t happen unless Florida &Texas lose). Alabama will have to beat LSU and Auburn down the road to increase their chances of a # ranking. Ole Miss is too talented to be playing the underachiever roll the entire season. If Ole Miss beats Alabama, they will shake up the standings in the SEC West.
For Ole Miss to have a chance against Alabama, Jevan Snead will have to step up this weekend. Ole Miss will not be able to run the football against the Alabama front seven led by Terrance Cody. So the pressure is on Mr. Snead to make it happen for the Rebels. Alabama has the best defense in the country and will put incredible pressure on Snead all afternoon. Ole Miss is playing at home which may help them. Home field helps Ole Miss against the spread, but not in the win/loss column. Alabama beats Ole Miss at home 24-22 on the under.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Vegas picks OSU by 16, over/under 47.5)
Ohio State lost a tough game to USC the second game of the season. The game was so close that it took a Matt Barkley 90 yard drive for the game winning touchdown with little time left in the game. Since that tough loss, Ohio State has bounced back with a vengeance beating Toledo, Illinois and Indiana by acombined score of 101-14. Indiana is much improved but Illinois and Toledo are bad. Ohio State ends their season with games at Penn State and Iowa with their final game at Michigan. Before those three tough games Ohio State has Purdue, Minnesota and New Mexico State. So Ohio State could be 8-1 and undefeated in the Big 10 before that last stretch. But they must first beat Wisconsin. The Badgers are 5-0. They are an interesting team as they dominate teams in the first three quarters and let the opposition creep back in during the fourth quarter. They have actually owned the teams they’ve played, but that fourth quarter creep makes games seem closer than they are. If Wisconsin can beat Ohio State this weekend they will face Iowa the following week for what could be a Big Ten title game. Can Wisconsin play four quarters of football against Ohio State? Will Ohio State top their biggest win of the season so far (Navy)? Ohio State and Wisconsin have played some exciting games in the last three years. Terrell Prior led Ohio State to a last minute comeback in camp Randal Stadium last year. Wisconsin beat Ohio State in 2003 and 2004. Ohio State has dominated the Big 10 the last nine years but is only 7-5-1 against the Badgers since 1992.
Terrell Prior is quietly becoming an efficient pocket passer. We haven’t even talked about the 6’5” quarterbacks 4.3 speed. Wisconsin has had an excellent pass rush this year, but their secondary has given up to may short to mid-range pass completions on critical downs. Wisconsin also hasn’t seen a rushing game like the one they will see against Ohio State. Fresno State has a great rushing game, but they threw most of the time against Wisconsin trying to get back into the game. Wisconsin beats the spread but Ohio State wins the game. Ohio State beats Wisconsin 27-20. The combined score will fall on the under.
Michigan @ Iowa (Vegas picks Iowa by 7.5, over/under 47.5)
I will be one of the few people in the country watching this game as the priority game. As we know 90% of the college football world will be watching Florida and LSU. So this is a must read. Both Michigan and Iowa will be drinking truth serum as we will find out how good these teams really are. Last week Michigan scored two touchdowns with four minutes left in the game to tie Michigan State before losing to the Spartans in overtime. Tate Forcier is proving himself as a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10. Forcier led Michigan to comeback wins against Notre Dame and Indiana before finally striking out to Michigan State. Iowa is undefeated with a below average offense, a defense that gives up a ton of yards (but few points) and special teams that are average.
Tate Forcier plays beyond his years, but he is still only a true freshman playing high school football last year in sunny San Diego. As impressive as he’s been, he’s good for one critical interception a game. As I mentioned Iowa gives up yards but not points. They are great at getting turnovers at the right time. This game is strength on strength. Michigan is 13th in the country in scoring offensive and 15th in the country in scoring per play. Iowa is 19th in the country in scoring defense. Unfortunately for Michigan Iowa is at home. Michigan beats the spread but losses the game in a hard fought battle. Both teams score enough to favor the over. Iowa beats Michigan 27-23.
Quick Picks: Other games to watch
Georgia Tech @ Florida State (Vegas picks Florida State by 2.5, over/under 54.5)
Christian Ponder has been getting hit often, but he is the guy that will need to change the direction of the offense. Georgia Tech has had problems defending the pass this year and Ponder is good enough to exploit this. Georgia Tech has given up ten touchdown passes in five games and rank 88th in the country in pass efficiency defense. Florida State wide-outs Bert Reed, Richard Goodman and Rod Owens are going to have to help Ponder as Florida State’s rushing offense hasn’t been very impressive this year. Florida State should have won this game last year at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech will beat the spread but Florida State wins the game, but barely. Both teams score enough to combine for the over. Florida State beats Georgia Tech 28-27.
Oregon @ UCLA (Vegas favors Oregon by 3.5, over/under 46.5)
The Oregon Ducks have not lost since the infamous punch at Boise State. Oregon’s offense looks good but their defense looks better. Oregon lost their best defensive back (Walter Thurman), but the Ducks have only given up one touchdown in the last two games. They are on a roll. Oregon’s defense leads the PAC 10 in turnovers and that has been reflected in their wins. It’s all about Oregon. UCLA beats the spread but Oregon wins the game. Both teams score barely enough to beat the spread. Oregon beats UCLA 26-23.
Stanford @ Oregon State (Vegas favors Oregon State by 0.5, over/under 51.5)
Stanford leads the PAC-10 in fewest sacks allowed. Stanford QB Andrew Luck will have all day to find open receivers. Oregon State ranks 114th in the country in pass defense and only has three sacks all year. Stanford beats Vegas and Oregon State and the scoring aggregate is over 51.5. Stanford beats Oregon State 27-25.
Georgia @ Tennessee (Vegas favors Tennessee by 1, over/under 46.5)
Georgia’s defense will provide all the big breaks Tennessee needs to get its offense in sink. Who has the bigger turnover problem this year between these two teams? Georgia. The Dawgs are 115th in the country in turnover margin and dead last in the SEC. Tennessee beats the spread and Vegas and both teams score just enough for the over. Tennessee beats Georgia 28-20. Check out the biggest Tennessee fan I know and his new blog. www.letstalksecfootball.blogspot.com Wade, good luck with those Vols this weekend.
Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M (Vegas favors OSU by 5.5, over/under 61.5)
Houston’s quarterback ripped Oklahoma State’s defense for 366 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Texas A&M lost last week to Arkansas, but A&M’s passing game was still effective. Oklahoma State has a mediocre pass rush and A&M QB Jarrod Johnson should have plenty of time to pick apart Oklahoma State’s defense. Don’t forget about Dez Bryant, OSU’s best receiver is suspended for the year for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State in an upset. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State 30-29 with the twelfth man on their side.
The first look at this year’s Rob Rankings:
The methodology behind the rankings is a reflection of the offensive and defensive stats that directly correlate to wins combined with strength of schedule: Here is my top 25. These rankings will obviously shift as the season continues.
Rob Rankings Top 25: Reflecting the first five weeks of the season.
1. Alabama 5.51
2. Florida 7.43
3. Nebraska 10.38
4. USC 11.29
5. Texas 15.26
6. TCU 15.76
7. Boise State 17.07
8. Oklahoma 21.88
9. Virginia Tech 22.44
10. Ohio State 23.51
11. Kansas 24.44
12. Oregon 26.67
13. Cincinnati 28.73
14. South Florida 29.76
15. Tennessee 32.48
16. Stanford 32.65
17. Arizona 36.19
18. LSU 37.60
19. UCLA 37.77
20. Pittsburgh 39.49
21. Miami (FL) 39.66
22. South Carolina 39.88
23. Georgia 40.11
24. Penn State 40.20
25. West Virginia 40.28
Enjoy the games this weekend.
Greetings College Football Fans,
I typically pick games on gut using a little data to back up my assumptions. This week we will take the approach of picking for supreme accuracy. Not only will we look at win/loss accuracy, but we will also attempt to pick against the spread and predict the over/under and beat Las Vegas. Let’s see how it goes!! We also have the fist calculations of the patent protected College Football Rob Rankings.
Can’t Miss Games in Week Six:
Florida @ LSU (Vegas Picks Florida by 7.5, over/under 45.5)
This is a tricky pick. Tebow or no Tebow? We are going to make a strong assumption that Tim Tebow will play against LSU Saturday night. The next questions is, how effective will he be with the remnants of a concussion? He is in concussion suburbia. I still see that hit from Kentucky defender #97. I’ve never seen a hit shown so much in two weeks. The expectations the Gators have put on themselves are beyond winning the national championship. Florida wants this team to be the best college football team in history. Not Florida history…College Football History. If they are going to achieve this beyond lofty goal, they clearly need to win this weekend in Red Baton. If Florida can escape with a BIG win, they will make a great argument for their historic expectations.
LSU will play at home against the best team in the world. The Tigers are ranked #4 in the country and have a chance to win a national title of their own. I’m sure Les Miles made practice as difficult as possible while working on the teams weaknesses. What are their weaknesses? LSU doesn’t score a heck of a lot of points for a fourth ranked team. They only average 27 points per game compiled against Washington, Vanderbilt Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Another challenge LSU has is their defense allows many long sustained drives. Fortunately these drives only resulted in a total of 74 points in five games. However, against Florida, those drives will be converted into touchdowns. LSU could not have made it any closer against Georgia last weekend. On the bright side, LSU is playing at home, at night, with arguably the wildest crowd in the country to see a football game.
When LSU won the national championship a few years ago, they had the best defensive front four in the country by far, this year that front four is just average. Tim Tebow will probably play because the stakes are so high. The fortunate thing for LSU is that Tebow will not be try to bull over defenders head first this week. We will see the fineness version of him. The fineness version of Tebow will get the job done. Florida will win this game and fall just below Las Vegas’7.5 spread. Both teams will have just enough offense to be over the 45.5. Florida beats LSU 28-21.
Auburn @ Arkansas (Vegas Picks Auburn by 2.5, over/under 65.5)
This will be the SEC’s week’s step child game (still important, but not quite as important). We’ve talked about Florida and LSU, but don’t forget about Alabama and Ole Miss. So this game falls in the tertiary step child position. Anyway…This might be the most entertaining game in the SEC this week. Auburn won at Tennessee and is now 5-0. Who would have thought an Iowa State head coach (yes, Chizik was Iowa State’s head coach last year) would turn the storied Auburn program around in his first year. Auburn is finally on the national radar ranked #17 in the country. Will the Tigers (War Eagle?) be ready for the high flying team from the land of Wal-Mart? Last week Arkansas gave an improved Texas A&M team a wood shed beat down in a 47-19 blowout on a semi neutral field (in Dallas). The Razorbacks are the SEC’s number one passing team led by Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett. The ex Wolverine has put Arkansas in the position (at least offensively) to beat any team in the SEC. If Arkansas can beat Auburn, they will make the SEC race wide open. The Razorbacks need beat Auburn, because the following two weeks they face Florida and Ole Miss.
While I’m very impressed with Arkansas’s offense, their defense is quite the disappointment. I suppose Bobby Petrino is only an offensive coach. Arkansas’s defense ranks 105 in opponent yards per play. This stat is a major predictor for winning football games and they are fifteen places from being worst in the country in that catogory. What about the Texas A&M game? A&M only scored 19 points but Arkansas’s defense allowed 345 yards passing and 115 yards rushing. While Arkansas can hang with anyone in a shootout, Auburn is much more efficient when it comes to scoring points than Texas A&M . I strongly suggest that Auburn will be 6-0 after this weekend. Auburn will barely beat the spread and collectively both teams fall just short of the over/under. Auburn shops at Wal-Mart this weekend and comes away with a deal. Auburn beats Arkansas 32-29.
Alabama @ Ole Miss (Vegas picks Bama by 4.5, over/under 46.5)
Can you believe this is the second most important game in the SEC this week? The bigger question, what is up with Jevan Snead? He looks terrible this year. The offense is unproductive and Snead’s passer rating is 68th in the country. According to Mel Kiper, Snead is supposed to be the first QB picked in the NFL draft. The Ole Miss offense was dismal at best against South Carolina in a loss. Alabama is ranked # 1 in the Rob Rankings and deserve to be #1 in the other polls. Alabama manhandled Arkansas a few weeks ago and that first win against Virginia Tech was quite impressive. If Alabama can beat Ole Miss this weekend they should ranked # 1 in the country. (My opinion, but won’t happen unless Florida &Texas lose). Alabama will have to beat LSU and Auburn down the road to increase their chances of a # ranking. Ole Miss is too talented to be playing the underachiever roll the entire season. If Ole Miss beats Alabama, they will shake up the standings in the SEC West.
For Ole Miss to have a chance against Alabama, Jevan Snead will have to step up this weekend. Ole Miss will not be able to run the football against the Alabama front seven led by Terrance Cody. So the pressure is on Mr. Snead to make it happen for the Rebels. Alabama has the best defense in the country and will put incredible pressure on Snead all afternoon. Ole Miss is playing at home which may help them. Home field helps Ole Miss against the spread, but not in the win/loss column. Alabama beats Ole Miss at home 24-22 on the under.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Vegas picks OSU by 16, over/under 47.5)
Ohio State lost a tough game to USC the second game of the season. The game was so close that it took a Matt Barkley 90 yard drive for the game winning touchdown with little time left in the game. Since that tough loss, Ohio State has bounced back with a vengeance beating Toledo, Illinois and Indiana by acombined score of 101-14. Indiana is much improved but Illinois and Toledo are bad. Ohio State ends their season with games at Penn State and Iowa with their final game at Michigan. Before those three tough games Ohio State has Purdue, Minnesota and New Mexico State. So Ohio State could be 8-1 and undefeated in the Big 10 before that last stretch. But they must first beat Wisconsin. The Badgers are 5-0. They are an interesting team as they dominate teams in the first three quarters and let the opposition creep back in during the fourth quarter. They have actually owned the teams they’ve played, but that fourth quarter creep makes games seem closer than they are. If Wisconsin can beat Ohio State this weekend they will face Iowa the following week for what could be a Big Ten title game. Can Wisconsin play four quarters of football against Ohio State? Will Ohio State top their biggest win of the season so far (Navy)? Ohio State and Wisconsin have played some exciting games in the last three years. Terrell Prior led Ohio State to a last minute comeback in camp Randal Stadium last year. Wisconsin beat Ohio State in 2003 and 2004. Ohio State has dominated the Big 10 the last nine years but is only 7-5-1 against the Badgers since 1992.
Terrell Prior is quietly becoming an efficient pocket passer. We haven’t even talked about the 6’5” quarterbacks 4.3 speed. Wisconsin has had an excellent pass rush this year, but their secondary has given up to may short to mid-range pass completions on critical downs. Wisconsin also hasn’t seen a rushing game like the one they will see against Ohio State. Fresno State has a great rushing game, but they threw most of the time against Wisconsin trying to get back into the game. Wisconsin beats the spread but Ohio State wins the game. Ohio State beats Wisconsin 27-20. The combined score will fall on the under.
Michigan @ Iowa (Vegas picks Iowa by 7.5, over/under 47.5)
I will be one of the few people in the country watching this game as the priority game. As we know 90% of the college football world will be watching Florida and LSU. So this is a must read. Both Michigan and Iowa will be drinking truth serum as we will find out how good these teams really are. Last week Michigan scored two touchdowns with four minutes left in the game to tie Michigan State before losing to the Spartans in overtime. Tate Forcier is proving himself as a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10. Forcier led Michigan to comeback wins against Notre Dame and Indiana before finally striking out to Michigan State. Iowa is undefeated with a below average offense, a defense that gives up a ton of yards (but few points) and special teams that are average.
Tate Forcier plays beyond his years, but he is still only a true freshman playing high school football last year in sunny San Diego. As impressive as he’s been, he’s good for one critical interception a game. As I mentioned Iowa gives up yards but not points. They are great at getting turnovers at the right time. This game is strength on strength. Michigan is 13th in the country in scoring offensive and 15th in the country in scoring per play. Iowa is 19th in the country in scoring defense. Unfortunately for Michigan Iowa is at home. Michigan beats the spread but losses the game in a hard fought battle. Both teams score enough to favor the over. Iowa beats Michigan 27-23.
Quick Picks: Other games to watch
Georgia Tech @ Florida State (Vegas picks Florida State by 2.5, over/under 54.5)
Christian Ponder has been getting hit often, but he is the guy that will need to change the direction of the offense. Georgia Tech has had problems defending the pass this year and Ponder is good enough to exploit this. Georgia Tech has given up ten touchdown passes in five games and rank 88th in the country in pass efficiency defense. Florida State wide-outs Bert Reed, Richard Goodman and Rod Owens are going to have to help Ponder as Florida State’s rushing offense hasn’t been very impressive this year. Florida State should have won this game last year at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech will beat the spread but Florida State wins the game, but barely. Both teams score enough to combine for the over. Florida State beats Georgia Tech 28-27.
Oregon @ UCLA (Vegas favors Oregon by 3.5, over/under 46.5)
The Oregon Ducks have not lost since the infamous punch at Boise State. Oregon’s offense looks good but their defense looks better. Oregon lost their best defensive back (Walter Thurman), but the Ducks have only given up one touchdown in the last two games. They are on a roll. Oregon’s defense leads the PAC 10 in turnovers and that has been reflected in their wins. It’s all about Oregon. UCLA beats the spread but Oregon wins the game. Both teams score barely enough to beat the spread. Oregon beats UCLA 26-23.
Stanford @ Oregon State (Vegas favors Oregon State by 0.5, over/under 51.5)
Stanford leads the PAC-10 in fewest sacks allowed. Stanford QB Andrew Luck will have all day to find open receivers. Oregon State ranks 114th in the country in pass defense and only has three sacks all year. Stanford beats Vegas and Oregon State and the scoring aggregate is over 51.5. Stanford beats Oregon State 27-25.
Georgia @ Tennessee (Vegas favors Tennessee by 1, over/under 46.5)
Georgia’s defense will provide all the big breaks Tennessee needs to get its offense in sink. Who has the bigger turnover problem this year between these two teams? Georgia. The Dawgs are 115th in the country in turnover margin and dead last in the SEC. Tennessee beats the spread and Vegas and both teams score just enough for the over. Tennessee beats Georgia 28-20. Check out the biggest Tennessee fan I know and his new blog. www.letstalksecfootball.blogspot.com Wade, good luck with those Vols this weekend.
Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M (Vegas favors OSU by 5.5, over/under 61.5)
Houston’s quarterback ripped Oklahoma State’s defense for 366 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Texas A&M lost last week to Arkansas, but A&M’s passing game was still effective. Oklahoma State has a mediocre pass rush and A&M QB Jarrod Johnson should have plenty of time to pick apart Oklahoma State’s defense. Don’t forget about Dez Bryant, OSU’s best receiver is suspended for the year for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State in an upset. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State 30-29 with the twelfth man on their side.
The first look at this year’s Rob Rankings:
The methodology behind the rankings is a reflection of the offensive and defensive stats that directly correlate to wins combined with strength of schedule: Here is my top 25. These rankings will obviously shift as the season continues.
Rob Rankings Top 25: Reflecting the first five weeks of the season.
1. Alabama 5.51
2. Florida 7.43
3. Nebraska 10.38
4. USC 11.29
5. Texas 15.26
6. TCU 15.76
7. Boise State 17.07
8. Oklahoma 21.88
9. Virginia Tech 22.44
10. Ohio State 23.51
11. Kansas 24.44
12. Oregon 26.67
13. Cincinnati 28.73
14. South Florida 29.76
15. Tennessee 32.48
16. Stanford 32.65
17. Arizona 36.19
18. LSU 37.60
19. UCLA 37.77
20. Pittsburgh 39.49
21. Miami (FL) 39.66
22. South Carolina 39.88
23. Georgia 40.11
24. Penn State 40.20
25. West Virginia 40.28
Enjoy the games this weekend.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
A weekend for away teams.....
Week Five: College Football Picks
Greetings College Football Fans,
A top five team has tumbled every week this season. Let’s see what happens next.
Big Games:
Oklahoma @ Miami
Remember when these teams used to battle in the 80’s? If Miami had not lost to Virginia Tech last week this game would be a throwback with the same implications on the national championship spotlight that existed twenty years ago. That’s OK, because this game is still huge. You’ve got to love Miami QB Jacory Harris. Did you see the story on him during Game Day last Saturday? How can you root against him? If Miami can beat Oklahoma this Saturday, it will prove they are a contender once again. With a Miami win this weekend, they will show the character it takes to be champions (bouncing back from the VT loss). If Oklahoma can win they will get back into the national title chase. As I’m typing, ESPN just announced Sam Bradford will not play against Miami.
You were witness last week to what Virginia Tech’s defense did to Miami. I like Virginia Tech’s defense a lot, but I’d take Oklahoma’s defense anytime over VT’s. Virginia Tech’s defense held Miami’s running game to only 59 yards and brought significant on Jacory Harris all afternoon. If you think about the Miami games against Florida State and Georgia Tech, Harris had time. Against Virginia Tech, Harris was just 9-25 for only 150 yards and one pick. Oklahoma’s defense has a better pass rush than Virginia Tech’s. The Sooners have had 12 sacks in three games. They also lead the nation is tackles for a loss. Oklahoma’s defense also leads the nation in run defense only allowing 41 yards per game. Oklahoma wins on the road. Oklahoma wins 26-17.
USC @ California
We all want a college football playoff. Consider this a PAC-10 playoff game, because the loser will be out of the Rose Bowl race. California can’t seem to get out of the “we’re almost good”bucket. They were absolutely blown out against Oregon last week. Cal has a great opportunity to show the country they are better than almost good. Bottom line here, whoever loses this game can pack it up for the season.
USC’s offense hasn’t been this bad since pre Pete Carroll. Last week against Washington State USC put up big numbers. However, Cal is playing at home and their much better team than Washington State. The Golden Bears have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the country. I think Cal will pick it up and beat USC this year. Cal wins 33-27. USC is done.
LSU @ Georgia
Who is the quietest team in the country? LSU is now ranked #5 in the country (very sneaky). I’ll say they sure don’t seem like a #5 team. LSU just barely squeaked past Mississippi State last week, holding them in a goal line stand to win the game. Remember the magic #5. One top five team has lost every week this season. Georgia is also finding ways to win games. It’s been a weird year for the Dawgs. Shoot outs against Arkansas and South Carolina and a last second field goal to beat Arizona State last week. Georgia has clearly rebounded from their first game against Oklahoma State, but they are incredibly inconsistent. Georgia really needs to win this game. The Dawgs following two games are on the road and then they travel to Jacksonville for the cocktail party against Florida.
Weird games like this come down to turnovers. LSU is fifth in the country in turnover ratio and only has three total turnovers this year. Georgia is 115th in turnover margin. LSU beats Georgia between the hedges. LSU wins 39-15.
Auburn @ Tennessee
Here is a social status game. Both teams want their social status back. Auburn is actually scoring points this year. The offense and defense both look good and new coach Gene Chizik is off to a great start. Auburn is much improved when you compare them to last year’s team. For example, last year Auburn only scored 207 points the entire season (17 points per game). Auburn’s competition so far this year hasn’t been awful. They have beaten Mississippi State, West Virginia and Louisiana Tech who blew out Hawaii last night. Let’s examine Tennessee…They played a good game against Florida, holding them to 23 points in a Tennessee loss. The Vol’s beat Ohio University (not Ohio State) and Western Kentucky. Almost forgot about Tennessee’s loss to an improved UCLA in Knoxville.
I asked my good friend Wade, (a diehard Tennessee fan) what Tennessee’s biggest challenge is this year and he explicitly said “QUARTERBACK”. Looking at Jonathan Crompton’s (UT QB) passing stats, he has thrown seven touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. On the bright side Tennessee’s running game is descent. However, it is going to be tough for Tennessee against a not perfect but competitive Auburn defense. Tennessee will have to rush for over 200 yards to make up for their inefficient passing game and Auburns defense isn’t that bad. Auburn wins a close one. Auburn wins 26-24.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas)
Do you remember the old Southwest Conference? That old conference consisted of all the Texas schools and Arkansas. This is an old Southwest Conference game. These team are just average, but this should be an entertaining game. These two team are the types that will beat an undefeated team and ruin their season while Arkansas and Texas A&M have nothing to play for. Both teams will probably make a bowl this year, but they are average at best. So why am I writing about them and wasting our time?, pure entertainment value, offense and nostalgia. Arkansas was blasted 35-7 last week against Alabama (my #1 team in the country). Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (Michigan transfer) is 6’7” and will play in the NFL in a few years. He can put up points and Arkansas’s defense can too (team can score at will on Arkansas). Did you know Texas A&M had the #1 offense in the country averaging 575 yards per game? Their defense so far has only given up 55 points in three games.
It takes eleven players to field a defense. However, Arkansas has only been fielding seven. The Razorbacks have no secondary at all. Arkansas’s other seven players are a little better and can apply a moderate pass rush, but Texas A&M QB Jarrod Johnson is mobile and an above average passer. Georgia QB Joe Cox lit up the Arkansas defense for over 50 points and Alabama QB Greg McElroy threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M will have a field day. Texas A&M wins 24-10.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
This game is not always on the radar, especially if you don’t live in the Midwest. IF you look at the history of this game it’s always a shootout. Not surprising since both teams are playing for the Paul Bunyan Axe every year. These two teams are tied for first in the Big Ten (along with four other teams). But they are the only teams tied for first in the Big Ten that are playing each other this week. Last week Minnesota won an impressive game against tricky Northwestern 35-24. This week’s game will be the first road game for Wisconsin this year. Wisconsin has won by vary narrow margins this year. They beat Fresno State in overtime, and beat both Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight. Wisconsin has to look forward to playing Ohio State and Iowa the following two weeks after their game against Minnesota.
Wisconsin has a very strong running game with John Clay leading the way for the Badgers. Minnesota’s run defense only looks good against average running games. Wisconsin won’t need to rely only on the run against Minnesota. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien will throw to many receivers. He doesn’t make many mistakes and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass as their defense gave up 309 and 252 yards to Northwestern and Cal respectively. Wisconsin wins the Ax. Wisconsin wins 38-27.
Michigan @ Michigan State
As a diehard Wolverine fan, this game scares me. Michigan State has its back against the wall with a 1-3 record. The Spartans are supposed to be a good balanced football team this year. Mark Dantonio was supposed to have a breakout year as Michigan State’s coach. Michigan State lost to a better Wisconsin team last week, handed a victory to Notre Dame and literally gave the game away to Central Michigan. Now it’s Michigan’s tern to be given a gift by the Spartans. Not so fast my friend. Michigan is a few players and two years away from competing for the national championship. Last year Michigan State was competing for the Big ten championship while rival Michigan was in the cellar. Things seem doom and gloom for Michigan State this year, but if they can beat rival Michigan on Saturday life seems a little sunnier for the Spartans.
Michigan State has a defense that doesn’t do anything fancy. They don’t blitz or stunt very often. They tend to stay in a base defense and play very aggressively. Notre Dame had no problem running against the Spartans and Wisconsin put up 193 yards last week. If Michigan State can’t stop the Wolverines rushing attack the Michigan backfield will have a field day (QBs included). Wolverine QB Tate Forcier is banged up so Denard Robinson will get more snaps. The first play of his career at Michigan, Robinson ran for a 40 yard touchdown. Watch out for him against the Spartans this week. Michigan beats Michigan State 38-20. The Wolverines move to 5-0.
Quick Picks
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against SEC teams this year. Vanderbilt was only able to put up 210 yards total offense against LSU and only 157 yards against Mississippi State. The Ole Miss defense will be tough against Vanderbilt rushing offense and they will put lots of pressure on Vandy’s QB Larry Smith.
Ole Miss wins 28-7.
South Florida @ Syracuse
South Florida took Florida State behind the woodshed last week. So far, South Florida’s defense has only allowed 27 points all season (in four games). Their defensive line led by George Selvie is disrupting opposing offenses before the play even gets started. South Florida wins 25-19.
Washington @ Notre Dame
USC and Stanford ran for 571 yards against Washington. I strongly assume Notre Dame’s game plan is the run the football. Notre Dame is at home and more talented than the improved Huskies. Notre Dame wins 24-14.
UCLA @ Stanford
Stanford has a great running back in Toby Gerhart. History shows that when Toby rushes for less than 100 yards Stanford loses. UCLA will shut him down. The Bruins win and stays undefeated. UCLA wins 23-21.
Oregon State @ Arizona State
Arizona State’s defense is the real deal. Last week in Athens, ASU held Georgia’s offense to just 20 points. Arizona State leads the nation in turnover margin, which helps their struggling offense. Arizona State beats Oregon State 12-3.
Enjoy all the games this week. Until next week…..
Greetings College Football Fans,
A top five team has tumbled every week this season. Let’s see what happens next.
Big Games:
Oklahoma @ Miami
Remember when these teams used to battle in the 80’s? If Miami had not lost to Virginia Tech last week this game would be a throwback with the same implications on the national championship spotlight that existed twenty years ago. That’s OK, because this game is still huge. You’ve got to love Miami QB Jacory Harris. Did you see the story on him during Game Day last Saturday? How can you root against him? If Miami can beat Oklahoma this Saturday, it will prove they are a contender once again. With a Miami win this weekend, they will show the character it takes to be champions (bouncing back from the VT loss). If Oklahoma can win they will get back into the national title chase. As I’m typing, ESPN just announced Sam Bradford will not play against Miami.
You were witness last week to what Virginia Tech’s defense did to Miami. I like Virginia Tech’s defense a lot, but I’d take Oklahoma’s defense anytime over VT’s. Virginia Tech’s defense held Miami’s running game to only 59 yards and brought significant on Jacory Harris all afternoon. If you think about the Miami games against Florida State and Georgia Tech, Harris had time. Against Virginia Tech, Harris was just 9-25 for only 150 yards and one pick. Oklahoma’s defense has a better pass rush than Virginia Tech’s. The Sooners have had 12 sacks in three games. They also lead the nation is tackles for a loss. Oklahoma’s defense also leads the nation in run defense only allowing 41 yards per game. Oklahoma wins on the road. Oklahoma wins 26-17.
USC @ California
We all want a college football playoff. Consider this a PAC-10 playoff game, because the loser will be out of the Rose Bowl race. California can’t seem to get out of the “we’re almost good”bucket. They were absolutely blown out against Oregon last week. Cal has a great opportunity to show the country they are better than almost good. Bottom line here, whoever loses this game can pack it up for the season.
USC’s offense hasn’t been this bad since pre Pete Carroll. Last week against Washington State USC put up big numbers. However, Cal is playing at home and their much better team than Washington State. The Golden Bears have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the country. I think Cal will pick it up and beat USC this year. Cal wins 33-27. USC is done.
LSU @ Georgia
Who is the quietest team in the country? LSU is now ranked #5 in the country (very sneaky). I’ll say they sure don’t seem like a #5 team. LSU just barely squeaked past Mississippi State last week, holding them in a goal line stand to win the game. Remember the magic #5. One top five team has lost every week this season. Georgia is also finding ways to win games. It’s been a weird year for the Dawgs. Shoot outs against Arkansas and South Carolina and a last second field goal to beat Arizona State last week. Georgia has clearly rebounded from their first game against Oklahoma State, but they are incredibly inconsistent. Georgia really needs to win this game. The Dawgs following two games are on the road and then they travel to Jacksonville for the cocktail party against Florida.
Weird games like this come down to turnovers. LSU is fifth in the country in turnover ratio and only has three total turnovers this year. Georgia is 115th in turnover margin. LSU beats Georgia between the hedges. LSU wins 39-15.
Auburn @ Tennessee
Here is a social status game. Both teams want their social status back. Auburn is actually scoring points this year. The offense and defense both look good and new coach Gene Chizik is off to a great start. Auburn is much improved when you compare them to last year’s team. For example, last year Auburn only scored 207 points the entire season (17 points per game). Auburn’s competition so far this year hasn’t been awful. They have beaten Mississippi State, West Virginia and Louisiana Tech who blew out Hawaii last night. Let’s examine Tennessee…They played a good game against Florida, holding them to 23 points in a Tennessee loss. The Vol’s beat Ohio University (not Ohio State) and Western Kentucky. Almost forgot about Tennessee’s loss to an improved UCLA in Knoxville.
I asked my good friend Wade, (a diehard Tennessee fan) what Tennessee’s biggest challenge is this year and he explicitly said “QUARTERBACK”. Looking at Jonathan Crompton’s (UT QB) passing stats, he has thrown seven touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. On the bright side Tennessee’s running game is descent. However, it is going to be tough for Tennessee against a not perfect but competitive Auburn defense. Tennessee will have to rush for over 200 yards to make up for their inefficient passing game and Auburns defense isn’t that bad. Auburn wins a close one. Auburn wins 26-24.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas)
Do you remember the old Southwest Conference? That old conference consisted of all the Texas schools and Arkansas. This is an old Southwest Conference game. These team are just average, but this should be an entertaining game. These two team are the types that will beat an undefeated team and ruin their season while Arkansas and Texas A&M have nothing to play for. Both teams will probably make a bowl this year, but they are average at best. So why am I writing about them and wasting our time?, pure entertainment value, offense and nostalgia. Arkansas was blasted 35-7 last week against Alabama (my #1 team in the country). Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (Michigan transfer) is 6’7” and will play in the NFL in a few years. He can put up points and Arkansas’s defense can too (team can score at will on Arkansas). Did you know Texas A&M had the #1 offense in the country averaging 575 yards per game? Their defense so far has only given up 55 points in three games.
It takes eleven players to field a defense. However, Arkansas has only been fielding seven. The Razorbacks have no secondary at all. Arkansas’s other seven players are a little better and can apply a moderate pass rush, but Texas A&M QB Jarrod Johnson is mobile and an above average passer. Georgia QB Joe Cox lit up the Arkansas defense for over 50 points and Alabama QB Greg McElroy threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M will have a field day. Texas A&M wins 24-10.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
This game is not always on the radar, especially if you don’t live in the Midwest. IF you look at the history of this game it’s always a shootout. Not surprising since both teams are playing for the Paul Bunyan Axe every year. These two teams are tied for first in the Big Ten (along with four other teams). But they are the only teams tied for first in the Big Ten that are playing each other this week. Last week Minnesota won an impressive game against tricky Northwestern 35-24. This week’s game will be the first road game for Wisconsin this year. Wisconsin has won by vary narrow margins this year. They beat Fresno State in overtime, and beat both Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight. Wisconsin has to look forward to playing Ohio State and Iowa the following two weeks after their game against Minnesota.
Wisconsin has a very strong running game with John Clay leading the way for the Badgers. Minnesota’s run defense only looks good against average running games. Wisconsin won’t need to rely only on the run against Minnesota. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien will throw to many receivers. He doesn’t make many mistakes and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass as their defense gave up 309 and 252 yards to Northwestern and Cal respectively. Wisconsin wins the Ax. Wisconsin wins 38-27.
Michigan @ Michigan State
As a diehard Wolverine fan, this game scares me. Michigan State has its back against the wall with a 1-3 record. The Spartans are supposed to be a good balanced football team this year. Mark Dantonio was supposed to have a breakout year as Michigan State’s coach. Michigan State lost to a better Wisconsin team last week, handed a victory to Notre Dame and literally gave the game away to Central Michigan. Now it’s Michigan’s tern to be given a gift by the Spartans. Not so fast my friend. Michigan is a few players and two years away from competing for the national championship. Last year Michigan State was competing for the Big ten championship while rival Michigan was in the cellar. Things seem doom and gloom for Michigan State this year, but if they can beat rival Michigan on Saturday life seems a little sunnier for the Spartans.
Michigan State has a defense that doesn’t do anything fancy. They don’t blitz or stunt very often. They tend to stay in a base defense and play very aggressively. Notre Dame had no problem running against the Spartans and Wisconsin put up 193 yards last week. If Michigan State can’t stop the Wolverines rushing attack the Michigan backfield will have a field day (QBs included). Wolverine QB Tate Forcier is banged up so Denard Robinson will get more snaps. The first play of his career at Michigan, Robinson ran for a 40 yard touchdown. Watch out for him against the Spartans this week. Michigan beats Michigan State 38-20. The Wolverines move to 5-0.
Quick Picks
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against SEC teams this year. Vanderbilt was only able to put up 210 yards total offense against LSU and only 157 yards against Mississippi State. The Ole Miss defense will be tough against Vanderbilt rushing offense and they will put lots of pressure on Vandy’s QB Larry Smith.
Ole Miss wins 28-7.
South Florida @ Syracuse
South Florida took Florida State behind the woodshed last week. So far, South Florida’s defense has only allowed 27 points all season (in four games). Their defensive line led by George Selvie is disrupting opposing offenses before the play even gets started. South Florida wins 25-19.
Washington @ Notre Dame
USC and Stanford ran for 571 yards against Washington. I strongly assume Notre Dame’s game plan is the run the football. Notre Dame is at home and more talented than the improved Huskies. Notre Dame wins 24-14.
UCLA @ Stanford
Stanford has a great running back in Toby Gerhart. History shows that when Toby rushes for less than 100 yards Stanford loses. UCLA will shut him down. The Bruins win and stays undefeated. UCLA wins 23-21.
Oregon State @ Arizona State
Arizona State’s defense is the real deal. Last week in Athens, ASU held Georgia’s offense to just 20 points. Arizona State leads the nation in turnover margin, which helps their struggling offense. Arizona State beats Oregon State 12-3.
Enjoy all the games this week. Until next week…..
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