Friday, October 9, 2009

Week sIx: First Rob Rankings Post

College Football Week Six


Greetings College Football Fans,

I typically pick games on gut using a little data to back up my assumptions. This week we will take the approach of picking for supreme accuracy. Not only will we look at win/loss accuracy, but we will also attempt to pick against the spread and predict the over/under and beat Las Vegas. Let’s see how it goes!! We also have the fist calculations of the patent protected College Football Rob Rankings.


Can’t Miss Games in Week Six:

Florida @ LSU (Vegas Picks Florida by 7.5, over/under 45.5)

This is a tricky pick. Tebow or no Tebow? We are going to make a strong assumption that Tim Tebow will play against LSU Saturday night. The next questions is, how effective will he be with the remnants of a concussion? He is in concussion suburbia. I still see that hit from Kentucky defender #97. I’ve never seen a hit shown so much in two weeks. The expectations the Gators have put on themselves are beyond winning the national championship. Florida wants this team to be the best college football team in history. Not Florida history…College Football History. If they are going to achieve this beyond lofty goal, they clearly need to win this weekend in Red Baton. If Florida can escape with a BIG win, they will make a great argument for their historic expectations.

LSU will play at home against the best team in the world. The Tigers are ranked #4 in the country and have a chance to win a national title of their own. I’m sure Les Miles made practice as difficult as possible while working on the teams weaknesses. What are their weaknesses? LSU doesn’t score a heck of a lot of points for a fourth ranked team. They only average 27 points per game compiled against Washington, Vanderbilt Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Another challenge LSU has is their defense allows many long sustained drives. Fortunately these drives only resulted in a total of 74 points in five games. However, against Florida, those drives will be converted into touchdowns. LSU could not have made it any closer against Georgia last weekend. On the bright side, LSU is playing at home, at night, with arguably the wildest crowd in the country to see a football game.

When LSU won the national championship a few years ago, they had the best defensive front four in the country by far, this year that front four is just average. Tim Tebow will probably play because the stakes are so high. The fortunate thing for LSU is that Tebow will not be try to bull over defenders head first this week. We will see the fineness version of him. The fineness version of Tebow will get the job done. Florida will win this game and fall just below Las Vegas’7.5 spread. Both teams will have just enough offense to be over the 45.5. Florida beats LSU 28-21.


Auburn @ Arkansas (Vegas Picks Auburn by 2.5, over/under 65.5)

This will be the SEC’s week’s step child game (still important, but not quite as important). We’ve talked about Florida and LSU, but don’t forget about Alabama and Ole Miss. So this game falls in the tertiary step child position. Anyway…This might be the most entertaining game in the SEC this week. Auburn won at Tennessee and is now 5-0. Who would have thought an Iowa State head coach (yes, Chizik was Iowa State’s head coach last year) would turn the storied Auburn program around in his first year. Auburn is finally on the national radar ranked #17 in the country. Will the Tigers (War Eagle?) be ready for the high flying team from the land of Wal-Mart? Last week Arkansas gave an improved Texas A&M team a wood shed beat down in a 47-19 blowout on a semi neutral field (in Dallas). The Razorbacks are the SEC’s number one passing team led by Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett. The ex Wolverine has put Arkansas in the position (at least offensively) to beat any team in the SEC. If Arkansas can beat Auburn, they will make the SEC race wide open. The Razorbacks need beat Auburn, because the following two weeks they face Florida and Ole Miss.

While I’m very impressed with Arkansas’s offense, their defense is quite the disappointment. I suppose Bobby Petrino is only an offensive coach. Arkansas’s defense ranks 105 in opponent yards per play. This stat is a major predictor for winning football games and they are fifteen places from being worst in the country in that catogory. What about the Texas A&M game? A&M only scored 19 points but Arkansas’s defense allowed 345 yards passing and 115 yards rushing. While Arkansas can hang with anyone in a shootout, Auburn is much more efficient when it comes to scoring points than Texas A&M . I strongly suggest that Auburn will be 6-0 after this weekend. Auburn will barely beat the spread and collectively both teams fall just short of the over/under. Auburn shops at Wal-Mart this weekend and comes away with a deal. Auburn beats Arkansas 32-29.


Alabama @ Ole Miss (Vegas picks Bama by 4.5, over/under 46.5)
Can you believe this is the second most important game in the SEC this week? The bigger question, what is up with Jevan Snead? He looks terrible this year. The offense is unproductive and Snead’s passer rating is 68th in the country. According to Mel Kiper, Snead is supposed to be the first QB picked in the NFL draft. The Ole Miss offense was dismal at best against South Carolina in a loss. Alabama is ranked # 1 in the Rob Rankings and deserve to be #1 in the other polls. Alabama manhandled Arkansas a few weeks ago and that first win against Virginia Tech was quite impressive. If Alabama can beat Ole Miss this weekend they should ranked # 1 in the country. (My opinion, but won’t happen unless Florida &Texas lose). Alabama will have to beat LSU and Auburn down the road to increase their chances of a # ranking. Ole Miss is too talented to be playing the underachiever roll the entire season. If Ole Miss beats Alabama, they will shake up the standings in the SEC West.
For Ole Miss to have a chance against Alabama, Jevan Snead will have to step up this weekend. Ole Miss will not be able to run the football against the Alabama front seven led by Terrance Cody. So the pressure is on Mr. Snead to make it happen for the Rebels. Alabama has the best defense in the country and will put incredible pressure on Snead all afternoon. Ole Miss is playing at home which may help them. Home field helps Ole Miss against the spread, but not in the win/loss column. Alabama beats Ole Miss at home 24-22 on the under.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Vegas picks OSU by 16, over/under 47.5)
Ohio State lost a tough game to USC the second game of the season. The game was so close that it took a Matt Barkley 90 yard drive for the game winning touchdown with little time left in the game. Since that tough loss, Ohio State has bounced back with a vengeance beating Toledo, Illinois and Indiana by acombined score of 101-14. Indiana is much improved but Illinois and Toledo are bad. Ohio State ends their season with games at Penn State and Iowa with their final game at Michigan. Before those three tough games Ohio State has Purdue, Minnesota and New Mexico State. So Ohio State could be 8-1 and undefeated in the Big 10 before that last stretch. But they must first beat Wisconsin. The Badgers are 5-0. They are an interesting team as they dominate teams in the first three quarters and let the opposition creep back in during the fourth quarter. They have actually owned the teams they’ve played, but that fourth quarter creep makes games seem closer than they are. If Wisconsin can beat Ohio State this weekend they will face Iowa the following week for what could be a Big Ten title game. Can Wisconsin play four quarters of football against Ohio State? Will Ohio State top their biggest win of the season so far (Navy)? Ohio State and Wisconsin have played some exciting games in the last three years. Terrell Prior led Ohio State to a last minute comeback in camp Randal Stadium last year. Wisconsin beat Ohio State in 2003 and 2004. Ohio State has dominated the Big 10 the last nine years but is only 7-5-1 against the Badgers since 1992.
Terrell Prior is quietly becoming an efficient pocket passer. We haven’t even talked about the 6’5” quarterbacks 4.3 speed. Wisconsin has had an excellent pass rush this year, but their secondary has given up to may short to mid-range pass completions on critical downs. Wisconsin also hasn’t seen a rushing game like the one they will see against Ohio State. Fresno State has a great rushing game, but they threw most of the time against Wisconsin trying to get back into the game. Wisconsin beats the spread but Ohio State wins the game. Ohio State beats Wisconsin 27-20. The combined score will fall on the under.

Michigan @ Iowa (Vegas picks Iowa by 7.5, over/under 47.5)
I will be one of the few people in the country watching this game as the priority game. As we know 90% of the college football world will be watching Florida and LSU. So this is a must read. Both Michigan and Iowa will be drinking truth serum as we will find out how good these teams really are. Last week Michigan scored two touchdowns with four minutes left in the game to tie Michigan State before losing to the Spartans in overtime. Tate Forcier is proving himself as a force to be reckoned with in the Big 10. Forcier led Michigan to comeback wins against Notre Dame and Indiana before finally striking out to Michigan State. Iowa is undefeated with a below average offense, a defense that gives up a ton of yards (but few points) and special teams that are average.
Tate Forcier plays beyond his years, but he is still only a true freshman playing high school football last year in sunny San Diego. As impressive as he’s been, he’s good for one critical interception a game. As I mentioned Iowa gives up yards but not points. They are great at getting turnovers at the right time. This game is strength on strength. Michigan is 13th in the country in scoring offensive and 15th in the country in scoring per play. Iowa is 19th in the country in scoring defense. Unfortunately for Michigan Iowa is at home. Michigan beats the spread but losses the game in a hard fought battle. Both teams score enough to favor the over. Iowa beats Michigan 27-23.

Quick Picks: Other games to watch

Georgia Tech @ Florida State (Vegas picks Florida State by 2.5, over/under 54.5)

Christian Ponder has been getting hit often, but he is the guy that will need to change the direction of the offense. Georgia Tech has had problems defending the pass this year and Ponder is good enough to exploit this. Georgia Tech has given up ten touchdown passes in five games and rank 88th in the country in pass efficiency defense. Florida State wide-outs Bert Reed, Richard Goodman and Rod Owens are going to have to help Ponder as Florida State’s rushing offense hasn’t been very impressive this year. Florida State should have won this game last year at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech will beat the spread but Florida State wins the game, but barely. Both teams score enough to combine for the over. Florida State beats Georgia Tech 28-27.

Oregon @ UCLA (Vegas favors Oregon by 3.5, over/under 46.5)

The Oregon Ducks have not lost since the infamous punch at Boise State. Oregon’s offense looks good but their defense looks better. Oregon lost their best defensive back (Walter Thurman), but the Ducks have only given up one touchdown in the last two games. They are on a roll. Oregon’s defense leads the PAC 10 in turnovers and that has been reflected in their wins. It’s all about Oregon. UCLA beats the spread but Oregon wins the game. Both teams score barely enough to beat the spread. Oregon beats UCLA 26-23.

Stanford @ Oregon State (Vegas favors Oregon State by 0.5, over/under 51.5)

Stanford leads the PAC-10 in fewest sacks allowed. Stanford QB Andrew Luck will have all day to find open receivers. Oregon State ranks 114th in the country in pass defense and only has three sacks all year. Stanford beats Vegas and Oregon State and the scoring aggregate is over 51.5. Stanford beats Oregon State 27-25.

Georgia @ Tennessee (Vegas favors Tennessee by 1, over/under 46.5)

Georgia’s defense will provide all the big breaks Tennessee needs to get its offense in sink. Who has the bigger turnover problem this year between these two teams? Georgia. The Dawgs are 115th in the country in turnover margin and dead last in the SEC. Tennessee beats the spread and Vegas and both teams score just enough for the over. Tennessee beats Georgia 28-20. Check out the biggest Tennessee fan I know and his new blog. www.letstalksecfootball.blogspot.com Wade, good luck with those Vols this weekend.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M (Vegas favors OSU by 5.5, over/under 61.5)

Houston’s quarterback ripped Oklahoma State’s defense for 366 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Texas A&M lost last week to Arkansas, but A&M’s passing game was still effective. Oklahoma State has a mediocre pass rush and A&M QB Jarrod Johnson should have plenty of time to pick apart Oklahoma State’s defense. Don’t forget about Dez Bryant, OSU’s best receiver is suspended for the year for lying to the NCAA about something that wasn’t illegal. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State in an upset. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma State 30-29 with the twelfth man on their side.

The first look at this year’s Rob Rankings:

The methodology behind the rankings is a reflection of the offensive and defensive stats that directly correlate to wins combined with strength of schedule: Here is my top 25. These rankings will obviously shift as the season continues.

Rob Rankings Top 25: Reflecting the first five weeks of the season.

1. Alabama 5.51
2. Florida 7.43
3. Nebraska 10.38
4. USC 11.29
5. Texas 15.26
6. TCU 15.76
7. Boise State 17.07
8. Oklahoma 21.88
9. Virginia Tech 22.44
10. Ohio State 23.51
11. Kansas 24.44
12. Oregon 26.67
13. Cincinnati 28.73
14. South Florida 29.76
15. Tennessee 32.48
16. Stanford 32.65
17. Arizona 36.19
18. LSU 37.60
19. UCLA 37.77
20. Pittsburgh 39.49
21. Miami (FL) 39.66
22. South Carolina 39.88
23. Georgia 40.11
24. Penn State 40.20
25. West Virginia 40.28

Enjoy the games this weekend.

1 comment:

  1. I dont think you lost but one game dog...Great presentation..

    ReplyDelete