Week Five: College Football Picks
Greetings College Football Fans,
A top five team has tumbled every week this season. Let’s see what happens next.
Big Games:
Oklahoma @ Miami
Remember when these teams used to battle in the 80’s? If Miami had not lost to Virginia Tech last week this game would be a throwback with the same implications on the national championship spotlight that existed twenty years ago. That’s OK, because this game is still huge. You’ve got to love Miami QB Jacory Harris. Did you see the story on him during Game Day last Saturday? How can you root against him? If Miami can beat Oklahoma this Saturday, it will prove they are a contender once again. With a Miami win this weekend, they will show the character it takes to be champions (bouncing back from the VT loss). If Oklahoma can win they will get back into the national title chase. As I’m typing, ESPN just announced Sam Bradford will not play against Miami.
You were witness last week to what Virginia Tech’s defense did to Miami. I like Virginia Tech’s defense a lot, but I’d take Oklahoma’s defense anytime over VT’s. Virginia Tech’s defense held Miami’s running game to only 59 yards and brought significant on Jacory Harris all afternoon. If you think about the Miami games against Florida State and Georgia Tech, Harris had time. Against Virginia Tech, Harris was just 9-25 for only 150 yards and one pick. Oklahoma’s defense has a better pass rush than Virginia Tech’s. The Sooners have had 12 sacks in three games. They also lead the nation is tackles for a loss. Oklahoma’s defense also leads the nation in run defense only allowing 41 yards per game. Oklahoma wins on the road. Oklahoma wins 26-17.
USC @ California
We all want a college football playoff. Consider this a PAC-10 playoff game, because the loser will be out of the Rose Bowl race. California can’t seem to get out of the “we’re almost good”bucket. They were absolutely blown out against Oregon last week. Cal has a great opportunity to show the country they are better than almost good. Bottom line here, whoever loses this game can pack it up for the season.
USC’s offense hasn’t been this bad since pre Pete Carroll. Last week against Washington State USC put up big numbers. However, Cal is playing at home and their much better team than Washington State. The Golden Bears have one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the country. I think Cal will pick it up and beat USC this year. Cal wins 33-27. USC is done.
LSU @ Georgia
Who is the quietest team in the country? LSU is now ranked #5 in the country (very sneaky). I’ll say they sure don’t seem like a #5 team. LSU just barely squeaked past Mississippi State last week, holding them in a goal line stand to win the game. Remember the magic #5. One top five team has lost every week this season. Georgia is also finding ways to win games. It’s been a weird year for the Dawgs. Shoot outs against Arkansas and South Carolina and a last second field goal to beat Arizona State last week. Georgia has clearly rebounded from their first game against Oklahoma State, but they are incredibly inconsistent. Georgia really needs to win this game. The Dawgs following two games are on the road and then they travel to Jacksonville for the cocktail party against Florida.
Weird games like this come down to turnovers. LSU is fifth in the country in turnover ratio and only has three total turnovers this year. Georgia is 115th in turnover margin. LSU beats Georgia between the hedges. LSU wins 39-15.
Auburn @ Tennessee
Here is a social status game. Both teams want their social status back. Auburn is actually scoring points this year. The offense and defense both look good and new coach Gene Chizik is off to a great start. Auburn is much improved when you compare them to last year’s team. For example, last year Auburn only scored 207 points the entire season (17 points per game). Auburn’s competition so far this year hasn’t been awful. They have beaten Mississippi State, West Virginia and Louisiana Tech who blew out Hawaii last night. Let’s examine Tennessee…They played a good game against Florida, holding them to 23 points in a Tennessee loss. The Vol’s beat Ohio University (not Ohio State) and Western Kentucky. Almost forgot about Tennessee’s loss to an improved UCLA in Knoxville.
I asked my good friend Wade, (a diehard Tennessee fan) what Tennessee’s biggest challenge is this year and he explicitly said “QUARTERBACK”. Looking at Jonathan Crompton’s (UT QB) passing stats, he has thrown seven touchdowns and eight interceptions this year. On the bright side Tennessee’s running game is descent. However, it is going to be tough for Tennessee against a not perfect but competitive Auburn defense. Tennessee will have to rush for over 200 yards to make up for their inefficient passing game and Auburns defense isn’t that bad. Auburn wins a close one. Auburn wins 26-24.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas)
Do you remember the old Southwest Conference? That old conference consisted of all the Texas schools and Arkansas. This is an old Southwest Conference game. These team are just average, but this should be an entertaining game. These two team are the types that will beat an undefeated team and ruin their season while Arkansas and Texas A&M have nothing to play for. Both teams will probably make a bowl this year, but they are average at best. So why am I writing about them and wasting our time?, pure entertainment value, offense and nostalgia. Arkansas was blasted 35-7 last week against Alabama (my #1 team in the country). Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (Michigan transfer) is 6’7” and will play in the NFL in a few years. He can put up points and Arkansas’s defense can too (team can score at will on Arkansas). Did you know Texas A&M had the #1 offense in the country averaging 575 yards per game? Their defense so far has only given up 55 points in three games.
It takes eleven players to field a defense. However, Arkansas has only been fielding seven. The Razorbacks have no secondary at all. Arkansas’s other seven players are a little better and can apply a moderate pass rush, but Texas A&M QB Jarrod Johnson is mobile and an above average passer. Georgia QB Joe Cox lit up the Arkansas defense for over 50 points and Alabama QB Greg McElroy threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M will have a field day. Texas A&M wins 24-10.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
This game is not always on the radar, especially if you don’t live in the Midwest. IF you look at the history of this game it’s always a shootout. Not surprising since both teams are playing for the Paul Bunyan Axe every year. These two teams are tied for first in the Big Ten (along with four other teams). But they are the only teams tied for first in the Big Ten that are playing each other this week. Last week Minnesota won an impressive game against tricky Northwestern 35-24. This week’s game will be the first road game for Wisconsin this year. Wisconsin has won by vary narrow margins this year. They beat Fresno State in overtime, and beat both Northern Illinois and Michigan State by eight. Wisconsin has to look forward to playing Ohio State and Iowa the following two weeks after their game against Minnesota.
Wisconsin has a very strong running game with John Clay leading the way for the Badgers. Minnesota’s run defense only looks good against average running games. Wisconsin won’t need to rely only on the run against Minnesota. Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien will throw to many receivers. He doesn’t make many mistakes and leads the Big Ten in pass efficiency. Minnesota is vulnerable to the pass as their defense gave up 309 and 252 yards to Northwestern and Cal respectively. Wisconsin wins the Ax. Wisconsin wins 38-27.
Michigan @ Michigan State
As a diehard Wolverine fan, this game scares me. Michigan State has its back against the wall with a 1-3 record. The Spartans are supposed to be a good balanced football team this year. Mark Dantonio was supposed to have a breakout year as Michigan State’s coach. Michigan State lost to a better Wisconsin team last week, handed a victory to Notre Dame and literally gave the game away to Central Michigan. Now it’s Michigan’s tern to be given a gift by the Spartans. Not so fast my friend. Michigan is a few players and two years away from competing for the national championship. Last year Michigan State was competing for the Big ten championship while rival Michigan was in the cellar. Things seem doom and gloom for Michigan State this year, but if they can beat rival Michigan on Saturday life seems a little sunnier for the Spartans.
Michigan State has a defense that doesn’t do anything fancy. They don’t blitz or stunt very often. They tend to stay in a base defense and play very aggressively. Notre Dame had no problem running against the Spartans and Wisconsin put up 193 yards last week. If Michigan State can’t stop the Wolverines rushing attack the Michigan backfield will have a field day (QBs included). Wolverine QB Tate Forcier is banged up so Denard Robinson will get more snaps. The first play of his career at Michigan, Robinson ran for a 40 yard touchdown. Watch out for him against the Spartans this week. Michigan beats Michigan State 38-20. The Wolverines move to 5-0.
Quick Picks
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled against SEC teams this year. Vanderbilt was only able to put up 210 yards total offense against LSU and only 157 yards against Mississippi State. The Ole Miss defense will be tough against Vanderbilt rushing offense and they will put lots of pressure on Vandy’s QB Larry Smith.
Ole Miss wins 28-7.
South Florida @ Syracuse
South Florida took Florida State behind the woodshed last week. So far, South Florida’s defense has only allowed 27 points all season (in four games). Their defensive line led by George Selvie is disrupting opposing offenses before the play even gets started. South Florida wins 25-19.
Washington @ Notre Dame
USC and Stanford ran for 571 yards against Washington. I strongly assume Notre Dame’s game plan is the run the football. Notre Dame is at home and more talented than the improved Huskies. Notre Dame wins 24-14.
UCLA @ Stanford
Stanford has a great running back in Toby Gerhart. History shows that when Toby rushes for less than 100 yards Stanford loses. UCLA will shut him down. The Bruins win and stays undefeated. UCLA wins 23-21.
Oregon State @ Arizona State
Arizona State’s defense is the real deal. Last week in Athens, ASU held Georgia’s offense to just 20 points. Arizona State leads the nation in turnover margin, which helps their struggling offense. Arizona State beats Oregon State 12-3.
Enjoy all the games this week. Until next week…..
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
College Football: Freaky Week Four
There is something to be said about trusting your initial instincts. The games last week crushed me. I can’t tell you how I agenized over picks and changed winner to losers at the last minute. This week I’m going to trust my initial instincts. Let’s see what happens…..
Games of the Week:
Miami @ Virginia Tech
This is could be the Coastal Division championship game. Miami has looked tremendous with impressive wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. Miami has the opportunity to beat three straight ACC ranked teams if they can beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. Miami plays Oklahoma next week and if they go into that game 3-0 and beat Oklahoma, watch out!! Virginia Tech just barely beat Nebraska last week on the last play of the game escaping a 1-2 start. Last week Nebraska held Virginia Tech’s offense to almost nothing until the last drive of the game. The only team Virginia tech has look really good against is Marshall (given they have played Alabama & Nebraska).
Here goes that instinct thing (oh boy). Virginia Tech is clearly going to have to put massive pressure on Miami QB Jacory Harris. No one has been able to do this yet. (Dr. Lou is on TV right now)..
I think Jacory Harris will struggle against Virginia Tech’s defense. Virginia Tech’s secondary is allowing only 164 yards per game and has only allowed one touchdown pass all season. Virginia Tech does not lose in Lane Stadium, so my instincts are yelling Virginia Tech in the upset. Virginia Tech wins 27-19.
Texas Tech @ Houston
If you play fantasy college football you definitely have to watch this game. Houston’s offensive coordinator (Dana Holgorsen) used to work for Texas Tech’s head coach Mike Leach. This game will be nothing but offense.
Houston has no pass rush what so ever. If they can’t put pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will dissect and exploit Houston’s defense. Taylor Potts high school teammate, wide receiver Lyle Leong has replaced NFL hold out receiver Michael Crabtree as the go to receiver. Texas Tech played well against Texas and could have beaten them in Austin. I’m confident that Texas Tech can beat Houston in Houston. Texas Tech wins in a shootout 57-40.
Iowa @ Penn State
You may recall that Penn State’s only loss last year (until they played USC in the Rose Bowl) came on a last second field goal to Iowa. Iowa is not supposed to beat Penn State on a last second field goal, at least based on recruiting class rankings. However, Iowa wins its fair share of games against Penn State. Iowa seem to have their number.
Defenses have put a tremendous amount of pressure on Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi. I mean it’s been easy for other teams. Can Iowa fight off the pass rush that Penn State will put on Iowa? I don’t think this game will even be close. Penn State wins 34-15.
California @ Oregon
So far Cal is meeting the media’s expectations. The winner of this game will get a great jump on the rest of the PAC-10, especially with USC’s loss to Washington last week.
Oregon’s defense is allowing 30 points a game so far this year. Their defense has only gotten to the opposing quarterback twice all this season. Cal will clearly exploit Oregon’s defense. Cal’s QB Kevin Riley is playing better than expected this year. The Bears running game is incredible with the best (literally) running back in the country in Jahvid Best (my Heisman choice so far). Both teams will have to play with balanced offensives, however Oregon is very run heavy and not a very efficient passing team (particularly playing from behind). Even though this game is in Oregon (very loud stadium) Cal wins 41-21.
Arizona State @ Georgia
My gut is tingling……Uh Oh. Georgia’s offense hasn’t been this productive since about 2004. The Dawgs have put up a combined 93 points against Arkansas and South Carolina. However, Georgia’s defense could use some work. Georgia is an exciting team to watch as they have rebounded nicely from their season opening loss to Oklahoma State. They are slowly climbing up in the rankings. Arizona State is also playing great football. They just haven’t played anyone at all this year (Idaho State & Louisiana-Monroe).
Remember, Georgia QB Joe Cox had the flu against Oklahoma State and had to be flown in on a private jet as a game time decision. Now that he is feeling better, he’s thrown seven touchdown passes in the last two games. Georgia also features two stud receivers in AJ Green and Michael Moore. My gut isn’t tingling enough to pick an upset, but I think Arizona State will make it close. Georgia wins 26-21.
Washington State @ USC
Why did I list this game under, games of the week? If you want to see perfect offensive and defensive execution check this game out. Basically, USC’s season is over. The 16-13 loss last week to Washington ended any hopes of a national championship (lottery odds at this point). While USC was losing to Washington, Washington State was rallying from behind to beat SMU. How many times can you recall WSU celebrating while USC is sulking in the same week?
Reality will set back in for both teams soon. USC will be angry this week. I’m one to pick upsets, but there is no way Washington State beats USC this week. I mean no way. USC wins the first half 35-0. If you want to see perfect football, from USC this week tune in to this game. This game will look like the Saints offense and Steelers defense versus not the Lions, but Washington State. USC sins 51-7 taking it easy in the second half.
Other Good Games: The Quick Picks
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech at home is a great match up for the much improved but this year untested Tar Heels. Georgia Tech gets back to their winning ways. Georgia Tech wins 33-18.
South Florida @ Florida State: South Florida starts a freshman quarterback this week in Tallahassee. FSU’s strong run defense will force the young QB to throw. FSU offense looked unstoppable last week against BYU. Florida State wins 25-17.
Wake Forest @ Boston College: A week ago Boston College only threw for 25 yards on 21 attempts. Wake Forest stacks the box against BCs ground attack. Wake Forest QB Ryan Skinner looks great. Wake Forest wins on the road 21-14.
Texas Christian @ Clemson: TCU is not used to this kind of speed. Clemson should have beat Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. Clemson’s defense has some much more speed than what TCH has seen this year. Clemson running back CJ Spiller will get loose against TCU from the backfield and on special teams. Clemson squeaks past a talented but out matched TCU team 28-25.
Fresno State @ Cincinnati: Fresno State’s defense is suspect against the run. Watch Cincinnati running backs Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey. Cincinnati wins 37-12.
Missouri @ Nevada: Nevada’s defense has not created a turnover yet this year. Nevada’s offense has given up four fumbles and four interceptions (the nation’s worst turnover ratio). Missouri puts up almost 500 yards of total offense. Missouri wins 36-17.
Southern Mississippi @ Kansas: This is an interesting game. Kansas wins a close one 31-29.
Indiana @ Michigan: Michigan is 3rd in the nation in rushing, averaging 271 yards per game. Michigan should control field position with their improved defensive and special teams. However, I think this game may be closer than Vegas suggests. Michigan wins homecoming 36-24.
Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin has played in close games this season, but their run defense is excellent. Wisconsin is huge and plays a physician style of football. Wisconsin will not lose to Michigan State. Wisconsin wins 43-38.
Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State’s defense is tough. They actually played a brilliant game against USC. Ohio State shuts down the Juice. The Buckeyes win 33-14.
Purdue @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defensive backs are awful. Purdue is an effective passing team and QB Joey Elliott will go to town. Purdue wins 23-14.
Arizona @ Oregon State: Oregon State has two sacks all season. Arizona QB Nick Foles Shouldn’t be to rushed. Arizona’s defense has only given up only two touchdown passes (when the games were already over) all year. This game will resemble the old “Dessert Storm” Arizona defenses against Oregon State. Arizona wins 31-24.
Washington @ Stanford: Can you say LET DOWN? Stanford is much improved with an impressive offense. The Cardinal (not Cardinals) have a great running back in Toby Gerhart and quarterback Andrew Luck. Gerhard is averaging more than 100 yards per game and Luck is getting better every week. Stanford wins 34-18.
LSU @ Mississippi State: Mississippi State can’t score enough points to keep up with LSU. LSU’s defense isn’t as intimidating as those teams a few years ago, but they are still very good. LSU just needs to play conservative and control the ball. No problem, LSU wins 51-26.
Arkansas @ Alabama: It will be a long day for Arkansas’s defense. Alabama’s rushing offense will go to town against a weak Arkansas front seven. Alabama will put up at least 250 yards rushing. Alabama will have a big game passing too. Alabama wins big 39-3.
Florida @ Kentucky: Florida will get its passing game in line this week. Louisville lit up Kentucky on the deep ball. Florida will open things up against Kentucky in preparation for the tougher games in the SEC. Florida’s offense is ranked second in the nation in rushing averaging 289 yards per game. Florida wins easily 37-7.
If I have more time next week, I will start analyzing data and sharing some interesting statistics and their implications on the game.
Enjoy your weekend!
There is something to be said about trusting your initial instincts. The games last week crushed me. I can’t tell you how I agenized over picks and changed winner to losers at the last minute. This week I’m going to trust my initial instincts. Let’s see what happens…..
Games of the Week:
Miami @ Virginia Tech
This is could be the Coastal Division championship game. Miami has looked tremendous with impressive wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. Miami has the opportunity to beat three straight ACC ranked teams if they can beat Virginia Tech on Saturday. Miami plays Oklahoma next week and if they go into that game 3-0 and beat Oklahoma, watch out!! Virginia Tech just barely beat Nebraska last week on the last play of the game escaping a 1-2 start. Last week Nebraska held Virginia Tech’s offense to almost nothing until the last drive of the game. The only team Virginia tech has look really good against is Marshall (given they have played Alabama & Nebraska).
Here goes that instinct thing (oh boy). Virginia Tech is clearly going to have to put massive pressure on Miami QB Jacory Harris. No one has been able to do this yet. (Dr. Lou is on TV right now)..
I think Jacory Harris will struggle against Virginia Tech’s defense. Virginia Tech’s secondary is allowing only 164 yards per game and has only allowed one touchdown pass all season. Virginia Tech does not lose in Lane Stadium, so my instincts are yelling Virginia Tech in the upset. Virginia Tech wins 27-19.
Texas Tech @ Houston
If you play fantasy college football you definitely have to watch this game. Houston’s offensive coordinator (Dana Holgorsen) used to work for Texas Tech’s head coach Mike Leach. This game will be nothing but offense.
Houston has no pass rush what so ever. If they can’t put pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will dissect and exploit Houston’s defense. Taylor Potts high school teammate, wide receiver Lyle Leong has replaced NFL hold out receiver Michael Crabtree as the go to receiver. Texas Tech played well against Texas and could have beaten them in Austin. I’m confident that Texas Tech can beat Houston in Houston. Texas Tech wins in a shootout 57-40.
Iowa @ Penn State
You may recall that Penn State’s only loss last year (until they played USC in the Rose Bowl) came on a last second field goal to Iowa. Iowa is not supposed to beat Penn State on a last second field goal, at least based on recruiting class rankings. However, Iowa wins its fair share of games against Penn State. Iowa seem to have their number.
Defenses have put a tremendous amount of pressure on Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi. I mean it’s been easy for other teams. Can Iowa fight off the pass rush that Penn State will put on Iowa? I don’t think this game will even be close. Penn State wins 34-15.
California @ Oregon
So far Cal is meeting the media’s expectations. The winner of this game will get a great jump on the rest of the PAC-10, especially with USC’s loss to Washington last week.
Oregon’s defense is allowing 30 points a game so far this year. Their defense has only gotten to the opposing quarterback twice all this season. Cal will clearly exploit Oregon’s defense. Cal’s QB Kevin Riley is playing better than expected this year. The Bears running game is incredible with the best (literally) running back in the country in Jahvid Best (my Heisman choice so far). Both teams will have to play with balanced offensives, however Oregon is very run heavy and not a very efficient passing team (particularly playing from behind). Even though this game is in Oregon (very loud stadium) Cal wins 41-21.
Arizona State @ Georgia
My gut is tingling……Uh Oh. Georgia’s offense hasn’t been this productive since about 2004. The Dawgs have put up a combined 93 points against Arkansas and South Carolina. However, Georgia’s defense could use some work. Georgia is an exciting team to watch as they have rebounded nicely from their season opening loss to Oklahoma State. They are slowly climbing up in the rankings. Arizona State is also playing great football. They just haven’t played anyone at all this year (Idaho State & Louisiana-Monroe).
Remember, Georgia QB Joe Cox had the flu against Oklahoma State and had to be flown in on a private jet as a game time decision. Now that he is feeling better, he’s thrown seven touchdown passes in the last two games. Georgia also features two stud receivers in AJ Green and Michael Moore. My gut isn’t tingling enough to pick an upset, but I think Arizona State will make it close. Georgia wins 26-21.
Washington State @ USC
Why did I list this game under, games of the week? If you want to see perfect offensive and defensive execution check this game out. Basically, USC’s season is over. The 16-13 loss last week to Washington ended any hopes of a national championship (lottery odds at this point). While USC was losing to Washington, Washington State was rallying from behind to beat SMU. How many times can you recall WSU celebrating while USC is sulking in the same week?
Reality will set back in for both teams soon. USC will be angry this week. I’m one to pick upsets, but there is no way Washington State beats USC this week. I mean no way. USC wins the first half 35-0. If you want to see perfect football, from USC this week tune in to this game. This game will look like the Saints offense and Steelers defense versus not the Lions, but Washington State. USC sins 51-7 taking it easy in the second half.
Other Good Games: The Quick Picks
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech at home is a great match up for the much improved but this year untested Tar Heels. Georgia Tech gets back to their winning ways. Georgia Tech wins 33-18.
South Florida @ Florida State: South Florida starts a freshman quarterback this week in Tallahassee. FSU’s strong run defense will force the young QB to throw. FSU offense looked unstoppable last week against BYU. Florida State wins 25-17.
Wake Forest @ Boston College: A week ago Boston College only threw for 25 yards on 21 attempts. Wake Forest stacks the box against BCs ground attack. Wake Forest QB Ryan Skinner looks great. Wake Forest wins on the road 21-14.
Texas Christian @ Clemson: TCU is not used to this kind of speed. Clemson should have beat Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. Clemson’s defense has some much more speed than what TCH has seen this year. Clemson running back CJ Spiller will get loose against TCU from the backfield and on special teams. Clemson squeaks past a talented but out matched TCU team 28-25.
Fresno State @ Cincinnati: Fresno State’s defense is suspect against the run. Watch Cincinnati running backs Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey. Cincinnati wins 37-12.
Missouri @ Nevada: Nevada’s defense has not created a turnover yet this year. Nevada’s offense has given up four fumbles and four interceptions (the nation’s worst turnover ratio). Missouri puts up almost 500 yards of total offense. Missouri wins 36-17.
Southern Mississippi @ Kansas: This is an interesting game. Kansas wins a close one 31-29.
Indiana @ Michigan: Michigan is 3rd in the nation in rushing, averaging 271 yards per game. Michigan should control field position with their improved defensive and special teams. However, I think this game may be closer than Vegas suggests. Michigan wins homecoming 36-24.
Michigan State @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin has played in close games this season, but their run defense is excellent. Wisconsin is huge and plays a physician style of football. Wisconsin will not lose to Michigan State. Wisconsin wins 43-38.
Illinois @ Ohio State: Ohio State’s defense is tough. They actually played a brilliant game against USC. Ohio State shuts down the Juice. The Buckeyes win 33-14.
Purdue @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defensive backs are awful. Purdue is an effective passing team and QB Joey Elliott will go to town. Purdue wins 23-14.
Arizona @ Oregon State: Oregon State has two sacks all season. Arizona QB Nick Foles Shouldn’t be to rushed. Arizona’s defense has only given up only two touchdown passes (when the games were already over) all year. This game will resemble the old “Dessert Storm” Arizona defenses against Oregon State. Arizona wins 31-24.
Washington @ Stanford: Can you say LET DOWN? Stanford is much improved with an impressive offense. The Cardinal (not Cardinals) have a great running back in Toby Gerhart and quarterback Andrew Luck. Gerhard is averaging more than 100 yards per game and Luck is getting better every week. Stanford wins 34-18.
LSU @ Mississippi State: Mississippi State can’t score enough points to keep up with LSU. LSU’s defense isn’t as intimidating as those teams a few years ago, but they are still very good. LSU just needs to play conservative and control the ball. No problem, LSU wins 51-26.
Arkansas @ Alabama: It will be a long day for Arkansas’s defense. Alabama’s rushing offense will go to town against a weak Arkansas front seven. Alabama will put up at least 250 yards rushing. Alabama will have a big game passing too. Alabama wins big 39-3.
Florida @ Kentucky: Florida will get its passing game in line this week. Louisville lit up Kentucky on the deep ball. Florida will open things up against Kentucky in preparation for the tougher games in the SEC. Florida’s offense is ranked second in the nation in rushing averaging 289 yards per game. Florida wins easily 37-7.
If I have more time next week, I will start analyzing data and sharing some interesting statistics and their implications on the game.
Enjoy your weekend!
Friday, September 18, 2009
Notorious Week Three:
Greetings College Football Fans,
There are a ton of great college football games this weekend. Let's not waste time.
I'm typing this with my Black Berry so please pardon any typos.
Here we go….
SEC:
Tennessee @ Florida
Here is a huge challenge for a young Lane Kiffin. He has been agitating urban Meyer since the day he took the job at Tennessee. It seems like every press conference Kiffin is talking about Urban Meyer or the Gators. He accused Meyer of recruiting violations and suggested Tennessee will beat Florida at the swamp while singing “Rocky Top”. If Lane Kiffin weren’t talking trash, this is a rivalry game and Florida will be ready anyway. Florida needs to make a statement anyway since they really haven’t played anyone this season. However, Tennessee is still a good football team with enough talent to make this a game. How crazy would it be if Tennessee actually beat Florida? No one in America seems to think this could happen.
Two weeks ago Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton threw five touchdown passes and the running game racked up almost 400 yards against Western Kentucky. Tennessee looked like it was back in contention. Last week UCLA came to Knoxville and shut down all offensive production. The problem here is that Florida’s defense is so much better than UCLA’s. Also, in a rivalry game like this Florida’s defense will be fired up and emotional. Florida’s defense (entire team for that matter) is rested. They have had no competition in the first two games (spring ball was tougher). Watch out for the #1 team in the country. Florida finally has a game to play and they have been waiting for this one. I haven’t even mentioned Tim Tebow and the offense. Florida wins this game but not a compete blowout. I like that Tennessee defense. Florida 31-7.
Georgia @ Arkansas
Arkansas plans on making things hard on the Dawgs of Georgia this Saturday. This is why Bobby Petrino quit the Atlanta Falcons job. He wants to coach another high powered offense in the college football world. Arkansas started that high powered offense against Missouri State where the Razorbacks rolled up 480 passing yards and almost 600 yards total offense. However, Georgia is not Missouri State. But Georgia has struggled on defense so far this year. If Georgia’s defense plays like it did last week, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett could light up the scoreboard and show the SEC what he is capable of. For Georgia, Arizona State and LSU loom on the schedule the following two week and I’m sure Mark Richt is working hard to get the Dawgs back on track or the season could spell disaster. These two teams don’t have the history that other SEC games have, but Arkansas has not beaten Georgia since 1993.
Last week Georgia took advantage of every opportunity to beat South Carolina and still barely won. If Georgia had not returned a kickoff for a touchdown or had the long touchdown from scrimmage by Branden Smith, Georgia would have probably lost to South Carolina. Last week Georgia barely survived as the defense held for a last second defensive stand. Georgia really has not been in a high powered offensive shootout (not against Oklahoma State either). Arkansas will win if Ryan Mallette gets his rhythm. If that happens the Dawgs will be 1-2 as Arizona State and LSU come to Georgia the following two weeks. Arkansas wins 37-34.
The Big -12
Texas Tech @ Texas
This game is my personal favorite this week. We’ll call it the game of the week. Last year Texas only lost one game all season. Can you name the team? You got it…Texas Tech. The game was dramatic as Michael Crabtree caught a last second pass to beat the Longhorns. The loss crushed Texas in the BCS rankings and Oklahoma moved ahead and eventually played for the National Championship (but Texas beat Oklahoma). Texas Tech is not considered to be a major threat in the Big-12 this year. They are in a “rebuilding” year. Texas Tech, so far this year has only passed for 918 yards in two games. It’s seems like the Red Raiders are back filling for those lost upper classmen nicely. This year Oklahoma State is supposed to be the Texas Tech of last year (the sleeper). Since Oklahoma State lost to Houston last week and Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford’s shoulder injury, the Big-12 landscape has changed. With a win, Colt McCoy and the Longhorns can begin to position themselves nicely for the Heisman and BCS Championship Game respectively is they beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can go from the perception of “rebuilding” to national contender if they beat Texas.
Can Texas generate the pass rush to disrupt Texas Tech’s passing game? This year Texas has good defensive backs, but not great ones like they have had in the past. If Texas can’t get any pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will pick apart the Longhorns defense all night. Texas Tech winning at Texas is a tall order, but it could happen. Let’s just see if Texas Tech is “rebuilding” this year. Texas Tech wins 39-36.
The WAC
Boise State @ Fresno State
Don’t sleep on this game. This is my second favorite game of the week. Fresno State will play anyone anywhere and play well. Fresno State can match the athletes of Boise State and if they play well at home this could be an upset. Boise State is arguably the best coached football team in the country. They have a very efficient offense, a defense that doesn’t make mistakes and special teams that make big plays. Fresno State had Wisconsin on the ropes in Madison in a double overtime loss to the Badgers. Again, don’t sleep on this game. These are the best two teams in the WAC by far. And they can beat any team in the country.
The bottom line in this game is that Fresno State makes mistakes and Boise State does not. Fresno State QB Ryan Colburn has thrown four interceptions in his first two games. If he throws one pick against Boise State that will be the difference in winning or losing. Boise State has a better secondary than Wisconsin and they will lock down the Fresno State receivers. Boise State will also be able to put enough pressure on Colburn to force him out of his game. Boise State wins 34-16.
Cross Conference Games
Florida State @ BYU
Here is another high profile game for BYU. If they can pull it off, the entire country will be believers and it will be more than just Sam Bradford getting hurt in the Oklahoma game. Last week BYU traveled to New Orleans and beat Tulane 54-3 and clearly avoided an Oklahoma emotional letdown. Florida State on the other hand, just barely beat Jacksonville State last week and lost an instant classic to Miami the week before (in five days). Yes, I did say Jacksonville State earlier in the last sentence. Maybe Florida State needs a vacation or a change of scenery. How about a road trip to Utah?
Florida State seems like an emotionally wounded program. They could have lost to Jacksonville State and be 0-2. Florida State is used to playing at sea level. BYU is in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains (the air is thin up there). BYU is just starting to get in a rhythm and will use a hurry-up offense to tire out the Noles as they attempt to catch their breath and stay focused. We all know BYU likes to pass the football and we also know what Miami did to Florida State, Miami QB Jacory Harris threw for 386 yards.
This will be a tough game for Florida State. BYU wins 48-24.
Nebraska @ Virginia Tech
Last year Virginia Tech and QB Tyrod Taylor rolled into Lincoln and thrashed the Cornhuskers 35-20. Nebraska and their new head coach were still getting to know each other. Nebraska is clearly playing with more confidence this year. Nebraska is more focused than they have been in the past. The Cornhuskers will be ready for the Big-12 this year. But first….Virginia Tech. The ACC and Virginia Tech need a big non-conference win. It would help Virginia Tech regain the perception of national strength after losing to Alabama in the first game. Virginia tech has a shot at a BSC bowl if they win the ACC or not lose any more games.
Nebraska is a tough team to play in a non-conference game. I take my hat off to Virginia Tech for scheduling Alabama and Nebraska in the same season. Nebraska still sports those ridiculously big offensive and defensive linemen. The Cornhuskers are better than they were last year and still just as physical as they have been in their heyday. Check out Nebraska’s big nose tackle Ndamukong Suh. He anchors Nebraska’s tough defensive line and will help shut down Virginia Tech’s running game. Nebraska’s secondary is fast and make good open field tackles. Virginia Tech’s offensive line has allowed eight sacks this year and they will be forced to pass because of Nebraska’s tough run defense. Nebraska wins in a tough battle 24-22.
West Virginia @ Auburn
West Virginia is averaging double digit victories so far this season. So has Auburn…Will the real team please stand up? This game will provide clarity regarding the quality of both teams. How tough is the Big East this year? West Virginia will travel for the first time this year. The winner of this game will be ranked in the top 25.
West Virginia senior QB Jarrett Brown is a big strong guy that can run through tackles and effectively pass the ball. He is about the same size as Tim Tebow. Last week against a respectable East Carolina Brown ran for 73 yards and threw for four touchdowns. West Virginia wins a challenging road game 34-24.
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
This is almost the matchup of the week. If both Notre Dame and Michigan State hadn’t lost last second games last week they would both be undefeated. Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week by allowing them to recover an onside kick. Michigan State also gave Central Michigan a second shot at a game winning field goal do to a penalty. The odds of Michigan State losing that game the way they did were like Central Michigan winning the lottery. Whoever loses this game will be scrambling for the remainder of the season. Both of these teams were ranked at the start of the season. One team will go disappointingly in the wrong direction after this weekend’s game. Michigan State can at least still have BSC aspirations as they can start their season over when they hit the Big-10 schedule. Any respectable team Notre Dame plays is a conference game since they are independent. Notre Dame is a lot better than they have been in the last few years, but Michigan State has won three out of four in the Charlie Weis era. All the sports writers think Notre Dame is a BCS Bowl team. This will be their chance to prove it. With an easier schedule than ND has had in the past, they are running out of teams to prove it against.
Notre Dame has a balanced offense. If Michigan State puts pressure on Clausen, Notre Dame can run the football with Armando Allen who rushed for 139 yards last week against Michigan. Notre Dame wins big 38-10.
Other Interesting Games: The Quick Picks
USC @ Washington: Washington is getting better but USC is just too good. USC wins 38-6.
California @ Minnesota: Upset alert. Cal has a long trip to Minnesota. Both teams are undefeated. Minnesota shocks Cal 19-16.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma: The Sooners are hobbled without their Heisman Trophy winner. Tulsa is an explosive football team. Oklahoma wins 34-21.
Ohio State @ Toledo: I can’t believe Ohio State is playing at Toledo. At Toledo? Toledo beat Colorado at Toledo. Ohio State is not Colorado, but it’s still a competitive game. Ohio State wins 33-27.
Utah @ Oregon: Oregon lost their best running back with the infamous punch. They also have a new coach. Utah wins 26-10.
Cincinnati @ Oregon State: Cincinnati is very good. Oregon State beat the USC Trojans last year. Oregon State makes a statement 35-6.
Connecticut @ Baylor: UConn travels to Baylor. Quietly, Baylor has one of the best QBs in the country and the team is much better. Baylor wins 24-10.
Arizona @ Iowa: Two undefeated teams. Iowa wins big at home 30-0.
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan: Can Michigan’s former defensive coordinator Ron English beat the Wolverines? Anything can happen. However, Tate Forcier and company are getting better every week.
Michigan wins 45-21.
Enjoy the college football weekend.
Greetings College Football Fans,
There are a ton of great college football games this weekend. Let's not waste time.
I'm typing this with my Black Berry so please pardon any typos.
Here we go….
SEC:
Tennessee @ Florida
Here is a huge challenge for a young Lane Kiffin. He has been agitating urban Meyer since the day he took the job at Tennessee. It seems like every press conference Kiffin is talking about Urban Meyer or the Gators. He accused Meyer of recruiting violations and suggested Tennessee will beat Florida at the swamp while singing “Rocky Top”. If Lane Kiffin weren’t talking trash, this is a rivalry game and Florida will be ready anyway. Florida needs to make a statement anyway since they really haven’t played anyone this season. However, Tennessee is still a good football team with enough talent to make this a game. How crazy would it be if Tennessee actually beat Florida? No one in America seems to think this could happen.
Two weeks ago Tennessee QB Jonathan Crompton threw five touchdown passes and the running game racked up almost 400 yards against Western Kentucky. Tennessee looked like it was back in contention. Last week UCLA came to Knoxville and shut down all offensive production. The problem here is that Florida’s defense is so much better than UCLA’s. Also, in a rivalry game like this Florida’s defense will be fired up and emotional. Florida’s defense (entire team for that matter) is rested. They have had no competition in the first two games (spring ball was tougher). Watch out for the #1 team in the country. Florida finally has a game to play and they have been waiting for this one. I haven’t even mentioned Tim Tebow and the offense. Florida wins this game but not a compete blowout. I like that Tennessee defense. Florida 31-7.
Georgia @ Arkansas
Arkansas plans on making things hard on the Dawgs of Georgia this Saturday. This is why Bobby Petrino quit the Atlanta Falcons job. He wants to coach another high powered offense in the college football world. Arkansas started that high powered offense against Missouri State where the Razorbacks rolled up 480 passing yards and almost 600 yards total offense. However, Georgia is not Missouri State. But Georgia has struggled on defense so far this year. If Georgia’s defense plays like it did last week, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett could light up the scoreboard and show the SEC what he is capable of. For Georgia, Arizona State and LSU loom on the schedule the following two week and I’m sure Mark Richt is working hard to get the Dawgs back on track or the season could spell disaster. These two teams don’t have the history that other SEC games have, but Arkansas has not beaten Georgia since 1993.
Last week Georgia took advantage of every opportunity to beat South Carolina and still barely won. If Georgia had not returned a kickoff for a touchdown or had the long touchdown from scrimmage by Branden Smith, Georgia would have probably lost to South Carolina. Last week Georgia barely survived as the defense held for a last second defensive stand. Georgia really has not been in a high powered offensive shootout (not against Oklahoma State either). Arkansas will win if Ryan Mallette gets his rhythm. If that happens the Dawgs will be 1-2 as Arizona State and LSU come to Georgia the following two weeks. Arkansas wins 37-34.
The Big -12
Texas Tech @ Texas
This game is my personal favorite this week. We’ll call it the game of the week. Last year Texas only lost one game all season. Can you name the team? You got it…Texas Tech. The game was dramatic as Michael Crabtree caught a last second pass to beat the Longhorns. The loss crushed Texas in the BCS rankings and Oklahoma moved ahead and eventually played for the National Championship (but Texas beat Oklahoma). Texas Tech is not considered to be a major threat in the Big-12 this year. They are in a “rebuilding” year. Texas Tech, so far this year has only passed for 918 yards in two games. It’s seems like the Red Raiders are back filling for those lost upper classmen nicely. This year Oklahoma State is supposed to be the Texas Tech of last year (the sleeper). Since Oklahoma State lost to Houston last week and Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford’s shoulder injury, the Big-12 landscape has changed. With a win, Colt McCoy and the Longhorns can begin to position themselves nicely for the Heisman and BCS Championship Game respectively is they beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can go from the perception of “rebuilding” to national contender if they beat Texas.
Can Texas generate the pass rush to disrupt Texas Tech’s passing game? This year Texas has good defensive backs, but not great ones like they have had in the past. If Texas can’t get any pressure on Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts, he will pick apart the Longhorns defense all night. Texas Tech winning at Texas is a tall order, but it could happen. Let’s just see if Texas Tech is “rebuilding” this year. Texas Tech wins 39-36.
The WAC
Boise State @ Fresno State
Don’t sleep on this game. This is my second favorite game of the week. Fresno State will play anyone anywhere and play well. Fresno State can match the athletes of Boise State and if they play well at home this could be an upset. Boise State is arguably the best coached football team in the country. They have a very efficient offense, a defense that doesn’t make mistakes and special teams that make big plays. Fresno State had Wisconsin on the ropes in Madison in a double overtime loss to the Badgers. Again, don’t sleep on this game. These are the best two teams in the WAC by far. And they can beat any team in the country.
The bottom line in this game is that Fresno State makes mistakes and Boise State does not. Fresno State QB Ryan Colburn has thrown four interceptions in his first two games. If he throws one pick against Boise State that will be the difference in winning or losing. Boise State has a better secondary than Wisconsin and they will lock down the Fresno State receivers. Boise State will also be able to put enough pressure on Colburn to force him out of his game. Boise State wins 34-16.
Cross Conference Games
Florida State @ BYU
Here is another high profile game for BYU. If they can pull it off, the entire country will be believers and it will be more than just Sam Bradford getting hurt in the Oklahoma game. Last week BYU traveled to New Orleans and beat Tulane 54-3 and clearly avoided an Oklahoma emotional letdown. Florida State on the other hand, just barely beat Jacksonville State last week and lost an instant classic to Miami the week before (in five days). Yes, I did say Jacksonville State earlier in the last sentence. Maybe Florida State needs a vacation or a change of scenery. How about a road trip to Utah?
Florida State seems like an emotionally wounded program. They could have lost to Jacksonville State and be 0-2. Florida State is used to playing at sea level. BYU is in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains (the air is thin up there). BYU is just starting to get in a rhythm and will use a hurry-up offense to tire out the Noles as they attempt to catch their breath and stay focused. We all know BYU likes to pass the football and we also know what Miami did to Florida State, Miami QB Jacory Harris threw for 386 yards.
This will be a tough game for Florida State. BYU wins 48-24.
Nebraska @ Virginia Tech
Last year Virginia Tech and QB Tyrod Taylor rolled into Lincoln and thrashed the Cornhuskers 35-20. Nebraska and their new head coach were still getting to know each other. Nebraska is clearly playing with more confidence this year. Nebraska is more focused than they have been in the past. The Cornhuskers will be ready for the Big-12 this year. But first….Virginia Tech. The ACC and Virginia Tech need a big non-conference win. It would help Virginia Tech regain the perception of national strength after losing to Alabama in the first game. Virginia tech has a shot at a BSC bowl if they win the ACC or not lose any more games.
Nebraska is a tough team to play in a non-conference game. I take my hat off to Virginia Tech for scheduling Alabama and Nebraska in the same season. Nebraska still sports those ridiculously big offensive and defensive linemen. The Cornhuskers are better than they were last year and still just as physical as they have been in their heyday. Check out Nebraska’s big nose tackle Ndamukong Suh. He anchors Nebraska’s tough defensive line and will help shut down Virginia Tech’s running game. Nebraska’s secondary is fast and make good open field tackles. Virginia Tech’s offensive line has allowed eight sacks this year and they will be forced to pass because of Nebraska’s tough run defense. Nebraska wins in a tough battle 24-22.
West Virginia @ Auburn
West Virginia is averaging double digit victories so far this season. So has Auburn…Will the real team please stand up? This game will provide clarity regarding the quality of both teams. How tough is the Big East this year? West Virginia will travel for the first time this year. The winner of this game will be ranked in the top 25.
West Virginia senior QB Jarrett Brown is a big strong guy that can run through tackles and effectively pass the ball. He is about the same size as Tim Tebow. Last week against a respectable East Carolina Brown ran for 73 yards and threw for four touchdowns. West Virginia wins a challenging road game 34-24.
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
This is almost the matchup of the week. If both Notre Dame and Michigan State hadn’t lost last second games last week they would both be undefeated. Michigan State lost to Central Michigan last week by allowing them to recover an onside kick. Michigan State also gave Central Michigan a second shot at a game winning field goal do to a penalty. The odds of Michigan State losing that game the way they did were like Central Michigan winning the lottery. Whoever loses this game will be scrambling for the remainder of the season. Both of these teams were ranked at the start of the season. One team will go disappointingly in the wrong direction after this weekend’s game. Michigan State can at least still have BSC aspirations as they can start their season over when they hit the Big-10 schedule. Any respectable team Notre Dame plays is a conference game since they are independent. Notre Dame is a lot better than they have been in the last few years, but Michigan State has won three out of four in the Charlie Weis era. All the sports writers think Notre Dame is a BCS Bowl team. This will be their chance to prove it. With an easier schedule than ND has had in the past, they are running out of teams to prove it against.
Notre Dame has a balanced offense. If Michigan State puts pressure on Clausen, Notre Dame can run the football with Armando Allen who rushed for 139 yards last week against Michigan. Notre Dame wins big 38-10.
Other Interesting Games: The Quick Picks
USC @ Washington: Washington is getting better but USC is just too good. USC wins 38-6.
California @ Minnesota: Upset alert. Cal has a long trip to Minnesota. Both teams are undefeated. Minnesota shocks Cal 19-16.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma: The Sooners are hobbled without their Heisman Trophy winner. Tulsa is an explosive football team. Oklahoma wins 34-21.
Ohio State @ Toledo: I can’t believe Ohio State is playing at Toledo. At Toledo? Toledo beat Colorado at Toledo. Ohio State is not Colorado, but it’s still a competitive game. Ohio State wins 33-27.
Utah @ Oregon: Oregon lost their best running back with the infamous punch. They also have a new coach. Utah wins 26-10.
Cincinnati @ Oregon State: Cincinnati is very good. Oregon State beat the USC Trojans last year. Oregon State makes a statement 35-6.
Connecticut @ Baylor: UConn travels to Baylor. Quietly, Baylor has one of the best QBs in the country and the team is much better. Baylor wins 24-10.
Arizona @ Iowa: Two undefeated teams. Iowa wins big at home 30-0.
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan: Can Michigan’s former defensive coordinator Ron English beat the Wolverines? Anything can happen. However, Tate Forcier and company are getting better every week.
Michigan wins 45-21.
Enjoy the college football weekend.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Wild Week Two
Wild Week Two:
Greetings College Football Fans,
How about that first week of college football? Lets dive right into what we think will happen this week.
This week’s BIG games:
USC @ Ohio State
Ohio State has finally has a chance to get the non-conference ranked opponent monkey off its back. However, USC owns the Big 10, and everyone outside the PAC-10. USC has only lost one game outside of PAC-10 play since 2002 (Loss to Kansas State). That was the National Championship game when USC lost to Texas in 2006. Auburn fans remember back in 2003 when USC came to town and beat the Tigers 23-0. Arkansas fans remember when USC rolled into Fayetteville and dominated the Razorbacks 50-14. That same year Arkansas (2006) made it to the SEC Championship game. In 2007 USC traveled to Nebraska to play the Cornhuskers and the Trojans handled the home team 49-31. Just last year USC beat Virginia 52-7 in Charlottesville. The question is can Ohio State get the ranked non-conference opponent off their back this weekend? Will Ohio State go down as a team that plays good football in a mediocre Big 10? Without a win against USC this weekend, that perception will continue to be firmly imprinted in the minds of college football fans. Particularly, after the blowout loss to USC last year and the two National Championship games the two years before.
Believe it or not but the weakest link of the Ohio State defense last five years have been the defensive line (statistically great run defenses because of the great OSU linebackers). USC has arguably the best offensive line in the country this year. If Ohio State doesn’t get creative with stunts and blitz packages, the USC offensive line will control the line of scrimmage early and often. USC ran for over 340 yards against San Jose State last week and we know the trouble Ohio State had with Navy. I think USC wins this game fairly close. USC wins 35-21.
Notre Dame @ Michigan
Notre Dame and Michigan easily beat two respectable opponents last week, which changed the national level of interest of this game dramatically. These are the two best college football programs in the history of college football. Michigan has more total wins than any team and the highest winning percentage in football history (Notre Dame is now third in wins after Texas past them last year). No one would know this about these teams if you were introduced to college football a few years ago. Notre Dame and Michigan made big statements with their wins last week. These two historic football programs are both tired of getting their behinds kicked and are set to prove it this year. Unfortunately, one of these teams will lose tomorrow. Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis have taken their respected teams from scratch and totally rebuilt them (Weis has had more time to do this) to fit each coaches system. Jimmy Clausen is has a war torn veteran and the hard knocks Notre Dame has taken the last few years are starting to pay off. Michigan’s schedule is favorable the next few games as they face off against Eastern Michigan and Indiana in the Big House. So, if Rich Rod and crew can beat Notre Dame, Michigan will probably be 4-0 going into the tougher part of their schedule.
Notre Dame will play a very aggressive scheme against Michigan. Notre Dame had two sacks and four tackles for losses against Nevada (resulting in a 35-0 victory). Notre Dame defensive coordinator John Tenuta will blitz and try to stop Michigan’s offense before it has a chance to get any momentum. Nevada returned its offensive backfield from last year which averaged 278 yards per game running the football (third in the nation last year). Nevada and Michigan run similar spread offensives (Nevada out of the Pistol formation versus shotgun) and Notre Dame was able to shut down the veteran Nevada spread attack. As much as this hurts to predict this outcome, I think Notre Dame will wear out a very young Michigan team in the second half. Notre Dame wins 27-17.
Quick Picks:
East Carolina @ West Virginia
This will be a close battle with two evenly matched teams. West Virginia’s defense should hold off East Carolina long enough for Noel Devin to do his thing. West Virginia wins 24-17
South Carolina @ Georgia
This game clearly won’t be a barn burner. Georgia will get on track after a tough game last week against Oklahoma State. Georgia should be able to control the trenches and squeak out a low scoring hard hitting battle. Georgia wins 21-17
Houston @ Oklahoma State
Last year these two teams played in a slug fest high scoring match up. Houston will have a tough time stopping Oklahoma State’s offense. Eventually, Houston wears down and Oklahoma State pulls ahead in the fourth quarter. Lots of offense in this game. Oklahoma State wins 41-38
UCLA @ Tennessee
Tennessee’s defense will control the Bruins. Don’t expect Tennessee to explode on offense like they did against Western Kentucky, but it won’t be that far off. Check out running back Bryce Brown for Tennessee. He was rated the number one running back in high school last year. Tennessee rolls 41-17.
Enjoy the weekend. Talk with you next week.
Greetings College Football Fans,
How about that first week of college football? Lets dive right into what we think will happen this week.
This week’s BIG games:
USC @ Ohio State
Ohio State has finally has a chance to get the non-conference ranked opponent monkey off its back. However, USC owns the Big 10, and everyone outside the PAC-10. USC has only lost one game outside of PAC-10 play since 2002 (Loss to Kansas State). That was the National Championship game when USC lost to Texas in 2006. Auburn fans remember back in 2003 when USC came to town and beat the Tigers 23-0. Arkansas fans remember when USC rolled into Fayetteville and dominated the Razorbacks 50-14. That same year Arkansas (2006) made it to the SEC Championship game. In 2007 USC traveled to Nebraska to play the Cornhuskers and the Trojans handled the home team 49-31. Just last year USC beat Virginia 52-7 in Charlottesville. The question is can Ohio State get the ranked non-conference opponent off their back this weekend? Will Ohio State go down as a team that plays good football in a mediocre Big 10? Without a win against USC this weekend, that perception will continue to be firmly imprinted in the minds of college football fans. Particularly, after the blowout loss to USC last year and the two National Championship games the two years before.
Believe it or not but the weakest link of the Ohio State defense last five years have been the defensive line (statistically great run defenses because of the great OSU linebackers). USC has arguably the best offensive line in the country this year. If Ohio State doesn’t get creative with stunts and blitz packages, the USC offensive line will control the line of scrimmage early and often. USC ran for over 340 yards against San Jose State last week and we know the trouble Ohio State had with Navy. I think USC wins this game fairly close. USC wins 35-21.
Notre Dame @ Michigan
Notre Dame and Michigan easily beat two respectable opponents last week, which changed the national level of interest of this game dramatically. These are the two best college football programs in the history of college football. Michigan has more total wins than any team and the highest winning percentage in football history (Notre Dame is now third in wins after Texas past them last year). No one would know this about these teams if you were introduced to college football a few years ago. Notre Dame and Michigan made big statements with their wins last week. These two historic football programs are both tired of getting their behinds kicked and are set to prove it this year. Unfortunately, one of these teams will lose tomorrow. Rich Rodriguez and Charlie Weis have taken their respected teams from scratch and totally rebuilt them (Weis has had more time to do this) to fit each coaches system. Jimmy Clausen is has a war torn veteran and the hard knocks Notre Dame has taken the last few years are starting to pay off. Michigan’s schedule is favorable the next few games as they face off against Eastern Michigan and Indiana in the Big House. So, if Rich Rod and crew can beat Notre Dame, Michigan will probably be 4-0 going into the tougher part of their schedule.
Notre Dame will play a very aggressive scheme against Michigan. Notre Dame had two sacks and four tackles for losses against Nevada (resulting in a 35-0 victory). Notre Dame defensive coordinator John Tenuta will blitz and try to stop Michigan’s offense before it has a chance to get any momentum. Nevada returned its offensive backfield from last year which averaged 278 yards per game running the football (third in the nation last year). Nevada and Michigan run similar spread offensives (Nevada out of the Pistol formation versus shotgun) and Notre Dame was able to shut down the veteran Nevada spread attack. As much as this hurts to predict this outcome, I think Notre Dame will wear out a very young Michigan team in the second half. Notre Dame wins 27-17.
Quick Picks:
East Carolina @ West Virginia
This will be a close battle with two evenly matched teams. West Virginia’s defense should hold off East Carolina long enough for Noel Devin to do his thing. West Virginia wins 24-17
South Carolina @ Georgia
This game clearly won’t be a barn burner. Georgia will get on track after a tough game last week against Oklahoma State. Georgia should be able to control the trenches and squeak out a low scoring hard hitting battle. Georgia wins 21-17
Houston @ Oklahoma State
Last year these two teams played in a slug fest high scoring match up. Houston will have a tough time stopping Oklahoma State’s offense. Eventually, Houston wears down and Oklahoma State pulls ahead in the fourth quarter. Lots of offense in this game. Oklahoma State wins 41-38
UCLA @ Tennessee
Tennessee’s defense will control the Bruins. Don’t expect Tennessee to explode on offense like they did against Western Kentucky, but it won’t be that far off. Check out running back Bryce Brown for Tennessee. He was rated the number one running back in high school last year. Tennessee rolls 41-17.
Enjoy the weekend. Talk with you next week.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Wonderful Week One
The 2009 College Football season is finally here!
Greetings college football fans,
I am back this year to share my college football thoughts with you. This year I’ve decided to upgrade to a blog instead of the antiquated word document. I suppose Blogs are antiquated with the popularity Twitter. I won’t be Tweeting anytime soon.
So where do we start? How about the most intriguing games of this first week.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
This game reminds me of last year’s opening game featuring Alabama versus Clemson. This time last year Clemson was projected to win the ACC and Alabama was predicted to be competitive in the SEC. The game ended with Alabama beating Clemson 34-10. This year’s SEC vs. ACC kickoff game is a splitting image of last year’s game. This time Virginia Tech is predicted to win the ACC and Alabama is predicted to be competitive in the SEC. If Alabama win this game, they will have a fairly smooth ride before they get to Oxford, MS. If Virginia Tech wins this game, it will literally be one of the biggest wins in school history. Think about that for a minute! A Virginia Tech win will take them out of the ACC cage of mediocrity and escalate them into a national power.
Unfortunately, Virginia Tech is not known for it’s passing game. As you know VT’s top back Darren Evans is out for the season. Virginia Tech typically reloads at the running back position, but not at the last minute against one of the best defenses in the country. Virginia Tech finished ranked 111 in the country last year in passing yards. This clearly won’t be a high scoring game with these two great defenses, but Alabama will score more points than Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech will probably open up the playbook for this game, but they don’t have a playbook that's deep enough for Bama. Alabama wins 26-7
Miami @ Florida State
I love this rivalry. I remember when these two teams would play each other both ranked in the top five in the country. The energy in this game is always intense like an NFL playoff game. This year the winner of this game will be in a decent position to elevate their ranking to that of the good old days. Miami almost played their entire #7 recruiting class a year ago. This year the youngsters will be better and more experienced. Florida State was able to get some momentum last year with their nine win season and clearly hope to build on their relative success.
Florida State relied on Antone Smith to run the football last year, but he gone. However, FSU’s offensive line is one of the best in the country (Phil Steel ranks the OL #7). Christian Ponder is a great athlete at quarterback. He has the ability to run effectively when he gets in trouble. Running backs Jermaine Thomas and Tavares Pressley will more than make up for Antone Smith’s departure. If Florida State can pick up from last year’s running game, Miami will be challenged, also having to defend an improved passing game. These two teams are evenly matched from a talent perspective. Where they differ is at quarterback. I like Miami’s young QB and he will continue to improve (Jacory Harris), but Christian Ponder has just enough big game experience to make the difference in an evenly matched rivalry game. I think Florida State continues the momentum they generated last year. Florida State wins 31-21
Georgia @ Oklahoma State
I think this is the best match up of the weekend. This game not only features two great teams, but also the two best conferences with major national championship implications riding on this game. A few years ago, Georgia pummeled Oklahoma State in Athens. If Oklahoma State can win, they will be elevated to the next level with Texas and Oklahoma and position themselves nicely in the hunt for the Big 12. Actually, this is a huge game for the Big 12, as they were man handled by the SEC last year (Texas Tech losing to Ole Miss & Oklahoma losing to Florida). Oklahoma State can start a new argument for the best conference in the land if they beat Georgia. What’s interesting for Georgia is that Oklahoma State is just another tough game. After the Oklahoma State game, Georgia has the luxury of playing South Carolina, Arkansas, Arizona State LSU and Tennessee consecutively (WOW). We haven’t even mentioned Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State is just another game for Georgia and they play good football on the road.
Georgia will run the football against Oklahoma State. Good old smash mouth football. Caleb King is hurt, but somewhere on the bench is another Knowshon Moreno. Oregon and Oklahoma ran the football all over Oklahoma State last year. It’s reasonable to assume Georgia can do the same. Georgia has the O-Line and depth at running back to rush for 200 plus yards. If they achieve that they will win. This will be a knockdown, drag out, high scoring game with both teams scoring a lot of points. This one should keep you at the edge of your seat. It would notbe a surprise if this game went into overtime. The edge goes to Georgia’s defense. Georgia wins 41-34.
Missouri vs. Illinois
Here is another high scoring game. This will be another 1,000 yard combined offensive effort. No one is talking about either of these teams. One of these teams could be a sleeper. Did you know Juice Williams let the Big 10 in passing last year throwing for over 3,000 yards? Chase Daniel is gone for Missouri, but Blaine Gabbert was ranked much higher than Daniel coming out of high school.
I think this game will come down to the last team with the ball wins in a track meet. Illinois seems to never win this game. I don’t see that changing this year. Missouri wins 42-35.
BYU vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is ranked on everyone’s top three teams in the country. Oklahoma lost a few good receivers from last year’s team. Their offensive line is also rebuilding. But the guys that accounted for about 70% of their touchdowns are back and the defensive will be better than last year. With all that said, this could be an upset alert for Oklahoma. Remember three years ago when Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl? If Oklahoma isn’t ready BYU could serve them. However, if Oklahoma is ready BYU doesn’t have a chance.
With Oklahoma’s o-line rebuilding, they won’t be completely functioning at full capacity until the Big 12 schedule starts. This could be the sweet spot for the upset if BYU’s defense can get enough pressure on Sam Bradford . For some reason I have a strange feeling about this game (which means nothing). Since we are not putting money on this game, BYU pulls of the stunning upset. BYU wins 38-35 on a last second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers
Nothing like starting your season with a key conference game. The team that wins this game will be in first place in the Big East and the team that loses will be in last, at least for the first three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense was decimated by graduation. Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country. He does more with less better than any coach in college football. If there is a coach that can still win with what Cincinnati has lost, its Kelly. Could this be the year that Rutgers gets a BCS birth? They have developed a winning mentality and expect to win every week.
The quarterback is arguably the most important position on the field and Rutgers is rebuilding here. Cincinnati has their starter back from last year (Tony Pike), who let Cincinnati to a BCS bowl. Cincinnati’s defense will have to develop as a unit, but Cincinnati’s offense has the ability to carry the defense until that happens. Wide receiver, Marty Gillard is the best of an impressive receiving core for Cincinnati. Rutgers defense may be a little light in the secondary and may be susceptible to the run. Rutgers got off to a slow start last year. If they start the season the same way this year they will lose. This game will be a battle in New Jersey. Cincinnati pulls out an exciting one. Cincinnati wins 37-25. Sorry New Jersey friends.
Western Michigan @ Michigan
We are talking about my Wolverines here. I will try to be unbiased. Once things for sure, I miss being a football super power. All Rich Rodriguez has to do is win, and the controversy will be forgotten. Michigan fans will have a short memory if the Wolverines can win at least seven games (looking good doing it). If Michigan loses this year, than Rich Rodriguez will look worse than Bob Davie when he took over Notre Dame after Low Holtz. Two years ago Western Michigan rolled into Iowa City and beat good Iowa football team. Last year Illinois lost to Western Michigan 23-17. If Michigan loses to Western Michigan all hell will break loose (in terms of the fan patients). Michigan faces Notre Dame the following week. If Michigan can beat Western Michigan and Notre Dame they will probably be 4-0 before their schedule gets tough (more wins than last year total of three).
Western Michigan has no defense (theoretically) to compete with Michigan’s athletes. Michigan has two true freshman quarterbacks . Tate Forcier has been compared to a young Colt McCoy and Denard Robinson has been compared to Pat White (Robinson ran a 4.32 40 in camp),but they’re both true freshman. Michigan also has Nick Sheridan back from last year. Rodriguez said he will play all three QBs to help create separation on the depth chart. The race will come down to Forcier and Robinson. Michigan will win a tough first game. Michigan wins 35-24.
Next week I will share the first installment of the Rob Rankings.
Have a great weekend college football fans and I’ll catch up with you next week.
Greetings college football fans,
I am back this year to share my college football thoughts with you. This year I’ve decided to upgrade to a blog instead of the antiquated word document. I suppose Blogs are antiquated with the popularity Twitter. I won’t be Tweeting anytime soon.
So where do we start? How about the most intriguing games of this first week.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
This game reminds me of last year’s opening game featuring Alabama versus Clemson. This time last year Clemson was projected to win the ACC and Alabama was predicted to be competitive in the SEC. The game ended with Alabama beating Clemson 34-10. This year’s SEC vs. ACC kickoff game is a splitting image of last year’s game. This time Virginia Tech is predicted to win the ACC and Alabama is predicted to be competitive in the SEC. If Alabama win this game, they will have a fairly smooth ride before they get to Oxford, MS. If Virginia Tech wins this game, it will literally be one of the biggest wins in school history. Think about that for a minute! A Virginia Tech win will take them out of the ACC cage of mediocrity and escalate them into a national power.
Unfortunately, Virginia Tech is not known for it’s passing game. As you know VT’s top back Darren Evans is out for the season. Virginia Tech typically reloads at the running back position, but not at the last minute against one of the best defenses in the country. Virginia Tech finished ranked 111 in the country last year in passing yards. This clearly won’t be a high scoring game with these two great defenses, but Alabama will score more points than Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech will probably open up the playbook for this game, but they don’t have a playbook that's deep enough for Bama. Alabama wins 26-7
Miami @ Florida State
I love this rivalry. I remember when these two teams would play each other both ranked in the top five in the country. The energy in this game is always intense like an NFL playoff game. This year the winner of this game will be in a decent position to elevate their ranking to that of the good old days. Miami almost played their entire #7 recruiting class a year ago. This year the youngsters will be better and more experienced. Florida State was able to get some momentum last year with their nine win season and clearly hope to build on their relative success.
Florida State relied on Antone Smith to run the football last year, but he gone. However, FSU’s offensive line is one of the best in the country (Phil Steel ranks the OL #7). Christian Ponder is a great athlete at quarterback. He has the ability to run effectively when he gets in trouble. Running backs Jermaine Thomas and Tavares Pressley will more than make up for Antone Smith’s departure. If Florida State can pick up from last year’s running game, Miami will be challenged, also having to defend an improved passing game. These two teams are evenly matched from a talent perspective. Where they differ is at quarterback. I like Miami’s young QB and he will continue to improve (Jacory Harris), but Christian Ponder has just enough big game experience to make the difference in an evenly matched rivalry game. I think Florida State continues the momentum they generated last year. Florida State wins 31-21
Georgia @ Oklahoma State
I think this is the best match up of the weekend. This game not only features two great teams, but also the two best conferences with major national championship implications riding on this game. A few years ago, Georgia pummeled Oklahoma State in Athens. If Oklahoma State can win, they will be elevated to the next level with Texas and Oklahoma and position themselves nicely in the hunt for the Big 12. Actually, this is a huge game for the Big 12, as they were man handled by the SEC last year (Texas Tech losing to Ole Miss & Oklahoma losing to Florida). Oklahoma State can start a new argument for the best conference in the land if they beat Georgia. What’s interesting for Georgia is that Oklahoma State is just another tough game. After the Oklahoma State game, Georgia has the luxury of playing South Carolina, Arkansas, Arizona State LSU and Tennessee consecutively (WOW). We haven’t even mentioned Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State is just another game for Georgia and they play good football on the road.
Georgia will run the football against Oklahoma State. Good old smash mouth football. Caleb King is hurt, but somewhere on the bench is another Knowshon Moreno. Oregon and Oklahoma ran the football all over Oklahoma State last year. It’s reasonable to assume Georgia can do the same. Georgia has the O-Line and depth at running back to rush for 200 plus yards. If they achieve that they will win. This will be a knockdown, drag out, high scoring game with both teams scoring a lot of points. This one should keep you at the edge of your seat. It would notbe a surprise if this game went into overtime. The edge goes to Georgia’s defense. Georgia wins 41-34.
Missouri vs. Illinois
Here is another high scoring game. This will be another 1,000 yard combined offensive effort. No one is talking about either of these teams. One of these teams could be a sleeper. Did you know Juice Williams let the Big 10 in passing last year throwing for over 3,000 yards? Chase Daniel is gone for Missouri, but Blaine Gabbert was ranked much higher than Daniel coming out of high school.
I think this game will come down to the last team with the ball wins in a track meet. Illinois seems to never win this game. I don’t see that changing this year. Missouri wins 42-35.
BYU vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is ranked on everyone’s top three teams in the country. Oklahoma lost a few good receivers from last year’s team. Their offensive line is also rebuilding. But the guys that accounted for about 70% of their touchdowns are back and the defensive will be better than last year. With all that said, this could be an upset alert for Oklahoma. Remember three years ago when Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl? If Oklahoma isn’t ready BYU could serve them. However, if Oklahoma is ready BYU doesn’t have a chance.
With Oklahoma’s o-line rebuilding, they won’t be completely functioning at full capacity until the Big 12 schedule starts. This could be the sweet spot for the upset if BYU’s defense can get enough pressure on Sam Bradford . For some reason I have a strange feeling about this game (which means nothing). Since we are not putting money on this game, BYU pulls of the stunning upset. BYU wins 38-35 on a last second field goal.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers
Nothing like starting your season with a key conference game. The team that wins this game will be in first place in the Big East and the team that loses will be in last, at least for the first three weeks. Cincinnati’s defense was decimated by graduation. Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country. He does more with less better than any coach in college football. If there is a coach that can still win with what Cincinnati has lost, its Kelly. Could this be the year that Rutgers gets a BCS birth? They have developed a winning mentality and expect to win every week.
The quarterback is arguably the most important position on the field and Rutgers is rebuilding here. Cincinnati has their starter back from last year (Tony Pike), who let Cincinnati to a BCS bowl. Cincinnati’s defense will have to develop as a unit, but Cincinnati’s offense has the ability to carry the defense until that happens. Wide receiver, Marty Gillard is the best of an impressive receiving core for Cincinnati. Rutgers defense may be a little light in the secondary and may be susceptible to the run. Rutgers got off to a slow start last year. If they start the season the same way this year they will lose. This game will be a battle in New Jersey. Cincinnati pulls out an exciting one. Cincinnati wins 37-25. Sorry New Jersey friends.
Western Michigan @ Michigan
We are talking about my Wolverines here. I will try to be unbiased. Once things for sure, I miss being a football super power. All Rich Rodriguez has to do is win, and the controversy will be forgotten. Michigan fans will have a short memory if the Wolverines can win at least seven games (looking good doing it). If Michigan loses this year, than Rich Rodriguez will look worse than Bob Davie when he took over Notre Dame after Low Holtz. Two years ago Western Michigan rolled into Iowa City and beat good Iowa football team. Last year Illinois lost to Western Michigan 23-17. If Michigan loses to Western Michigan all hell will break loose (in terms of the fan patients). Michigan faces Notre Dame the following week. If Michigan can beat Western Michigan and Notre Dame they will probably be 4-0 before their schedule gets tough (more wins than last year total of three).
Western Michigan has no defense (theoretically) to compete with Michigan’s athletes. Michigan has two true freshman quarterbacks . Tate Forcier has been compared to a young Colt McCoy and Denard Robinson has been compared to Pat White (Robinson ran a 4.32 40 in camp),but they’re both true freshman. Michigan also has Nick Sheridan back from last year. Rodriguez said he will play all three QBs to help create separation on the depth chart. The race will come down to Forcier and Robinson. Michigan will win a tough first game. Michigan wins 35-24.
Next week I will share the first installment of the Rob Rankings.
Have a great weekend college football fans and I’ll catch up with you next week.
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